Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Lithium

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Dona Ferentes said:
.“We believe that by applying our advantages in this space we can bring on a much-needed resource ... we can bring it on at much lower cost and I think importantly, with much less environmental impact versus say the open mining ..
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more ....
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Exxon Mobil aims to establish itself as a prominent player in the US lithium market. Unlike traditional methods of acquisition, Exxon is taking a grassroots approach, focusing on a novel production method. The company plans to leverage its expertise in drilling, in collaboration with partner Tetra, to tap into the vast potential of the Smackover formation, spanning 120,000 acres across multiple US states.

Exxon's strategy involves utilising Tetra's technology based on the unproven Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) process. If successful, this approach could reduce water consumption and accelerate lithium production. Their chosen location in southern Arkansas aims to start producing battery-grade lithium by 2027, with a goal to supply enough for one million electric vehicles annually by 2030.

Rather than mining hard rock deposits, Exxon intends to extract lithium from brine deposits in the Smackover formation, distinguishing its approach from the practices in Australia. Initially, they plan to produce lithium carbonate, similar to operations in Chile and parts of Argentina, sufficient for approximately 100,000 EV batteries annually.

Exxon will face competition from smaller lithium-focused rivals like Albemarle, Livent (set to merge with Allkem), and various companies in Canada and the Carolinas. Notably, Exxon enters the sector during a period of declining prices for battery-grade carbonate, hydroxide lithium, and spodumene ore.

Exxon's partnership with Tetra involves developing over 6,100 lithium-rich acres in Arkansas. The company has been conducting drilling and testing to evaluate the Smackover Formation's potential, but the challenging depth of the brine deposits, at around 109,000 feet underground, poses significant logistical and cost considerations.

Crucially, Exxon is exploring the unproven DLE technology for commercial operations, a move aligned with Chile's interest in conserving water reserves. The success of DLE is pivotal for both Exxon and the global lithium industry.

Exxon's commitment to ramping up domestic lithium production aligns with its vision of supporting the transition to electric vehicles and reducing its environmental footprint. As Dan Ammann, President of Exxon's Low Carbon Solutions Business, emphasizes, they aim to lead the way in setting a high environmental standard for lithium production in the US.
 
lithium seems to be losing its spectacular attraction.
From Zero Hedge
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has crashed in the last 12 months. This downward pressure is attributed to oversupplied markets in Asia, primarily because the global adoption rate of electric vehicles has notably slowed amid high interest rates.

Since November 2022, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China plunged from $84,500 per metric ton to $18,630, or about a 78% decline.

2023-11-23_07-06-09.png

According to forecasts from industry consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the global lithium market won't rebalance and return to a deficit until 2028.

General Motors, Honda, LG Energy Solution, and other auto and battery manufacturers have dialed back EV expansion plans in recent months, mainly because rising interest rates are curbing demand. This has created a global supply glut for the battery metal.

BloombergNEF's Allan Ray Restauro said, "With lithium supply growing more next year, we are likely going to see prices falling further, adding, "On the demand side, some regional differences on EV sales have been dragging sentiment down around the industry."

The world's second-largest lithium producer, Chilean miner SQM, recently blamed the plunge in lithium prices on excess inventory, especially in Asia.
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Mick
 
Some sage sounding comments about lithium in this excerpt ripped from Warwick Grigor's far east capital weekly newsletter. Sort of saying I think that lithium stocks are a craze unsupported by fundamentals such as the well recognised plentifulness of the element but also the proliferatiion of companies claiming to have a stake - says a shakeout is inevitable. One reason I've never gone for it is what looks to me like a rapid evolution of disruptive battery technology. That and I like fossil fuels. Also I missed the boat.

Screenshot_20231126-212026_Drive.jpg
 
finicky said:
Some sage sounding comments about lithium in this excerpt ripped from Warwick Grigor's far east capital weekly newsletter. Sort of saying I think that lithium stocks are a craze unsupported by fundamentals such as the well recognised plentifulness of the element but also the proliferatiion of companies claiming to have a stake - says a shakeout is inevitable. One reason I've never gone for it is what looks to me like a rapid evolution of disruptive battery technology. That and I like fossil fuels. Also I missed the boat.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I miss my boat too.
Should never have sold it.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
Yeah, I miss my boat too.
Should never have sold it.
Mick
Click to expand...
achieved my exposure unwittingly by buying WES before they acquired Kidman and MIN a fair while back ( before lithium exposure ) more recently i bought back into IGO because they can still make a profit whilst chasing the lithium dream

am too old to actively chase potential 10-baggers
 
Who would be a buyer ?
Overnight LTHM, ALB and SQM were down between 5 - 8%
It couldn't be that some of these companies are just a little OVERVALUED, could it.
 
Screenshot 2023-12-12 at 6.29.31 pm.png


Steven Glass, portfolio manager from Pella Funds Management, highlights that the primary markets for lithium are EV batteries, other batteries, ceramics and glass. EV batteries are the fastest growing segment by a considerable margin and is the key driver of the lithium market.

There are two types of passenger car EVs – battery EVs (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV). The former are powered entirely by a lithium battery and don’t use petrol. The latter are powered by petrol and a lithium battery that is recharged via an electric socket.

Investors may be surprised that China is the largest consumer of EVs, followed by Europe and then the US.

Glass says most people understand that EV sales are likely to grow considerably but don’t appreciate how much the average amount of lithium per EV is likely to increase. This is the key reason lithium demand is likely to exceed current expectations.

Glass explains there are two primary types of lithium batteries: NMC, made using nickel, manganese and cobalt; and LFP, using iron and phosphate. NMC batteries offer superior performance and dominate the EV battery market outside of China.

LFP batteries are considerably cheaper than NMC, and the performance differential between them has narrowed. LFP batteries are popular in China and are starting to take market share in other countries. Glass calculates that LFP batteries need 15 per cent more lithium than NMC batteries.
 

China exchange adds lithium warehouses to allay fears of short squeeze​


BEIJING, Dec 11 (Reuters) - China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has added more warehouses for lithium carbonate, it said on Monday, a move analysts saw as an effort to alleviate fears of a shortage of cargoes available for January delivery.

China is the world's largest consumer and producer of lithium carbonate and the GFEX contract was only launched on July 21, after the exchangewas set up in 2021 to focus on new energy materials.

In a statement, the exchange said it added three warehouses for delivery of the material used for electric vehicle batteries and raised the minimum guaranteed storage capacity at nine other sites to 5,000 metric tons, from 2,000 tons earlier.

The exchange did not respond to a request for comment.

"The move ... is to calm the irrationality in the futures market," Zhang Weixin, an analyst at China Futures, said of the new warehouses.

"The increase of warehouses showed that there will be abundant volume for physical delivery."

The exchange's most active lithium carbonate contract hit the 7% limit up on Friday, fuelled by concerns about a shortage of material that could be delivered in January, two analysts based in China said.

"People were afraid there would be a short squeeze due to concerns of a lack of sufficient cargoes," said Susan Zou, an analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.
 
Good morning

Been reported via New Corp media outlets:
Lithum stocks on the ASX may come under pressure on Friday after warnings by Finniss mine operator Core Lithium and a note about external challenges by analysts at Citi.

Core's internal review into costs has been sparked by the price of spodumene concentrate declining to more than 80 per cent year to date, including by more than 40 per cent since the end of October.
External pressures persist too, as highlighted in Citi's note.
According to China Customs, import volume for spodumene further slowed in November, it says, with total spodumene import at 378,500 tonnes, which is down 18 per cent month on month.
"Within that, Australia only accounted for 56 per cent of the total imported volume, as some of the Chinese smelters and Australian miners are still in the discussion process of price mechanism, which led to a delayed delivery, and increasing delivery from Africa (Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Nigeria)," the note states.

Have a happy and safe Christmas.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
You've got ever increasing EV sales and the lithium price is going down, sounds a bit odd to me. A lot of the lithium mines we have here deal directly with contracts to battery manufacturers, not much of our spodumene goes to open markets.


Lithium Expert Says China Manipulating Prices Downward​


With lithium prices tanking nearly 60% so far this year, international Lithium expert Joe Lowry says the market isn’t reflecting the reality and blames China for using a “false narrative” to manipulate prices lower as a supply squeeze looms large.

“Everybody knows they have a lithium problem and we’ve seen this year at the beginning of the year, extreme volatility in the China spot market,” Lowry told a conference in Singapore, as reported by Stockhead.

“I think you’re going to see volatility in the lithium space going forward. I believe honestly, that China’s tried to create a false narrative to talk the lithium price down. It’s going to be interesting, but … the way I look at the numbers we’re in a shortage for the rest of this decade,” he added.

China accounts for a large part of the global lithium supply and dominates the global lithium-ion battery supply chain.

On Thursday, China’s key lithium hub saw companies reduce lithium output amid a price collapse and what appears to be weaker electric vehicle demand. Media said major producers were among those who had reduced production; however, none of the producers was named.



Downstream buyers (such as battery factories) are now uncertain as to whether they want to invest in more supplies because the new narrative is that EV outlook isn’t as strong as it was earlier anticipated, and a supply glut is looming.

That has sent prices of lithium carbonate plunging to the point that all of last year’s gains have been lost.

Caixin Global says lithium carbonate has shed 57% so far, and down more than 60% from November.

Lowry says none of this should be true, estimating that we will need 3.7 million tonnes of lithium by 2030 and it “would take 25 world class brine projects to come online in three years” to make that happen.

“That would take 25 world-class brine projects to come online in three years. I promise you that is not going to happen,” he was cited as telling the conference, adding that while there may be “mismatches” between supply and demand and pricing, “the long-term lithium price is going to trend towards high and not low”.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

oilprice.com

Lithium Expert Says China Manipulating Prices Downward | OilPrice.com

With lithium prices tanking nearly 60% so far this year, international Lithium expert Joe Lowry says the market isn’t reflecting the reality and blames China for using a “false narrative” to manipulate prices lower
oilprice.com oilprice.com
 
bk1 said:
There's your problem...
Click to expand...
Joe Lowry has been in the lithium game for a very long time, unlike the large conglomerate analysts that read from second hand data that happens to be shorting the stock and then buying the stock up while it's cheap. The amount of lithium coming out of Africa is laughable compared to everyone else.
 

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Lessons from the battery metals bust​


www.firstlinks.com.au

Lessons from the battery metals bust

The crash in lithium and nickel prices has left companies scrambling to cut production, billionaires red-faced, and investors wondering how a ‘sure thing’ went so wrong. There are plenty of lessons for everyone.
www.firstlinks.com.au www.firstlinks.com.au

my lithium exposure is via WES , MIN and IGO

i saw all the excitement at the small end of town and stepped well back
 
It's not looking good for lithium stocks.


Sayona Mining falls victim to lithium downturn amid short-selling pressure​

  • Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA) shares have sunk nearly 10 per cent today as low lithium prices hit the company
  • The company has been one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX for months alongside Pilbara Minerals (ASX:pLS)
  • SYA is now launching a review to cut costs
  • Shares last traded at 4 cents
 

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