JPR - Jupiter Energy

does sound like good news . unfortunately the market has not been so kind to the share price. After the rise to around 7.6 c or there abouts she has drifted south. Pre global crisis number whatever you may well have expected this too shoot into double figures.

there is a reasonable amount of debt attached to this wee minow and quite a few shares but hey at 7c a share you could double plus your money if things play out.

Producing costs a lot of dough which JPR dont have so maybe we can expect a JV or something of the kind

certainly worth keeping an eye on

Atlas79 said:

Welcome to the thread LF, I was feeling lonely here - surprised at the lack of interest in JPR.

This interview might be well worth a listen for people unfamiliar with what's happening...

http://www.brr.com.au/event/65033/oil-discovery-in-middle-triassic-carbonates

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Not many of my favourite stocks get much attention over here, pity and not sure what it is. Thinking of the exciting O&G plays, especially JPR and my rave PEP 11.

Seems general charting, strong in gold stocks, bigger juniors, more established stocks then lot's of general interest threads. IMHO be good if there was a happy medium between this and the hyped up big one where I still spend most of my time these days.

Hoping next few weeks turn out swell for NWE, PEP 11 and JPR.

Donga (aka Upmarket)

countryboy said:

there is a reasonable amount of debt attached to this

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If you think US$2,475,000 is a reasonable amount of debt, then you and I have a different view. It's chicken feed in my opinion.
Approx 55 days of production from their two wells will clear that.

gee whiz may have this wrong but i thought i saw in the 1/2 yrly accounts about 9 million in debt. Note 2c

but im sure the directors have this covered with some oppies etc

any way if wrong Ill try not to skim read infuture!

countryboy said:

gee whiz may have this wrong but i thought i saw in the 1/2 yrly accounts about 9 million in debt. Note 2c

but im sure the directors have this covered with some oppies etc

any way if wrong Ill try not to skim read infuture!

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You need to re-read the financials from the half yearly. No bank debt but a liability of $2.475M to a private company.

I want to see flow rates but have dipped my toe in the water acquiring 5M options (JPROA) at 1.2c. It would be great to see the head stock pull back to around 6c. 5c would be a give away bargain and realistically I don't think it will get there but in the market never say never.
My initial foray is via the options.
I don't know David Thorpe (Managing Director)personally but through contacts here in Brisbane I know enough to give me confidence. He is a highly regarded senior drilling engineer formally with Woodside, Shell and BHP. He came on board Jupiter a few months ago.
The independant experts report makes for interesting reading. Senergy have a very good reputation in the oil and gas industry for being professional and quite conservative in their appraisals.

Block 31 (Jupiter's tenement) is situated in the south west of Kazakhstan, a known oil producing region.
Jupiter have targetted a Triassic structure but also includes a Jurassic structure. Initially old data seemed to indicate these structures were seperate, however, JPR and Senergy have ascertained that both structures are actually joined. This has increased the 2P reserve figure for the Triassic alone to 31 mmbbls of oil in place with a reserve of 8.6 mmbbls.
The "prospective" 2P resource for the Triassic structure is oil in place of some 52 mmbbls with a prospective recovery of 12.2 mmbbls.

In total, reserves and resource (at 2P level) for the Triassic alone is 20.8 mmbbls. JPR own 100% of this tenement. That is an appetiser. I will post some Jurassic numbers later. Suffice to say, using the old industry Net Present Value rule of thumb of oil in the ground being worth 1/3 of the spot price, one can assign a back of envelope NPV range of $258M to $624M for the Triassic alone.

They are in the process of putting the re-entered well (NWZ2) into production and for the new J50 well, they are currently core testing samples from the initial entry into the targetted Middle Triassic zone which started at 2939m and is believed to be some 120m thick and fully oil saturated.
More later but a no-brainer in my opinion for those with a medium term view.

**NPV forecasts based on exchange rate of 90c and spot oil price of US$80 per barrel.
As always, do your own research before buying any stock.

The $24M coming in June will be a huge catalyst for JPR to make the step to mid cap producer. That will pay for the next three development wells and they'll have cash left over.

People say "What if JPROA are not in the money by June?" They will be in the money IMHO as the stock only has to get to at least 8c and there's a high probability the options will be underwritten (probably by a UK based fund/broker) so I am personally comfortable the cash will be coming in. UK and Euro funds have a much better understanding of the oil business in Kazakhstan than their Australian counterparts.

I also feel this one should be a little higher, but it might just be caution thats holding it down, i think eventually as things unfold and it nears targets, the price will go up rapidly, i'm just holding and watching closely.

banska bystrica said:

You need to re-read the financials from the half yearly. No bank debt but a liability of $2.475M to a private company.

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yep had a reread
note 9 on page 18 commitments of $6,382,119

the auditirs have it listed under the concerns that this can make it as going concern. they also add another $3 mill in liabilities.

all hinges on this shooting out some oil. directors are covering this by trying to fleece european investors of $$$

I think in Australia we call this a placement to "sophisticated investors"

anyway lets hope this goes thru the roof

countryboy,

The $6M committments are not a debt. They are an undertaking to spend that amount on the tenement. That amount will be spent on J51 so what's the issue?
You should know that when explorers are awarded a tenement they give an undertaking to the authorities that they will spend a certain amount of money. In other words, they cannot just sit on it doing nothing. It's a standard clause in most tenement awards.
Re: The auditors comments. Of course there is doubt. Have a read of most mining companies auditors reports. Obviously if companies spend money on exploring and don't find anything there will be material doubts about their ability to remain a going concern.
You're jumping at shadows countryboy. You think if there was no risk, the stock would be 6.9c?
Cheers
Everybody, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH before buying any stock.

countryboy said:

directors are covering this by trying to fleece european investors of $$$

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Just be aware a member of another forum was recently sued by a listed company and it cost him over $20,000 in an out of court settlement. Yes, his IP was tracked and court orders issued to the forum owners forcing them to reveal his identity and address.

I'm going to a presentation by Jupiter in Brisbane tomorrow. I will report here if people are interested.
There are a couple of things making the price churn around these high 6's area. The investment community are waiting on confirmation of commercial oil flow and investors are worried about lack of funding moving forward.
Both are valid points but it is my belief that this well will flow commercially and the funding will not be an issue by June.
Will the JPROA be in the money and raise $24M for Jupiter?
I believe the stock price will be in the money once commercial oil is a reality and importantly I think the options (JPROA) will be underwritten once we have confirmed commercial oil.
By June 30, I expect Jupiter will have two commercial oil wells plus $24M cash for future developmental wells. What's that worth? Watch this space!

You've had the appetiser with the Triassic. Now for some main course with the Jurassic.

Consultant Keith Martens believes that there is a substantial oil trap in the Jurassic. That's why they re-entered the old NWZ-2 well last year. That re-entry was a resounding success with 30m of net oil pay confirmed and NWZ-2 will be production tested in about four months time.
To the south of JPR's Block 31 tenement, there is the undeveloped Northwest Zhetybai oil field that has recorded oil saturation in four of it's wells so it makes sense for JPR to go for oil in the Jurassic on Block 31.
There are two sands in the Jurassic, namely Jurassic XI and Jurassic XIII. One of the three future wells planned for Block 31 later this year include one that specifically targets the Jurassic.
Both Jurassic XI and XIII are updip from NWZ-2 and therefore there is a high degree of confidence about the Jurassic potential. Martens Consulting has given the following data for the Jurassic:

Jurassic XI: Oil in place 6.7mmbls with 2 mmbls recoverable.
Jurassic XIII: Oil in place 80.6 mmbls with 20.2 mmbls recoverable.

This potentially adds 22.2 mmbls to JPR (100% owned) and I do highlight POTENTIAL. It has to be drilled, hence the share price is still 7c.

NPV estimates should that drill program be successful would give the following for the Jurassic targets:

22.2mmbls @ US$27 per barrel = US$599M or AUD$665M.

Assumes spot price of US$80 and an exchange rate of 90c.

That's what I call HIGH IMPACT that one should be looking for in speccy oil stocks. You want low impact and safe, there's BHP, Santos, Woodside, Victoria Petroleum or many others in Australia.

banska bystrica said:

You've had the appetiser with the Triassic. Now for some main course with the Jurassic.

Both Jurassic XI and XIII are updip from NWZ-2 and therefore there is a high degree of confidence about the Jurassic potential. Martens Consulting has given the following data for the Jurassic:

Jurassic XI: Oil in place 6.7mmbls with 2 mmbls recoverable.
Jurassic XIII: Oil in place 80.6 mmbls with 20.2 mmbls recoverable.

This potentially adds 22.2 mmbls to JPR (100% owned) and I do highlight POTENTIAL. It has to be drilled, hence the share price is still 7c.

NPV estimates should that drill program be successful would give the following for the Jurassic targets:

22.2mmbls @ US$27 per barrel = US$599M or AUD$665M.

Assumes spot price of US$80 and an exchange rate of 90c.

That's what I call HIGH IMPACT that one should be looking for in speccy oil stocks. You want low impact and safe, there's BHP, Santos, Woodside, Victoria Petroleum or many others in Australia.

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Many thanks banska bystrica for your updates.

The O&G sector is very exciting atm with NWE, SSN, PEP 11 off Sydney and JPR with the race against time for the oppies - am with you on those.

Look forward to the flow rates ann and the drying up of the the big seller of recent days

JPR doing a slow slide off the radar despite weekly updates that they have moved the toilet block from one spot to another and we are now reached a certain depth etc. Ramping my management of this nature is common amongst all speccy oilers as they get excited about their prospects. I still believe JPR is worth a roll as any oiler when it hits pay dirt could make Posiden look kids play....but a small roll.

I look forward to next weeks update as we close in on when those options are due or will i pull the pin for a loss ???
only the market knows !

countryboy said:

JPR doing a slow slide off the radar despite weekly updates that they have moved the toilet block from one spot to another and we are now reached a certain depth etc. Ramping my management of this nature is common amongst all speccy oilers as they get excited about their prospects. I still believe JPR is worth a roll as any oiler when it hits pay dirt could make Posiden look kids play....but a small roll.

I look forward to next weeks update as we close in on when those options are due or will i pull the pin for a loss ???
only the market knows !

Click to expand...

Well I awoke to find another trading halt, so it might pay to wait and see if this is the big one, I agree the relocation of the toilet blocks has been exciting and I was starting to believe they would hit the earths core before actually raising a drop of the black stuff, but i'm not sure it might be a poseidon. lets just sit and wait to see if they have actually found the supreme position for the ablutions block, or maybe a new lunch room has been ordered.

BB

What do you make of this sell off?

I noticed you were unable to comment on the other forum, and thought you might like to vent over here!

What really worries me about a sell off like this is the reaction the stock will do when flow rates are announced.

Has the market set itself up for a fall? Flow rates OK then share price stable. Flow rates unbelievable, then you might see a small rise in share price. Will it be enough for JPROA?

They will be really pushing it to get them either underwritten or the heads above 8c.

It just feels like they have painted themselves into a corner. The market now expects the best.

I, like you, believe this is a great medium term story, but what will really make this in the short term are sensational flow rates, and having the cash from options.

If the market only gets good flow rates, the options are probably dead. We will then be up for another cap raising around 6c.

I hold both JPR and JPROA but am not nearly as confident with JPROA as I was. Not because of the announcements but just the way the market has reacted. Basically, the market is too aware of whats at stake, so the fear factor is much morepervasive on the stock.

What are your thoughts?

when they anoounced the latest trading halt i was expecting all good news, but now i'm still waiting, does anyone know what they are trying to achieve here?

Big buy orders went on late in the day. Check it out:


TIME PRICE VOLUME VALUE

04:10:35 PM 0.060 2,000,000 $120,000.00
04:10:35 PM 0.060 1,000,000 $60,000.00
04:10:35 PM 0.060 4,568,112 $274,086.72

Atlas79 said:

Big buy orders went on late in the day. Check it out:


TIME PRICE VOLUME VALUE

04:10:35 PM 0.060 2,000,000 $120,000.00
04:10:35 PM 0.060 1,000,000 $60,000.00
04:10:35 PM 0.060 4,568,112 $274,086.72

Click to expand...

I think there was a total of 15million+ to the same buyer.. Substantial holder announcement imminent?