LGL - Lihir Gold

[MarcusDZ]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi,
First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?

I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into.

Keep up the informative discussion.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Hi,
First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?

I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into.

Keep up the informative discussion.

Hey Marcus!
Welcome to ASF! Glad to see you've found some useful info here. The best way to find info on gold stocks here on ASF is to either browse through the ASX Stock Chat forum or better still, use the search tool at top of this page, just type in 'gold stock' or something similar.

There are also a list of related threads at the bottom of each page. This thread is mainly for following the price of gold, the individual threads on gold stocks will have more info on what people thing of their prospects. (As you can see I've moved your post to this LHG thread).

Also have a quick look at our forum code of conduct and posting guidelines.

Send me a private message if you have any queries about admin stuff.

good luck!
RichKid
moderator

PS I like the avatar!

 

[bvbfan]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006

Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year

There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more hold than a short term trade.

 

[mime]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

The stocks PE is 85. Anyone else find that a little high?

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006.

Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year.

There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more hold than a short term trade.

Agree with you, so it leaves us a small bullish window going into December, I've posted my technical view in the 'Gold- where is it heading' thread.

Mime,
If that is the correct PE for LHG then obviously it's very high but then I consider the markets to be far from rational as it reflects people's behaviour (if you look at the world you know how irrational we can be) so I'm just following the trend. But your figure is cause for concern for the risk averse, I'll be watching gold over the weekend but expect some sort of pullback before another strong leg higher for LHG in tune with gold's attempt at 500.

Also, from a fundamentals point of view word is that value pickers like Fat prophets are tipping LHG (I don't have proof) so maybe they know something we don't.

 

[mime]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?

Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?

Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?

Hi Mime,
Thanks for the comparison, I suspected 85 may have been a different figure (ie not the price earning ratio). So the pe ratio appears to be 7 which to my uninformed mind appears to be very low but it is a volatile stock.

The attachment is a capture of the financials as of eod today, from the Fin Review site www.afr.com.au- use the stock quote tool on the right of the frontpage.

Not sure what the industry average is but LHG is one of those bigger stocks more likely to be taken over as global (eg US) gold stock pe's maybe higher.

 

[bvbfan]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Could be a P/E based on last years financials (85) vs forecast earnings for current year (7)

 

[JetDollars]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

RK,

Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.

Been waiting for quite a long time now.

May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.

Hey Jet,

Gold has had some wild times, big jump yesterday, and I mean big, look at the immediate trend and the recent close. LHG has certainly told us where it prefers to head. Look at volume picking up now, big numbers means big boys are in. Still a volatile stock but is trending strongly.

Dehedging and cost reductions have changed the complexion of LHG compared to same time last year imo. Still I'm bearish pog too, shame it hasn't realised it!

I'm in LHG and will take a bet each way. Note the increase in vol on upswings and decline on pullbacks. Note that the last price and volume bars are duplicates (just an error in chart).

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

RK,

Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.

Been waiting for quite a long time now.

May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.

Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.

 

[JetDollars]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.

So might have to buy call tomorrow.

or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...

Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.

So might have to buy call tomorrow.

or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...

Hey Jet,
Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too.

Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.

BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Some profit taking on high volume, next issue is that recent trendline, will it hold? Might be a strong retracement, gold up but LHG down. On the way up it was high vol on up days and low vol on down days. These last few days have been the opposite. I'm watching for a reversal but as they say, be slow to sell while a trend is in place.

 

[smrt-guy]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

I've done pretty well out of Lihir the last couple of years, but after the landslide this year I started to have concerns. It really brought home the fact that not only is this stock unhedged (or at least comparitively so compared to other large cap operators) so feels the most impact of the gold price when it corrects, but it is a single mine operator and only needs one major incident to stop all production entirely.

While being unhedged gives it lots of upside in a bullish market I've decided it's run hard of late and now the potential risks don't justify the rewards for me at this point. I've got my funds in alternative gold stocks at the moment.

Each to their own though

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Time
Last Traded Price Volume
10:17:23 am $2.20 308,43O
and at 4.15pm it was $2.32 wonder how the 3% losers stacked up today, I must be wearing blinkers again. The secret is now make when do you bank the profit just make you have the stop in, but somehow this might be in the 3's if gold breaks through tonight another big jump on the cards and gold might well top $520US before it takes a dip again. Some gold bulls already calling $1000US over the next few years.
Wherever there are winners there must be losers, 97% of them, are they those who trade without a stop. I am so glad I took the stop of Lihir last week though and usually I don't this bull gold run looks good.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

That RIO offload has seen some dramatic action with LHG today. No reason at all now for a technical trader to be long in LHG imho as the immediate trend has broken. I've been watching the depth and big sell orders are going through, the buy order are mainly much smaller parcels so you can guess who's buying and who's selling.

Gold has pulled back, can't say if it's a temporary pullback on profit taking or the start of a larger re-retracement, I expect some sort of retest of 500 since there is still a lot of momentum in the pog- just posted an interesting article in the 'Gold- where is it heading?' thread.

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Ouch that hurt big time.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Ouch that hurt big time.

It's times like this that remind us of the importance of money and risk management, nothing is accurately predictable in the stock market, as Nick Radge says in his new book the outcome is unknown and there will be a few mishaps like this from time to time but good mgmt will see us survive. Hope you get through this Brer, we all cop one from time to time, I certainly didn't see this coming (see HDR thread for possibility of same occurring there).

 

[phoenixrising]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.

Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
Stops are worthless in these gap situations.

Anyway didn't drop past my buy price, so in front.
Beware the big boys when they come out to play.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?

Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.

Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
Stops are worthless in these gap situations.

Hi Phoenix,
Can you use Guaranteed Stop Losses (GSL) through your CFD provider? If so if you trail it do you have to pay every time you move up the price? Always a good idea when you're moving with a volatile stock using CFD's imo.