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Joules MM1;724188 said:
anecdotally speaking
i omitted to mention the reasoning behind the post was the glaring diff between swap dealers for gold v silver.......my thinking is silver being industrial demand, both qualitative and quantitative, that the lean toward long-side pos v the gold numbers tend to suggest we may be in for several more months of the same for gold futures whereas silver looks to flourish.......this would be a divergence of demand, different to a sell signal, more like a do nothing signal
relative numbers
silver futures pos at 14/08/12
swaps dealers 20,559 long and 6,801 short
gold futures
swaps dealers 50,179 long and 61,751 short
as a percentage or as a ratio i get a reading thus
(shorts/longs where more than 1.0 is bearish reading)
0.33 (strong, bullish) silver and
1.23 (weak, bearish) gold
(longs+shorts/longs) plotted as a 10 day over the spot price might make for interesting reading if only to confirm how lame price action has been and how gold as a value (or) as a liquidity vehicle versus other more attractive opportunities
the swaps dealers as a group are pretty savvy and my guess theyre seeing industrial silver as a much stronger play whereas theyre seeing gold as simply a no-go zone rather than an outright demand or supply....also, i've rec'd two emails this week from guys who are on a waiting list to receive silver purchases as supply is so tight the same cannot be said of gold
maybe, as a function, the swaps group is beyond mere opinion as that's how they make their income......
http://www.cftc.gov/OCE/WEB/index.htm
METALS
NYMEX Gold futures open interest fell 2.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 57.8 percent of open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 0.2 percent and increased their short positions by 3.8 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 32.4 percent of open interest, held net long positions. They decreased their long positions by 5.6 percent and decreased their short positions by 18.0 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 9.8 percent of total open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 3.0 percent and decreased their short positions by 21.8 percent.
NYMEX Silver futures open interest fell 3.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 44.6 percent of open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 10.1 percent and increased their short positions by 7.4 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 41.5 percent of open interest, held net long positions. They increased their long positions by 1.9 percent and decreased their short positions by 11.5 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 13.9 percent of total open interest, held net long positions; they decreased their long positions by 2.4 percent and decreased their short positions by 19.4 percent.
NYMEX Copper futures open interest fell 2.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 48.1 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they decreased their long positions by 0.4 percent and increased their short positions by 5.0 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 41.4 percent of open interest, held net short positions. They decreased their long positions by 3.2 percent and decreased their short positions by 5.5 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 10.5 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 13.6 percent and decreased their short positions by 11.3 percent.
