JPR - Jupiter Energy

[banska bystrica]

I bought all day at 5.9c and 6c. The truck is fully loaded.......lol
Look, people see the selling and panic. Easily done. Hold your nerve. These are bargain basement prices in my opinion. You need to know the history of the stock and brokers involved to work out what's going on.
The stock is being dumped by a seller. That's obvious but I believe they are selling out their clients at ridiculously cheap prices.
This might sound crazy but I also think JPROA are a near certainty to be in the money. Remember this post at the June expiry date.
Why do you think a single buyer has stepped up to the plate for 20M at 6c?
Do you really believe this well (J50) is a dud? The market is in panic mode because the stock dropped on a great announcement. Once we get flow rates from J50, it is my opinion we will see aggressive buying from instos. I may be wrong but my cash is betting on it.
What's 1P reserves of 8.6M barrels of oil worth?
Look past J51 and J52. What's 40mmbls of 1P oil reserves worth? Do the math and don't be scared by short term sellers.
The caveat? J50 does not flow and the stock is 2c. I'm betting against that.

 

[steptoe88]

I bought all day at 5.9c and 6c. The truck is fully loaded.......lol
Look, people see the selling and panic. Easily done. Hold your nerve. These are bargain basement prices in my opinion. You need to know the history of the stock and brokers involved to work out what's going on.
The stock is being dumped by a seller. That's obvious but I believe they are selling out their clients at ridiculously cheap prices.
This might sound crazy but I also think JPROA are a near certainty to be in the money. Remember this post at the June expiry date.
Why do you think a single buyer has stepped up to the plate for 20M at 6c?
Do you really believe this well (J50) is a dud? The market is in panic mode because the stock dropped on a great announcement. Once we get flow rates from J50, it is my opinion we will see aggressive buying from instos. I may be wrong but my cash is betting on it.
What's 1P reserves of 8.6M barrels of oil worth?
Look past J51 and J52. What's 40mmbls of 1P oil reserves worth? Do the math and don't be scared by short term sellers.
The caveat? J50 does not flow and the stock is 2c. I'm betting against that.

I'm with you, I guess we just sit tight and wait, I did notice the directors seem to be getting their own wagons loaded up also, is this a sign?

 

[steptoe88]

I see another round of announcements and note directors still buying more, is this just some sort of delay tactic on their part?
I am not that well versed in these sort of things especially with oil stocks, it seems to me that they just put out lots of small announcements but nothing that shakes the earth, can anyone tell me what is a normal course of action in these types of companies?

 

[banska bystrica]

Their announcements are clear and concise. They have said they expect to announce flow rates by the end of April. That means by tomorrow or Monday allowing for a couple of days delay.
If a director buys shares they have to announce it and they have.

 

[steptoe88]

Well I awoke today and it must be friday because there is the weekly trading halt notice, I see it's to announce the flow rates, but as I am new to oil discovery I have no idea if this means that they are now about to pump out oil and sell it, which I assume might mean that they are worth something, and subsequently the share price could move in an upwards direction. (hopefully like the posiedon mentioned in an earlier post) I guess I'm just meant to keep waiting ( sigh....)

 

[sjx]

Well I awoke today and it must be friday because there is the weekly trading halt notice, I see it's to announce the flow rates, but as I am new to oil discovery I have no idea if this means that they are now about to pump out oil and sell it, which I assume might mean that they are worth something, and subsequently the share price could move in an upwards direction. (hopefully like the posiedon mentioned in an earlier post) I guess I'm just meant to keep waiting ( sigh....)

Lol.. no offence mate but o&g is risky business. I think you should have a fairly adequate understanding of the terminology and the business in general before even considering investment.. Do you know what you are really investing in or did you receive a tip? Just a word of caution.. many are left hung high and dry in this industry and I certainly wouldn't be recommending to investors who 'have no idea'.... be careful. Anyways, JPR looks like a winner.

ALWAYS Dyor... and know exactly what you are getting yourself into... Additionally, 'waiting' is something you will very much be needing to get used to on the o&g scene

Good luck investors,

 

[Atlas79]

I'm out of this one at a small loss. Everyone got excited at flow rates of 750 BOPD... except the market. Because it's BPD not bopd, which may include water, they don't say how much of it is oil. Somewhat embarrassed now by my earlier enthusiasm for JPR. Certainly wasn't alone at least, on other forums people were predicting flows of 2000 bopd+, apparently they were straight faced in doing so.

It may well be a good result in a week's time but I'm glad to be out for now. This stock is very diluted anyway with over 1.1 billion shares, and a best case scenario seems to me in retrospect less impressive than other possible plays. Weighing up options which include OBL, GDN & PCL. (Holding each of these already.)




(And by the way if you go to hot copper, make sure you don't say anything negative about stocks the mods are invested in. I am suspended for 10 days for a fairly innocuous remark about the disappointing SP result - the mod advised us to read the "sour grapes" thread re: JPR, I responded "the grapes taste sour all right", which in his wisdom warranted a 10 day suspension.)

 

[banska bystrica]

Atlas,
I missed the moderated post. Sorry to see you get suspended. Sorry you also lost some money on JPR.
You are correct that is has not yet flowed 750 bopd but rather 750 bpd which includes oil, gas and drilling fluids. The water table is located some 120m lower than the rock base of the Triassic reservoir so unlikely to have water content. Not impossible but highly unlikely.
They said "primarily oil". That's bullish.
You will probably have ample opportunity to get back in at cheap prices even after stabilised flow rates are announced.
I elected to top up my JPROA holding at 0.004c as I believe JPR will run hard once UK/Euro instos come on board after stabilsed flow rates are announced.
Yes, the jury is still out but the evidence so far is bullish.

 

[Atlas79]

750bpd = 220 BOPD, apparently

Glad I'm out, this stock was a headache to hold. Gut was telling me to get out for a while, but had to wait till flow rates. Good luck to those still holding. Hope the co. doesn't milk you with CR's too much more than they already have.

 

[countryboy]

yep I m out too a few weeks ago.
oilers are tricky
enjoyed watching the hot metal site and the constant ramping that didn't progress past a flow rates conversation. JPR could be worth entering now at 4c for a smallish sum as the sites potential is still not resolved.
the oppies etc are a dead duck(yep Ill make that call in mid may) so those sophisticated european investors (hope no one sues me)will keep the fort in amunition for a while but it really depends on extracting some payable oil from these latest holes

still holding OEL

 

[banska bystrica]

220 bopd is still in clean up phase and unassisted on a 10mm choke. That's a solid flow. Offset wells in the block next door increased from <100 bopd on initial flow to 400 bopd with assistance. I think 400+ bopd is a shoe in for J50.
The block is de-risked, the oil is there, light crude and commercial.
I might drop six figures on JPROA (holding 11M) but happy with my holding of JPR.

 

[Atlas79]

220 bopd is still in clean up phase and unassisted on a 10mm choke. That's a solid flow. Offset wells in the block next door increased from <100 bopd on initial flow to 400 bopd with assistance. I think 400+ bopd is a shoe in for J50.
The block is de-risked, the oil is there, light crude and commercial.
I might drop six figures on JPROA (holding 11M) but happy with my holding of JPR.

Then why did they need to state their announcement in the way they did? What you have just said is not what they said in their announcement. There is a credibility issue now, imo.

 

[banska bystrica]

The company said this:
"J-50 well test continues and the well is currently producing 220 barrels of oil per day (bopd) on 10mm choke during staged well test."

Understand? It's a staged well test. 220 bopd is not the final flow rate.

They then said:
"Shut in well and run downhole pressure gauges.
Open well and conduct reservoir pressure measurements over a range of choke sizes which is a statutory requirement in Kazakhstan.
Shut in the well and demobilise the drilling rig.
Commence the 90 day production test.
During the production test, stimulate the well to maximise productivity in line with offset well production rates."

What part can't you understand?

 

[Atlas79]

I don't understand the 750 bpd of "mostly oil" which = 220 bopd. Why did they put this in the announcement? Even if the final rate is 300 or 400?

 

[steptoe88]

I am still sitting tight and waiting, i dont have a knowledge of O & G stocks, this being my first venture into it, but todays announcement looks ok to me and i just hope it continues to grow, i'm sure time will tell,

 

[banska bystrica]

I don't understand the 750 bpd of "mostly oil" which = 220 bopd. Why did they put this in the announcement? Even if the final rate is 300 or 400?

Seriously, what are you doing buying this when you cannot understand a simple well test program?
By the way, the final flow rate will be much higher than 400 bopd in my opinion. It initially flowed at 750 bpd (primarily oil) and the well is still cleaning up. They have it on a 25/64ths choke (restricted flow). No point in opening up the choke in cleanup phase and risking well damage.
I posted on the other forum about a well in Siberia doubling the flow rate after cleanup and an increase in choke size from 8mm to 10mm. That's what can happen here easily. Throw in an acid wash and pump and you could see 600+ for years.

 

[Atlas79]

Seriously, what are you doing buying this when you cannot understand a simple well test program?
By the way, the final flow rate will be much higher than 400 bopd in my opinion. It initially flowed at 750 bpd (primarily oil) and the well is still cleaning up. They have it on a 25/64ths choke (restricted flow). No point in opening up the choke in cleanup phase and risking well damage.
I posted on the other forum about a well in Siberia doubling the flow rate after cleanup and an increase in choke size from 8mm to 10mm. That's what can happen here easily. Throw in an acid wash and pump and you could see 600+ for years.

I understand red in my portfolio. Also was thoroughly unimpressed by the co's surprise CR during the net pay announcement, what seemed hype to me with the "we have increased net pay" follow up, & besides the dilution made this a complete waste of time, barring unreal flow rates (and from calcs 400 bopd flow is pretty much priced in already.) But I'm done waiting now, too many better opportunities beckon. Would have sold after the distasteful CR, but figured it was a short wait till initial flow rates. No big institutional investors seem to be lining up either, contrary to rumours attempted by various ramp squads. You're right, I should not have bought a stock so fricken diluted with nearly a billion shares out there, and any moderate success already priced in, yet more dilution on the offchance the oppies are in the money (which it looks like they almost certainly won't be.) But I admit I am learning, and as a precaution my punt was small & so was my loss. You go ahead and buy more if you're so confident, no skin off my nose. Oppies are pretty cheap too, bargain hey?

 

[banska bystrica]

Great opportunity the last few days to steal cheap stock off panic merchants.
Big vote of confidence to see Biscra take shares at 6.5c as majority payment for debt due by June 30 (80% premium to 3.6c price at time of announcement). That tells you what the smart investors think this is worth.

JPR now debt free and 100% owned tenement. Let the stabilised flow rates for J50 do the talking and watch the sellers retreat.
JPR also have two teams on the ground now. One testing J50 and the other team about to release the stop valve on NWZ-2 and announce the flow rates there.
J51 fully funded now and set to spud in July as a step out well to J50.
Big chance of three producing oil wells (100% owned) by September this year.
Those three will fully fund the 2011 drill program including J52 and J53 targetting the Jurassic structures as well as the Triassic.
My year end target is still $127M market cap as posted on the other forum. That equates to 14c per JPR share with 886M on issue.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Breaking out. Yesterday's announcement that Waterford crossed the 20% threshold with 27% has triggered buying for this cashed up microcap with no debt and 80mbbls of proven oil.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Went looking for some long term patterns for the April comp. If it breaks out, the run might last the four weeks. The cup and the inverted H&S have similar necklines, so hopefully can set that as a target price (.08c).