LGL - Lihir Gold

[phoenixrising]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

RK,

Very slow responce, sorry.

I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)

The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.

Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.

Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.

BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

RK,

Very slow responce, sorry.

I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)

The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.

Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.

Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.

BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers

Looks like LHG may fly with the gold price going so high, glad to see you may see some more upside, good luck!
Try this link for code tips (including quotes): https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/bb-codes

 

[JetDollars]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Bloody held, lose too much money on LHG. One trade after the other. Give up on LHG now.

Hey Jet,
Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too.

Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.

BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!

 

[MalteseBull]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

LHG is good to get onto now, its on the wayup!

 

[Ann]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Guys,

Just a chart but not looking as good as it could be to me. Sorry, I am not really a bear, I just call it as I see it.....

 

[Ann]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Let's look at the daily gold price chart.....

If LHG reflects the price of Gold it may be in a spot of bother? Too soon to really call in my opinion.

It would need to break below that MA and the MACD would have to cross below zero.

Then anything in the gold sector may be fair game as a juicy short for those who enjoy toying with things in shorts.

 

[Hopeful]

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy.

From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.

GP

 

[RichKid]

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.

GP

Hi GP,
Chart looks like that of a few gold stocks atm, that support level around 2.40 is important imo (resistance becomes support). Currently in that channel your describe.

 

[Warren]

Re: Gold Stocks

In this sort of environment, yes, hedging is not ideal. However, most pre-production companies needing to secure bank finance for feasibility studies etc are required by the financiers to hedge their production. The financier has no interest in the company's equity performance.

As far as which companies to hold, I think LHG is a very promising story. Its story is simple, it has 20 million ounces of JORC compliant reserves and 20 million in Resource. That is a huge resource for a company that is capitalised at just over $3.5 billion. Its main problem is that it does not produce at the appropriate scale for its resource base. It has been promising production of > 1 million ounces since it listed a decade ago but has been unable to achieve this, and as a result its cash costs are too high and it has struggled to generate significant free cash.

At the moment, the company mines around 8 million tonnes of ore per annum, but only processes about half of that, meaning it generates the costs of a an 8 million tpa company but only the revenue of a 4 mtpa company.

Now, however it has concrete plans for increasing its production rates to an initial 800koz pa. They are looking at adding an additional float and or additional autoclaves to boost production. While the autoclaves consume a lot of power, the company now has access to substantial amounts of cheap geothermal power.

I think this company can turn the corner here, and coupled with strong gold prices and little hedging should have a lot in it. I own this one.


NOTE: These are only my opinions, not financial advice or investment recommendation.

 

[NettAssets]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Is LHG still Overvalued?

 

[Warren]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

How do you define overvalued?

 

[NettAssets]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I was referring to the chart and the fact that although the share price tracked the rise in gold very closely in may the diferential widened as gold continued downward.
I will edit my post and get rid of the "still" I didn't mean to infer that it was in the past.
The change could reflect a really effective hedge book of course that locks in a higher gold price at lower levels but allows high prices to flow through - very hard to achieve in practice I think.
whoops - left it to late I can't edit it!
John

 

[beachbum]

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy.

From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.

It's easy in hindsight to say 2.40 was a great entry but we don't know that is the bottom yet. Yes it will be a great entry if prices continue to rise but I'm with Great Pig and will wait for confirmation of the break in downtrend. Oh how great it would be if we picked the exact bottom for everything.Price doesn't always stop at the 200MA.
Hope it does keep going as I will then be on board with appropriate stop.

Cheers

 

[michael_selway]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

How do you define overvalued?

Hm how high do u think Gold prices can go, and what prices do u think Gold can be sustained indefinitely?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 1.0 9.1 14.9 13.3
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 2.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 9.1 30.1 776.0%
Year Ending 30-12-07 14.9 18.4 63.7%

thx

MS

 

[stockmaster]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I predict gold price can reach 650 in 3 months of time.
LHG - 3.00 - 3.20 in 1 month

 

[Warren]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

How high can gold prices go?? How long is a piece of string? All depends on supply and demand and the activity of speculators. Gold is generally considered a safe-haven investment and is generally subject to greater demand under the following conditions:

1. Declining US Dollar - while the dollar is currently supported by rising US interest rates, the enormous current account deficits that require financing suggest the dollar is due for depreciation.
2. Rising global inflation (esp expectations)
3. Geopolitical concerns (eg terrorism)
4. Global jewellery demand
5. rising oil prices relative to gold - gold becomes a more attractive investment relative to oil. Also, rising oil prices can flow through to inflation and inflation expectations.

Supply on the other hand is more difficult to estimate. Factors affecting supply generally relate to:

1. Central Bank gold sales
2. New mine commissioning.

Currently, economics seem to be favoring a rise in gold prices given rising inflation, rising oil prices etc. Supply shortages should support the gold price.

How far it goes if at all is anyone's guess.

 

[dubiousinfo]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.

 

[nizar]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.

Maybe so but historically, when gold is going up, theres nothing better to hold than LHG

 

[dubiousinfo]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Still its not a great way to kick off the reporting season. Let's hope RIO posts better results on Thursday