KCN - Kingsgate Consolidated

[sptrawler]

* tips

Yes I certainly wish I had kept my nerve and held on to them.

 

[finicky]

@sptrawler
I took on board your disclosure of selling at the time and it was quite rational. I am only cheesed off at fickle traders for not backing a high risk, high reward set up over a short time span.

 

[frugal.rock]

It's like my hot t1ts are paid no attention on this forum.

Well, I remember you gave us some "bouncy bouncy" analysis elsewhere....?
Perhaps if you donned a Borat mankini, your "hot t1ts" would be a knockout? ?

 

[Sean K]

I guess that *bouncy bouncy* yesterday was due to some loose lips. Was this anticipated to be imminent @finicky ?

 

[finicky]

No, I was very much hoping for something fully conclusive. Progress is happening in that they are announcing what they feel free to go ahead and start doing (extending the main pit, planning to crank up one of the two processing plants, do exploration on the new prospecting licences, other updates) but they are giving the Thai government yet another extension, this one 90 days, to finally sign off on all agreements. That's why short term money is bailing and I don't blame them, wish I'd lightened yesterday now. Certainly trying investors' patience.

 

[finicky]

Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning. You can't always get what you want. I'm in the camp that views the delay of another 3 months for the Thai government to sign off as an indication that our position isn't as strong as the company projects. We have them 1 month, now we're giving them another 3 months, phooey. After all, we still have to extract the money from them via expensive and protracted litigation if the company is forced to an arbitration decision instead of settlement. Anyway who wants to be invested in mining in Thailand now? Extraneous to this is my view that cash is more important than in normal times and in that context 3 months is a long delay. Better a bird in the hand - but will probably hold on to half my shares after getting my cost back plus a bit of profit.

 

[Sean K]

Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning.

Very nice two month return. ?

 

[brerwallabi]

Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning. You can't always get what you want. I'm in the camp that views the delay of another 3 months for the Thai government to sign off as an indication that our position isn't as strong as the company projects. We have them 1 month, now we're giving them another 3 months, phooey. After all, we still have to extract the money from them via expensive and protracted litigation if the company is forced to an arbitration decision instead of settlement. Anyway who wants to be invested in mining in Thailand now? Extraneous to this is my view that cash is more important than in normal times and in that context 3 months is a long delay. Better a bird in the hand - but will probably hold on to half my shares after getting my cost back plus a bit of profit.

Very wise decision, Thai government will stretch it out as long as they can with poor excuses.
They probably now will have to appoint another committee to elect a committee to review the first committees preparation of agreements.
Be prepared for further delays its a national pastime delaying decisions.

 

[brerwallabi]

Latest news from Thailand, the natives are not happy. (Article from the Bangkok post today)
A civil society group has threatened to file legal action against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha if the government loses a legal battle against Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd and agrees to the company's terms of reopening its gold mine.
The Network of People Who Own Mineral Resources on Monday issued a statement strongly opposing the government's plan to negotiate the legal dispute between the Thai government and Australian mining company, Kingsgate Consolidated, by allowing the company to resume its gold mining operation in Thailand.
Such a decision would revive catastrophic environmental impacts for nearby communities, the network said. It warned that the PM must take full responsibility if the government loses the international arbitration lawsuit to Kingsgate, or if it accepts the company's "unfair proposals" to drop the case.
The statement came after Kingsgate announced that both litigants had jointly requested the arbitral tribunal to further hold its verdict until Jan 31 next year, as they were currently negotiating an agreement to settle the lawsuit. Major conditions on the settlement include allowing the company to reopen the Akara gold mine, which is run by its subsidiary company Akara Resources Pcl at Pichit and renewing the ore exploration licence on land in nearby Phitsanuloke's Noen Maprang district.
Lertsak Kamkongsak, Commoners Party Leader and the network's representative, said the government would be trading the environment and people's health by allowing the company to resume its gold mining operations. He pointed out that it was the government's mistake to exercise non-traditional absolute power under Article 44 of the Interim Charter to suspend the gold mining operation in 2016, which later triggered the international arbitration lawsuit between Kingsgate and the Thai government when the company brought the case to the Court of International Arbitration
Worse than that, the government did not prove the reason for the suspension of gold mining operations was because the gold mine had caused a severe impact on the environment and people's health, despite us having many academic pieces of evidence to support our claim," he said.
Mr Lertsak said the network will closely monitor the outcome of the case and if the government seeks to settle the lawsuit by agreeing to Kingsgate's terms, they will sue the PM in court.
Meanwhile, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Industry Kobchai Sangsitthisawat admitted the government is negotiating a settlement with Kingsgate, as it is normal procedure to mediate a dispute. Mr Kobchai insisted this does not mean that the Thai government will lose in court. He also assured that the government's legal team will negotiate while having the country's interests as its first priority.

 

[finicky]

Pretty sure that'll be more agitation from the same self-interested parties who have claimed to be representing communities. It seems obvious that the real communities want the mine to operate. The activists failed to determine the outcome before so it is likely a last gasp attempt to extract something for their personal benefit. And they'll need a lot of luck using a Thai court to sue the dictator.

 

[UMike]

They'll need more than luck.
Must admit in general the mine is very unpopular amongst the general population.

 

[finicky]

My best performer today and yesterday, not that the competition is all that great.
Still less than halfway through the period of restraint conceded to the Thai government for a settlement to be signed (January 31)
For anyone reading this thread - if you ever get an opportunity to invest in Thailand, don't!
For me it's in the same basket as PNG, Indonesia, Philippines, South Africa, Zimbabwe, China and Iraq

Chart has been strong for a few weeks but is very odd and not one I'd want to try to call.

 

[UMike]

Even Australia has issues with mining due to "Interest" Groups. See Coal/Gas.
Still there is way too much Govt interference. I can tell you there is alot of distrust in the mine by the common Thai people. Whether that is from the bad press or propaganda who know.

I still believe the company line that it is safe and spent a great deal of time and money educating and taking care of staff and the community.
Still got land and a family farming services business in the far east. Not so much an investment more an interest when I retire again.

disc: Still hold a far bit

 

[finicky]

Just an obligatory post from me about KCN as I have entered it once again in the yearly stock picking comp but really nothing has happened lately (that I know of) as we wait out the clock until January 31. That is the time limit agreed by the two parties for a settlement to be ratified. I do not have a lot of confidence that the Thai side will step up to the plate by then but I do have confidence that a settlement or tribunal decision will happen this year. Much of the anticipated outcome is built into the share price but a 50-100% improvement is my expectation fwiw.

 

[finicky]

Breaking out of a smashed looking cup and handle pattern to multi-year high. Hoping for a bit more b4 unloading a few.
Jan 31 looms and is supposed to be the deadline for the Junta to settle the claim. The final compromise date from KCN but who knows?

2 Yr Daily

 

[sptrawler]

Youve done well holding your nerve @finicky , kudos to you.

 

[finicky]

@sprawler thankyou mate. I don't think I'll hold them all through to the announcement of a settlement - too risky when dealing with the Junta. Might risk half on the outcome.

 

[Sean K]

Breaking out of a smashed looking cup and handle pattern to multi-year high. Hoping for a bit more b4 unloading a few.
Jan 31 looms and is supposed to be the deadline for the Junta to settle the claim. The final compromise date from KCN but who knows?

I think Mr Market is saying it's about 95% sure it will be in KCN's favour.

 

[finicky]

@Sean K - yep but might be an element of irrational fomo regarding the Jan 31 date. Better a bird in the hand in these doubtful times, I've been blowing too much cash on new gold speccies, need to rebuild the balance. Must check around to see if there's any goss on other social media.

 

[UMike]

Be careful about Goss.

Even I aren't interested in getting goss from my Thai contacts. They have been wrong (negative about the company) most the time.

Just holding to see what will happen.
disc - as previously mention I offloaded half in anticipation of bad new months ago left 6g on the table.