LGL - Lihir Gold

blues · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Could explain LHG rise today. This was on the news wires.

0157 GMT [Dow Jones] Lihir (LHG.AU) up 5.8% at A$3.45, hit 9-month high of A$3.48 on good volume of 22 million shares. Gold price surge has lifted most gold stocks, but takeover talk on Lihir is getting louder. One dealer cites talk of a A$4.25/share cash offer from AngloGold Ashanti next week. Another hears a bid above A$4.00 may be coming after the close today. Lihir not immediately available for comment. Next resistance at record high of A$3.64, support at A$3.25. (DWR)

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

blues said:
Could explain LHG rise today. This was on the news wires.

0157 GMT [Dow Jones] Lihir (LHG.AU) up 5.8% at A$3.45, hit 9-month high of A$3.48 on good volume of 22 million shares. Gold price surge has lifted most gold stocks, but takeover talk on Lihir is getting louder. One dealer cites talk of a A$4.25/share cash offer from AngloGold Ashanti next week. Another hears a bid above A$4.00 may be coming after the close today. Lihir not immediately available for comment. Next resistance at record high of A$3.64, support at A$3.25. (DWR)

Haha, I kill me. Psychology is fun isn't it?

If there is a pre-open T/O bid tomorrow I'll spit chips. My own fault. I should have applied my "law of inverse interest" and bought, instead of posting about the fact that no-one was talking about this on the forum.

The ASX Gorilla.

Halba · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

good luck to the buyer @ $4+

i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks

Sean K · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Halba said:
good luck to the buyer @ $4+

i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks

Maybe it'll be a nice tax right off...

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Halba said:
good luck to the buyer @ $4+

i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks

That's the beauty of technical analysis and trend following. The part about value isn't our jigsaw puzzle to solve...we've just got to identify the foot prints in the sand and decide what they mean and whether/when to follow them.

haemitite · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

theasxgorilla said:
That's the beauty of technical analysis and trend following. The part about value isn't our jigsaw puzzle to solve...we've just got to identify the foot prints in the sand and decide what they mean and whether/when to follow them.

and its a little easier than actually understanding the business

rederob · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

haemitite said:
and its a little easier than actually understanding the business

Maybe, but my average entry price is very low on 12500shares and LHG remains my pick of the global gold equities.

Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

rederob said:
Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.

Can't do I'm afraid...but I can show you one that illustrates many people with big brains and/or expertise in gold, like yourself (meant in the kindest possible way) scrambling to buy more shares than are available on the supply side and nudging price higher, through previous resistance levels, with increasing volume.

haemitite · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

rederob said:
Maybe, but my average entry price is very low on 12500shares and LHG remains my pick of the global gold equities.

Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.

I bought LHG at 1.02 and OXR at 0.87 on fundamentals. I'm ok with that.

rederob · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

theasxgorilla said:
Can't do I'm afraid...but I can show you one that illustrates many people with big brains and/or expertise in gold, like yourself (meant in the kindest possible way) scrambling to buy more shares than are available on the supply side and nudging price higher, through previous resistance levels, with increasing volume.

asx'grilla
Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

rederob said:
asx'grilla
Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.

...are you showing off ?

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

rederob said:
asx'grilla
Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.

Excellent timing and buy, BTW, and going forward, I believe you will clean up.

Well done, you must be very pleased.

theasxgorilla · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

rederob said:
asx'grilla
Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.

rederob,

Sorry for the multiple posts...I have a question or two now.

Fundamentals are not my strong suit, and I know very little about gold shares (disclaimer).

From a fundamental stand point, does LHG continue to present good value today, in your opinion...AND therefore, are you adding to OR would you add to your current position(s)? OR, is this continuation of the up-move that you bought at a DIP, entering into a overvalued, over-reacting phase?

Thanks in advance for your input.

The ASX Gorilla.

rederob · 22 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

theasxgorilla said:
rederob,

Sorry for the multiple posts...I have a question or two now.

Fundamentals are not my strong suit, and I know very little about gold shares (disclaimer).

From a fundamental stand point, does LHG continue to present good value today, in your opinion...AND therefore, are you adding to OR would you add to your current position(s)? OR, is this continuation of the up-move that you bought at a DIP, entering into a overvalued, over-reacting phase?

Thanks in advance for your input.

The ASX Gorilla.

I thought POG was going to move higher last September - but it fizzled.
You will be hard pressed to find a better gold stock than LHG for the following reasons:
Cash cost in lowest quartile
Energy costs amongst lowest in market due to geothermal plant - massive future savings
Gold reserves at Lihir rank in world top 5
Gold production in top 20 (top 10 by end of year)
Ballarat Goldfields merger will take LHG to number 5 in the gold production ranks in next 2 years
Mining in politically stable economies with excellent access to highly skilled mining workforce
LHG has a low hedging profile, so strong exposure to higher spot prices will benefit it during POG increases

I am not going to add to my present LHG exposure for now, but might after the next major retrace.
For those not owning a gold equity, I think there remains strong upside for LHG as a long term hold, with possible short term weakness allowing a cheaper entry in the near term.
I suspect LHG will have the capacity to offer a dividend within the year and this may add to this stock's popularity: Apart from any "takeover" premium that is yet to lock in!

theasxgorilla · 23 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Rederob,

Terrific analysis, thank you.

In a technical sense, IF you give creedence to that, any price action below $3.27 is negative. In particular a weekly close below that level would be bad, and even worse would be price action or a weekly close below $3.13.

the barry · 23 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Someone has taken a chunk of lhg prior to the market opening, 17 million shares. Hopefully that willl continue the upward momentum.

bvbfan · 23 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Were they exercise of options?

Jadefox · 23 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

bvbfan said:
Were they exercise of options?

Most probably - options expiry yesterday.

chops_a_must · 26 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Could be looking at a breakout here. Buyers steadily eating up sellers. Looking good.

Dr Doom · 26 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

My 2c worth on todays very good run. Watching the tape for the afternoon session saw 358 support fade at the finish suggesting tomorrow may be a consolidation day, subject to pog. Comments?.

LGL - Lihir Gold

blues

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Halba

Sean K

Moderator

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

haemitite

rederob

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theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

haemitite

rederob

theasxgorilla

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theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

rederob

theasxgorilla

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