JIN - Jumbo Interactive
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I'm not saying I didn't expect it though - it's just that the market has run it so hard that it can only be bloodbath from here.The joy of small caps and spectacular run.
TTV 59m, December forecast 58m-62m and I think the market price for $62m
not meeting the upper end but still ok
Still holding - the marketing expenditure overseas drags the profit down a fair bit (as do the accounting changes), however I must admit the domestic marketing expenditure does not appear to be having nearly as much effect as previous reports.
Whilst at the same time TTS the owner of the OZ Lotto product and Brand (not to be confused, but probably is, with JIN's Oz lotteries web site) seems to be having a good time of it on line.
Looking forward.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/35724-tatts-to-pursue-more-online-opportunities.html
A combination of things, but the main thing is the absence of a competitive advantage - I think competition is starting to heat up in Australia with Tatts (especilly given their half-year report). At some point Tatts is going to attack their customer base - and I don't see how they can fend them off when Tatts has a bigger advertising kitty and better pricing power. Tatts own the content, and JIN effectively on-sell it (and pay TTS a commission). Take out the premium pricing of lottery tickets used by JIN and how much profit do they make? It may be a slow, drawn out affair, but I can't see JIN winning the battle long-term.
The second is my hesitation with the huge amounts of cash they are starting to throwing at opportunities. Look at the start-up returns in Australia over the last decade - they've only just came to fruition. I have no way of knowing what returns they will make (if any) and the competition in these markets is much heavier than Australia. It's impossible to value at this point for that reason alone. Are these announcements just a distraction to get institutional investors on the books?
Tough shareholder you are! They can only announce if they get the right to sell and this expansion costs money. The new startups are like finding double the resource in a mining stock and given this company has no debt, is using it's own cash in bank to do it, paying a dividend at the same time, that's the best a shareholder can expect!
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When I first looked at these guys I didn't like the fact they were capitalising certain items (customer acquisition costs + website development) it just didn't smell right. They stopped capitalising customer acquisitions last year and yesterday in their updated profit guidance (which was pretty underwhelming) there was this red flag.
OK, it's a non-cash adjustment but I don't like accounting funny business.
OK, it's a non-cash adjustment but I don't like accounting funny business.
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Yeah.
When you consider that a year ago they were talking about the conversion of Aus lotto to online moving up from 7% and now the only positives we hear are about the O/S expansion...it does agree with what you are saying.
When I analysed this one I was basing it on 15% growth year on domestic growth...when I saw the latest update my initial reaction was SHORT! Too bad I didn't
I bought it a lot lower than today's price and based my valuation on current earnings being maintainable, with a probability that some growth was possible. These companies are too hard to gauge to buy at higher earnings and higher multiples.Yeah.
When I analysed this one I was basing it on 15% growth year on domestic growth...when I saw the latest update my initial reaction was SHORT! Too bad I didn't
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I agree with you, and in hindsight (ive learnt alot in the last 12 months) my valuation was probably quite optimistic/risky - but I never had it valued higher than around $2.20. Was only through the use of a rising stop loss that allowed me to get rid of the bulk of them for a much better price.
After all the negative talk it was a decent result....plenty of cash....customer based grow still
Very strong in Australia...more Customers money show more people are playing and keep cash in the account
Oversea expansion at a decent pace and fairly quick...
They got lottery reward running and start growing US customer based going
German and Mexico online in a few months.
Not expecting much money in short term but once they got decent size customers database
The power of leverage earning will kicks in
Very strong in Australia...more Customers money show more people are playing and keep cash in the account
Oversea expansion at a decent pace and fairly quick...
They got lottery reward running and start growing US customer based going
German and Mexico online in a few months.
Not expecting much money in short term but once they got decent size customers database
The power of leverage earning will kicks in
Have you looked at the Tatts result today, ROE?
The TTS investor preso says that their online lottery sales grew by 35.2% in the last 12 months and now 8.2% of all lottery sales made by the company are online. It looks like this will keep growing at a rapid clip.
Contrast this to JIN who had a revenue increase in the current financial year of 5%.
However, the CEO has the nerve to say in the JIN preso that internet lotteries are growing by 20% and 30% per annum in Australia.
How come the major competitor who owns all of the intellectual property and branding for the games themselves that JIN feeds off is growing at 35% and JIN can only manage 5%?
Does JIN need to remove their "price premium" to continue growing and what affect does this have on their profitability?
If I was still a shareholder I would be asking those tough questions of my investment.
The TTS investor preso says that their online lottery sales grew by 35.2% in the last 12 months and now 8.2% of all lottery sales made by the company are online. It looks like this will keep growing at a rapid clip.
Contrast this to JIN who had a revenue increase in the current financial year of 5%.
However, the CEO has the nerve to say in the JIN preso that internet lotteries are growing by 20% and 30% per annum in Australia.
How come the major competitor who owns all of the intellectual property and branding for the games themselves that JIN feeds off is growing at 35% and JIN can only manage 5%?
Does JIN need to remove their "price premium" to continue growing and what affect does this have on their profitability?
If I was still a shareholder I would be asking those tough questions of my investment.
All valid questions, but I take a more liberal view and dont go into every little details because it worry you more than it shoud and you tend to act a little irrational sometimes...
I am not saying it works all the time but I do keep tab on it and it doesnt work out that bad for me.
I am more of a bigger pictures .....
Every stocks I own for a long time, it always has some sort of question mark of its earnings and other stuff if you go into little details....
I am more of a larger picture look .... Customer growing or losing? Do they continue to make money and has strong balance sheet ....
There always period where your business is no good or face a bit of a hard time or whatever but I stick to it if the over picture is good because time will erase most of those little things...
If balance sheet goes bad or other key critical business fundamental change then yes I exit and question hard..
That really my thinking I am sure other has different methods....
I am not saying it works all the time but I do keep tab on it and it doesnt work out that bad for me.
I am more of a bigger pictures .....
Every stocks I own for a long time, it always has some sort of question mark of its earnings and other stuff if you go into little details....
I am more of a larger picture look .... Customer growing or losing? Do they continue to make money and has strong balance sheet ....
There always period where your business is no good or face a bit of a hard time or whatever but I stick to it if the over picture is good because time will erase most of those little things...
If balance sheet goes bad or other key critical business fundamental change then yes I exit and question hard..
That really my thinking I am sure other has different methods....
With JIN's Mexico deal falling through, this share has been hammered in recent times.
Too much, I think. It was higher than this pre-Mexico expansion, still has the Aussie base, and huge prospects in Germany (in my opinion).
Could be a good time to buy cheap. I'm not going to, I've still got freehold from the last run-up.
Too much, I think. It was higher than this pre-Mexico expansion, still has the Aussie base, and huge prospects in Germany (in my opinion).
Could be a good time to buy cheap. I'm not going to, I've still got freehold from the last run-up.
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The Aussie base is going backwards per the December HY report. That's in the same environment that has Tatts reporting very strong growth in online lottery sales. It seems more like the competitive attack started 12-18 months ago and has revealed that JIN has very little going for it that can't be easily taken away by those who are operating the lotteries, as opposed to selling tickets. They do a very good job of selling the next big thing...First it was Australia, then USA, then Mexico, now Germany.
Again, The Australian business is going backwards while internet lottery ticket sales in Australia boom. It seems clear as daylight to me.
skc
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The Aussie base is going backwards per the December HY report. That's in the same environment that has Tatts reporting very strong growth in online lottery sales. It seems more like the competitive attack started 12-18 months ago and has revealed that JIN has very little going for it that can't be easily taken away by those who are operating the lotteries, as opposed to selling tickets. They do a very good job of selling the next big thing...First it was Australia, then USA, then Mexico, now Germany.
Again, The Australian business is going backwards while internet lottery ticket sales in Australia boom. It seems clear as daylight to me.
JIN sells a standard Sat night pick at 85c each. The actual cost of the ticket is ~65.4c each, and you can buy them on Tatts website for the same price.
http://www.ozlotteries.com/play/saturday-lotto/standard
https://tatts.com/nswlotteries/buy-lotto/purchase-ticket?product=LottoSaturday
Anyone who's a regular lotto player and has some google skill should have switched away from JIN already. I am actually surprised that they had any growth whatsoever.
P.S. My reserach is limited to a single product, so DYOR.
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JIN with a guidance announcement out today. Looks like they are getting a handle on costs, with NPAT forecast to jump nicely. TTV and revenue growth is still looking strong albeit the growth rate moderating slightly.
It's been a very long time since i've looked at old Jumbo, so not much else to say...but the price certainly isn't expensive at a glance - market might be factoring some of SKC's comments above relating to a unsustainable model
It's been a very long time since i've looked at old Jumbo, so not much else to say...but the price certainly isn't expensive at a glance - market might be factoring some of SKC's comments above relating to a unsustainable model
