The one thing I see as an issue is the same thing I
See when value investors make a buy.
That's when it's recognized by the market as a whole
If ever.
Often " value " won't be recognized by the wider market
And price continues to drop. Value investors continue to buy.
When the same value investor sees a change in the business
Then the same thing often occurs and the market as a whole
Doesn't react in the way expected,by the time it is the business
Dynamic has altered again!
Ves
I just haven't seen it.
Not an arguement just an observation over the years that has been
The driving reason I don't try to value a company---it's just too slow.
And far too time consuming.
Not an arguement just an observation over the years that has been
The driving reason I don't try to value a company---it's just too slow.
And far too time consuming.
An old favourite stock that I had a great run with years ago was Fleetwood (FWD).
I have attached a weekly chart of it below and I have inserted an extract from a publically available current summary based on what seems to be accepted as recent data.
The misleading bit is that the data is based on when the company was growing and getting new contracts etc., that has come to an end - temporarily maybe but it is what is occurring, at some point they must plateau, have they reached that point - the price (actual value) has.
The current stock price is back to where it was in mid 2010 (no allowance made for dividends - or inflation).
(Weekly chart - click to expand)
FWD...
All you had to do was look at margins and you wouldn't have touched it. I wrote about that very fact on some thread, which I can't find now. Not rocket science, at least to me.
Its OK, the daily chart told me something was changing in Feb 2011
So what's it going to be Boggo...what are the charts telling you?, care to make a 12 month prediction?
What was the point of posting that chart then?
Just to confuse you and in case you didn't study up on the margin
OK. Very good.
My favourite is when you highlighted how bad "dividend" investor had done by buying TLS at $9+.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24409
I have no idea about TA, at least I admit it.
That's MARGINally better effort
My favourite is when you highlighted how bad "dividend" investor had done by buying TLS at $9+.
And just to let you know that TLS and I are now best of friends (TLSIOI around $2.20 atm).
Now, can we get back to the actual topic where I was attempting to highlight that the data ratios etc are usually based on are too far out of date to be of any value in making a price prediction.
That is a good question and reality is that I have never bothered to track "what-ifs" after deciding to sell - gut feel is that in most cases I would have been better off holding but this goes against my basic philosophy. I like my portfolio to be highly likely to generate 15% pa growth per year - once a stock is overpriced (in my opinion), it may keep increasing in price but not at my desired rate (I expect it to fall or flatline).
I know this may sound strange but my preference is for the stock to just slowly increase in value Year on Year so it stays in my value range so you never are put in the position of considering selling them as being over priced.
As an example, I bought CCP in Feb last year for $4.70 back in February as it met my criteria. Good final year result reported, dividend paid and then it has jumped above $8 in November. That's what I view it as being worth at the end of 2015 so couldn't justify holding it. Price may go up or down from here (and it has!) but I wouldnt but it at this price so struggling to justify holding it.
Money off table, reallocate to stocks that offer greater likelihood off meeting my 15% pa guidelines. I find the discipline helps even though I would have preferred a more gentle increase and hold it for years as still believe it is a good company, just overpriced.
In regard to using a trailing stop, I never have used one and suspect that I never will. Not that I am against them for any reason, just that I tend to be either all in or all out with my stock choices.
When I buy it tends to be in 50K+ amounts so that profits are meaningful (I already have a fair amount invested in the market) and when I decide to sell I get out of the stock all together and move on.
No idea whether this is a good, bad or indifferent approach, but it works for me. I have been essentially fully invested over the past two years, but I can see a gradual move to cash occurring over the next 6 months as I no longer have blindingly obvious ideas to invest in and a number of investments are moving to the fully valued level.
What I meant was that when I decide to sell, I sell. In essence, my sell decision is being driven by my view that the risk / reward balance for the investment is no longer in my favour. Or put another way, a belief that any future return will not be delivered at my hurdle rate.
A few extra pennies might be nice but having decided to move on, I take my profits (or my loss) and focus on the next target which is more likely to meet my hurdle rate.
What I meant was that when I decide to sell, I sell. In essence, my sell decision is being driven by my view that the risk / reward balance for the investment is no longer in my favour. Or put another way, a belief that any future return will not be delivered at my hurdle rate.
A few extra pennies might be nice but having decided to move on, I take my profits (or my loss) and focus on the next target which is more likely to meet my hurdle rate.
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