Joules MM1 Blog

[Joules MM1]

i have retaken s/s's on gold and silver on the lower exit signal of the EDW on gold although the silver contract appeared to ahve missed it's final high .......looks a tad weak.......we shall see.......stop is topside the EDW line........we may come back up and kiss the underside of the wedge

 

[Joules MM1]

s/s x 2 + 1559

01/06/12
the break down hasnt occurred the way i thought ....how unusual : .....if we meander down and not conclusively through the lower level then i'll consider the move a sucker set-up for cheap supply .....an impulsive buy back through 1565 would take me out but i'd need to see a session close above the 1579 to get long and that's likely to be swift based on the open interest

 

[Joules MM1]

1553 target just hit based on the first rejection from the break-down from the pimple high through the base of the EDW so now i need to see a break through of 1552 prior to the NFP release to know if this is not a fishing expedition and we are genuinely selling

the 1553 level is the 100% break-down target as per the first chart

 

[Joules MM1]

as the HSI and XJO rally mostly from short covering thus far.....gold is holding steady

here's a good reason not to be invested in the downside persepctive

video

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...sitions-major-rally-fuel-for-gold-silver.html

 

[Joules MM1]

16 points given back, initially, being spectacularly wrong on gold move and all that short covering is unlikely to look back with every theorist and his dog saying get your shot-gun and tinned beef ready......don't forget the fluro jacket so the other extremists dont accidentally shoot you too.....still, second thoughts maybe leave the fluro's in the cellar .....

att is the SPX tech jibba jabba measure which calls for a low on friday to make a base on monday ......what's also interesting is exactly the same measured thrust in the SML which i think is a near-term bullish signal to ignore the clamour of media and chat sites calling for ultimate doom and listen to price alone.......

as a side thought; there is a misnomer, or, an implied misnomer, that for every buyer there is a seller, which, implies, for every single person that buys there is an equal single seller ......
i think the correct thought is this;
for every account that sells there is an account that buys and one account may soak up several single-person sells on a low (acc) and one account may sell to several single-person accounts on a high (dist) and as one brit trader once said to me "youre job is to recognise when price has changed as it changes and consider who did that"

..... right now i need to know who might be buying all that selling.......

here's some index piccy att's as the updating for jpeg's in the ASF blog section is not quite finished:

SPX thrust

sml thrust

looking for the SML index to make a strong base on monday if the indecies are basically tracking each other then the implications are fairly clear depending on your bent, in that, if they track together they fall together and on the flip side if they track they can also build on strength......yep, it's either a buy or a sell and nothing in between......funny that....

 

[Joules MM1]

this is my thinking and i welcome any juxtaposing.....i know there's a lot of traders who have other ideas about this......

the point of the time measurement is NOT to find a holy grail.....the point is to validate a target and time is a measure the same way that price is a measure, in that, they are measureable in the present are derived directly of themselves because of their endogenous activity and at some point they'll (i postulate, obviously) converge or make agreement of change in direction or imply that at this point in terms of BOTH price and time something different is going to happen and that people who want that change of direction can input their intent and that enough transactions have been exhausted in one direction and are now, at this point, at this level, at this time, about to be swamped by the opposite action in the auction process........your honour!

so, what's the difference between me claiming validity of the time equality versus, say, an indicator? firstly it's just like price, either selling or buying, up or down, it's really saying beyond this point i am wrong to be long, right to be short, or, confirmation that we have maxed out the sentiment for some and played into the hands of others and the measures (price and time) do not veer away from the very thing that makes them move in real time (people, duh!)

if i'm only using the measures as an aggressive move to be short, in this instance, that is dangerous, however, if i'm using the measures to get defensive at the low then, in reality, i have much stronger risk ratio case to trade on, in other words, the exact measures in time and price are so distinctive* as to give precise* be long this level and protect with a stop directly below and with a break of this level consider being short......

this is really about management of an idea, the trade is an idea, all trades are simply ideas, applied.......any measure is merely a permission, as a filip, i'm interested in any idea that deals with immediacy and price/time measures do not imply anything they simply measure, they do not lag and are of themselves in origin, they are original in that sense........now my head hurts........

* in both the SML and SPX the measure is less than 1 point in discrepancy.....most likely due to my inept drawing technique than the mathematic....... :

price and time are of people, resultant.....they "print" as a direct result of activity of people .....the time component is always active just like price and i offer options expiration, front months rolls, news annocs set-ups, quarterly dressings, earnings dates, religious sabaths, statutory days closed, ad nauseum as daily activity ......so, how does this not get reduced to the smallest time frame, afterall, what is a culmination, a climax, an exhaustion, if not with a time component? .......if anything, this is the antithesis of theory or grail finds......

other than price and time, everything else that might appear on a chart, or print, is a direct result of or is a filter and a distortion of it's origin.......

my job is to tell the story of the next price bar.....a dom can give insight into weight of activity, into fakes, pendings, defensive plays, ice berg orders, whatever......they assist in telling the story of the next bar, or next price level......the trader still has to opine on the next price level, clearly, other than time there is no component of price that has the immediacy regardless if youre a scalper or a end of day player

a lot of traders get hit because they are distracted by something other than price, so, time is the least of all evils in my humble opinion.....when a trader is distracted by a moving average they are not connected to the story of the next bar they are connected, in focus, to what is happening to the m/a, they are telling the story of the m/a and while i agree that the m/a is merely the permission to take a trade it is like passing the ball to the other player first before you kick the goal even tho youre standing directly in front of goal with no one to stop you........

 

[Joules MM1]

great for new stock traders



great for new futures traders

[video]http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness.html[/video]

FT71 in discussion on dom comp

 

[Joules MM1]

easy peezy cheesy.....when tradings thin, these set-ups suddenly appear ....a careful study of this action can figure out what has really happened .....nice work......better than live theatre.....and we sing, this is the way we hook the shmucks, hook the shmucks, hook the shmucks, another set of numpteeeeezzzz

 

[Joules MM1]

nice effort

Cry Havoc! And slip the dogs of war

Bill or Bacon

Havoc is derived from the word pillage

 

[Joules MM1]

playing mostly short side of this aspect......on an hourly basis a simple triangle idea with 5 components all with the same sell signatures with the nearest impulsive thrusts coming from news releases creating distribution opportunities.....not withstanding that money managers are nett short and commercials are at their lowest short pos's compared to 2008 (that doesnt imply theyre building long pos as there's clearly not pushing of the bid) in both gold and silver it would appear that retail is caught long and about to be forced to give up their pos's and then the commercials are likely to step in and force the money managers to cover extreme shorts......

the gold tri idea may require another leg up 1608-1614 zone before finally letting go...... a daily close below 1559 would put the shorters back in the driving seat with 1427-1430 as min target if this area gives way over the next few hours..... ....

 

[Joules MM1]

as Cadel struggles up the slope, Wiggins has another aussie assist him in keeping the yellow jersey for another day, watching gold move across the 1559 level and three crosses that aint sposed to occur, instead of momentum kicking in there's clear exit of shorts termination signals......when these transactions occur at a technical level it's usually a trap.....better tp trade the flow ya know than the news spike that's going to kill ......if gold spikes up on news again it's most likely going to be a sell opportunity.....

 

[Joules MM1]

the tri picture in recent blog for gold remains in play with downside target of 1427-30 and the inverted head/shoulders for SPX continues to make range heading for min 1409-1420 (adj from 1414-1420)

i am short gold again given the back ground of todays action not only fits the pattern of the tri in threes so much as the lack of upside power (thus far) from commericals ......i suspect we need that one more low to create a large percentage value area since the altime high and we'll likely need to get through most of earnings season too....no doubt the lack of upside swing from the bernanks comments today upon which most talking heads were sure that a hint a t another QE would bring a stampede of buyers......well, they are the stampede of buyers, already!

the base of the active tech tri traverses 1558 and if i dont see a similar effort that evented last week where i took out my short then i'll be adding there and no doubt a few others are going to be watching that same level......

triple bottoms?......yeah, right !!

gold is one of the few instruments that can climb on techs that call for lower lows and still fulfill the req'd signals at higher lows......a slippery sucker....a move above 1601.6 would have me review the whole downside idea......there's plenty of small swings to play along the way

 

[Joules MM1]

as per blog post 12/07/12 ....gold is breaking down basic levels and now needs to hold 1568 ......if this breaks then i can finally call the E wave and look for the tri to break and add momo......

 

[Joules MM1]

at 1568 i got the break i was looking for and like previous occasions enough buying came in at the death-nell to force covering (me included) and take prices back into the major vpoc zone........since then, treading water awaiting fed-numpty to pull the pin (this is the fed-numpty who arent happy with the pace of things in the us ....as if they can effect any real change...) so comments in the last 48 hours have assisted a slow burn up and once we cross through and keep above 1614 overnight then likely we'll keep going and nirvana for gold bugs will come at last.......or will it?

spx has held the last line of defense so far for the inverse h/s scenario and i'm long at 1331......the local xjo looked like being bought soon after making the low today and if that inverse play keeps on track we may attain 4375......

that's the hourly perspective right now.......i'll be interested to see how this reads in two weeks from now......

 

[Joules MM1]

this triangle thing keeps making new ground......

cupla interesting things:

circled wave A is 70% of wave C

within circled wave C the a is 100% of c (equality)

we have proportionate threes, that is, if you look at the patterning all the moves in threes are currently within reasonable same-size degrees of trend
all the b's within each move carry the hook hall-marks of distribution

the first two impulsive attempts to buy up price (waves a and c of circled A) looked the right goods but became overlapped and called into question the 1526 low as a buyers opportunity......we are extremely compressed and this is the best time to wait for those other people who live on another planet to move price before committing to a large bet on direction

we are yet to finish wave D circled and then a sharp hook wave E circled upward.......the E is unlikely to play ball the same way, likely to be news driven (when isnt gold news driven these days?)

a news driven price is an anathema to a healthy uptrend and commensurate with an interruption to trend unfortunately it is also a foundation of bounces (that look like the real deal) in a downtrend

all this suggests we have some more downside to go, target dependent where exactly the triangle is exited

currently, any impulsive move and weekly hold above 1626 would bring in the alternate count for this regime .....a close below 1563 would cement the downside requiring only an overnight hold to satisfy the short sell

there's no clear evidence to suggest that anything other than a sudden rash of buying by Commercials with short covering by money managers is going to resolve this malady

as a bonus, once this triangle is complete there should be a clear target and the move down should be swift......good news for bulls, get this stuff done with!

 

[Joules MM1]

quick review

zero's death cross
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10488&page=33&p=718417#post718417

the long play i first began to work (where i am more likely to hold a 24 hour trade
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10488&page=32&p=715047#post715047

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=47687&d=1340930699

thus far the inv h/s pattern playing out with min target 1409......the major pattern i was expecting was an ending diagonal wedge to form....that's a big jump in a broad idea of how the us markets might play out attempting to form a higher high and running out of bids......as momentum kicks in that picture can change extremely rapidly to a new break-out to make new altime highs which is anecdotally hard to qualify.....i am merely concerned with any clues from pricing....less volume might mean something, might mean nothing seasonally, who knows! ......talking heads have been pointing to recent failure by the DJTA to make new highs with the SPX .....they obviously are in a rush to miss that the trans have also made new altime highs along with the cumulative NYAD......all these things need correct context which i find a real challenge and it keeps me inclined to close positions early rather than letting them run for a few days......as patterns develop i am allowing small positions to run after scaling out of the bulk of an initial entry......i used to say that when i am right i score some of the points and when i'm wrong i score all of the points......

the arrows on the charts point to trades left open from friday.....the XJO longs were taken soon after the cash close due to the strength where the index should have sold off and the euro region began forcing shorts to cover and clearly some buy set-ups were triggered and what appeared to me to be an absence of algo activity (most likely they got run over too)

i am protecting 1620 in gold shorts left open on friday...not much more to say about gold.....it's dependent soley on commercials forcing money managers to cover shorts......that's about it....all the smaller time frame games keep saying price is headed to lower for now until a rectum rocket can be forced.....the triangle regime i have been attempting to run also suggests more downside even though i got it wrong a couple of times it now looks to have reasserted, or, at least fits well given the absence (i have yet to see) of any other data......'d be mighty sus of an impulsive break of 1620 area and add to shorts on an overnight hold below the base of the tri which runs currently through 1568 area

i am looking for min 4350 to 4375 XJO .....i do not think the index has found it's final weekly low and the choppy overlapping nature and time spent making this region says to me we have several quarters to go before a genuine bull trend can begin......i am also recognising that a new bull trend does not require a lower low......

depending exactly how the SPX makes pattern over the next two weeks is likely to confirm a major break-out upwards or the attempt to distribute and fail to make april highs.....these days seems all this stuff is business as usual!

the daily/4 hour patterning view is my current attempt to have simplicity in my profiling the internal trade set-up, where is the strength and who is likely to be building there own game and forcing direction.......


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addendum



the cot report tends to underpin my thinking that the cliff edge of equities is away off....in other words, even tho i am expecting a near-term larger top, i do not expect a huge sell off.....even tho the commercials withdrew in a major way from the long side they have not made a commensurate contra position, not enough to signal a major decline......even tho the small speculators tend to be at a peak (as they are now) at the end of a move, what is not showing is a heavy contra pos by the commercials which i would expect to appear right now which tends to make me think several months of sideways chop is more likely than a straight reversal from up to down

 

[tech/a]

Nice analyais.

 

[Joules MM1]

STO gold additions this morning.....seems appropriate to call them Pearson and Mears



protecting 1620's

 

[Joules MM1]

after having to give up shorts at 1620 i resold when the overhead of the tri heald firm and have allowed for news spikes to break the overhead......i wont go into all the hyperbole surrounding how gold is sposed to be stella-bound right now.......safe to say, seller bound is still the key, i think, technically inclined.....

 

[Joules MM1]

this is the channel being saved by speculators......a break of the lower diagonal line should create an orthodox shift more horizontal in time extreme than lower price extreme before a new channel can be formed, rather, this current channel be adjusted to find the new upside target.......i think we are in the do-or-die zone for the bulls for the next several months
bulls need to mount 1628 and hold that level for a week to dismiss the downside.....if that can be done without news then that would be a very strong signal to be long......a 2-session close below 1605 would be the first step on calling downside in progress and a simple closing bar underside the low of the triangle to call the upside over for the next few weeks, possibly months....i suspect any break is likely to be smartish......