LGL - Lihir Gold

Jadefox · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

the barry said:
Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.

My sincere apologies for not clarifying in my post that I was referring to the
commitment of traders report for the gold futures market ( info at http://www.cftc.gov/). Commercials (producers, bullion banks, etc) added to their short positions recently.

It's fairly widely recognized that the gold market has a history of being manipulated and that a large commercial short position often precedes a pullback or price decline. (hope it's not the case this time)

As the post was mainly concerning the US dollar and its influence on the gold price I thought that it would be understood as referring to the metal.
Reading it back I can see how it could have been misleading.

The move up today was reassuring - let's see if it can clear the old high and head into blue sky!

Kauri · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

michael_selway said:
Not bad, I wonder if gold will ever crash?

thx

MS

Not wanting a crash, but 640ish would be nice.....

cxmdar

Kauri

Sean K · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

LHG cracking $3.25 was very important IMO. Gold cracking $660 puts it in an uptrend since Sep 06 with a minor hickup in Jan 07. Would like to see it test $660 ish for confirmation. This damn holiday is killing me!!!

vicb · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

There have been some heavy buy recommendations that have come out in support for this stock in the last 3 weeks.
With one stock reporting group bring out 3 buy recommendations in the last 2 weeks.
While we may question some of the buy recommendations brought out by some of these brokers, where there is smoke there is fire.
I bought more of LHG for a short term trade at $3.18 simple on the chart.
We all may read our charts very differently but the chart looks very promising to me.
The break above the $3.20 line looks to be a good forward direction.

chops_a_must · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Another nice gap up this morning with a million in volume in the first 15 mins. Looking at the chart... it might hang here for a while, and if it goes through, get to about 3.60. What do others think?

Jadefox · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Alan Hull has a target of $5.00 provided that clear breakout conditions are met in both share price and price of gold.

http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au...PageID={92425D6A-81AC-436E-85BF-B573F2585A62}

Another possibility is a 0.618 extention of the retracement from 364 down to 234. This would give a target of 4.44.

$US dollar moved down fast last night and broke support. This should be good
for the gold price and LHG. If it accelerates down gold should break upwards
out of its recent range.

chops_a_must · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

LHG looks weak right now though. Buyers have totally dried up.

If the gold price wasn't still looking good, I'd be trying to get out.

Hmmm, anyone know when they are due to report?

Rafa · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I think the easy money has been made in the last few weeks for LHG...
I would think there is a fair bit of resistance to overcome to get to its all time high close of 3.60....

The POG will have big factor in influencing whether breaking 3.60 is a breeze or a long slog...

After that, it should be smoother sailing.

PS: I don't hold.

scsl · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

chops_a_must said:
LHG looks weak right now though. Buyers have totally dried up.

If the gold price wasn't still looking good, I'd be trying to get out.

Hmmm, anyone know when they are due to report?

Full year results are out Wed 21 Feb.

jimmy1979 · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I was reading the paper on Sunday.

Fat Prophets have a 12 month price target of $7.50 for Lihir Gold. I can't see how Lihir will reach that target price within 12 months, but hey I hope it does.

Dr Doom · 15 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

My short term indicators are saying re-tracement tomorrow or early next week (ie buying op?), but longer term looks like we won't see $3.00 for a while?.

chops_a_must · 16 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

scsl said:
Full year results are out Wed 21 Feb.

How are you able to find this info out?

Dr Doom · 16 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

chops_a_must said:
How are you able to find this info out?

http://www.lihir.com.pg/asp/index.asp?pgid=10720

Kauri · 16 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

chops_a_must said:
How are you able to find this info out?

Chops..
This page is helpfull for finding most ASX company dates due in the future...

http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au/clientservices/documents/generaldocuments/Reporting%20Season_1H_2007_date.pdf

Jadefox · 16 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

LHG tested the breakout level today. If it can hold this level and form a small bass it would be quite bullish. If it falls back into the previous range and fails to bounce fairly quickly then that would weaken the possibility of a strong advance.

Gold still looking strong - holding the tight range.

Indian gold ETF to open March 1st.

Have a great weekend!

IFocus · 17 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Jadefox

This will be my 3rd attempt looking at LHG from the chart perspective the last two were well off the mark so here goes for three out of three.

I am thinking the same as you but there is also down side risk (as always) as the selling volume rises the question is have enough sellers been washed out yet or are there still weak hands to be shaken out. The gold price maybe enough for sellers to hold and buyers to enter I guess Mondays price action may reveal a little more.

The area between the blue lines I see as an area of support / resistance, I have drawn a ABC correction as I think the current top is the end of a 5 EW move and expect the red support / resistance may be another hurdle for the bullish outlook.

Focus

Jadefox · 18 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi IFocus,

Agree with your analysis.

Increased selling volume Friday was understandable with traders being concerned about a possible false break and sentiment still weighing on LHG due to the Ballarat aquisition.

On a positive note, Lihir remained buoyant in the US on Friday, closing at the equivalent of $AUS 3.32. (LIHR)

A lot will depend on the Gold price from here. Fundamentals point to a breakout to the upside but the commercials keep adding to their short positions. A break to the upside may see a fast move up fuelled in part by short covering,

Important also is the US dollar index which sliced through support last last week. The weak economic figures that came out last Friday won't help it.
Good for Gold.

moses · 19 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hmmm...

The bearish sentiment on the SMA chart seems to favour a false break and subsequent failure for this week.

Sean K · 19 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

moses said:
Hmmm...

The bearish sentiment on the SMA chart seems to favour a false break and subsequent failure for this week.

Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?

CanOz · 19 February 2007

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

kennas said:
Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?

I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?

In any case the chart looks ok to me, its staying within its channel trend almost right on que. Sure, theres some selling pressure, last week on Thursday and Friday.

Cheers,

LGL - Lihir Gold

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