JIN - Jumbo Interactive

[leyy]

Wow it gapped up today to close at $15 up 12.78%.

@ROE I hope you are still holding from 2016 from 80 cents.

I am a happy holder up over 100% since November 2018.

 

[galumay]

I too hope @ROE is still a holder, I know someone on twitter who is a 50 bagger on JIN. You dont need many of these if you have the temperament to hold through the volatility over the years!

 

[Zaxon]

Wow it gapped up today to close at $15 up 12.78%.

It certainly did. Part of that could be attributed to the dip we had shortly before, and the recovery from that.

I am a happy holder up over 100% since November 2018.

Excellent! I'm up 131% since I bought in.

 

[rnr]

Jumbo Interactive has gone from strength to strength over the last 2-3 months and now taking another breather. Are the last 3 bars forming a consolidation to push even higher?

 

[Zaxon]

now taking another breather.

How dare it! People, you need to gamble more. I need to feed off your losses.

 

[leyy]

@Zaxon hope you are still holding JIN.

Fast forward another six months and now it's reached a new all time high circa $27.

JIN is now my single biggest holding.

Need to think about balancing my portfolio.

 

[investtrader]

"Great investment track records tend to be determined by a few great ideas. Murray Stahl analysed Peter Lynch's famous track record of earning 29.2% p.a. between 1977 and 1990, with a view to understanding how a portfolio containing 1,400 stocks could do so well. Surely a thousand plus stocks would be a proxy for market returns?

Instead, Stahl found that just two stocks, both of which emerged from bankruptcy, accounted for most of the performance. That's two stocks in 1,400."
Maybe you shouldn't rebalance?

 

[So_Cynical]

"Great investment track records tend to be determined by a few great ideas, Stahl found that just
two stocks, both of which emerged from bankruptcy, accounted for most of the performance. That's two stocks in 1,400." Maybe you shouldn't rebalance?

I have been doing this for 12 years and hold many stocks, it's always 1 - 3 out performers that make all the difference and often these stocks have to be
held through long periods of nothingness, CLV - Clover a great example, one just never really knows with stocks, it's a bit of a lottery at times.

 

[Zaxon]

@Zaxon hope you are still holding JIN.

Oh yes, I still hold it. Who says nothing grows forever? lol.

 

[Zaxon]

Instead, Stahl found that just two stocks, both of which emerged from bankruptcy, accounted for most of the performance. That's two stocks in 1,400."
Maybe you shouldn't rebalance?

That's the approach I take. My "balancing" takes place at the time I purchase a security by not overallocating to it. But once I own it, it can grow as much as it wants. In fact, I insist that it does!

 

[JTLP]

Smacked down today on a trading update that didn’t meet expectations.

I’ve liked this one but thought it was too frothy. Is now an entry point?

 

[galumay]

I dont think its a good business JLTP, would have to be awfully cheap to interest me. Shocking IRR, mainly because they keep issuing more shares - and then basically use the capital raised to pay dividends!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Jumbo Interactive has fallen 9 per cent to a six-month low of $16.88 after it told investors rising costs would hit its bottom line for H1 FY 2020. Its EBITDA margin is expected to fall 2.8 per cent to 60.1 per cent for H1 FY 2020 compared to 63.9 per cent in the prior corresponding half.

Great margins ! Haha. Sounds like GaaS (Gambling as a Solution) isn't "cost free". lots of interventions behind the scenes. Net profit growth around 13 per cent is tipped to come in lower than revenue growth around 24 per cent as acquisition and business development costs hit the bottom line.... Not a lay-down misère

 

[JTLP]

I dont think its a good business JLTP, would have to be awfully cheap to interest me. Shocking IRR, mainly because they keep issuing more shares - and then basically use the capital raised to pay dividends!

I see. Thanks for the heads up. I knew ROE liked them (what happened to him$m) and was recommending them around a $1 from memory!

 

[galumay]

I miss ROE, he had some good insights! He got in very early, maybe 80c? He still pops up on Hot Crapper occasionally and he made a fleeting visit here for one post a month or so ago.

 

[zaxacel1975]

Anyone have any thoughts on this stock? I cant see any resistance between here at about $7.90/$8.00 and that is still a fair way from the current price, and after already large falls.
Maybe the market already knows Tab wont renew their licence after 2022?

 

[zaxacel1975]

I meant support above, not resistance. Looks like there was some support at about $12.95 from end of March last year. Didn’t look like enough to turn this down trend, but not sure.
Apparently TAB deal doesn’t end in 2022, just transitions to rolling 12 month extensions.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and down

Five year screenshot

maybe this is why? harder to make a margin on incrementals:

JIN has announced a new 10-year reseller agreement with Tabcorp Holdings Ltd. Jumbo and Tabcorp have extended their reseller agreements for New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Northern Territory, ACT, and Tasmania (as well as international jurisdictions) until July 2032.

However, given the enlarged scale of Jumbo and the fundamental value of Tabcorp’s lottery licences to it, these agreements will come at a cost.

Jumbo has agreed to pay an upfront extension fee of $15 million for the 10-year term and a service fee of 4.65% of the ticket subscription price. The latter will be introduced in phases, initially with a service fee of 1.5% in FY 2021. After which, its service fees will increase to 2.5% in FY 2022, 3.5% in FY 2023, and then 4.65% thereafter. Though, should the value of its ticket sales be in excess of $400 million for each applicable financial year, it will pay a pay a service fee of 4.65% on ticket sales beyond that amount.

FY 2020 guidance.

Jumbo has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2020 despite a lower than expected number of large jackpots. It expects to report ticket sales of $335 million to $341 million and revenue of $68.5 million to $69.9 million. In respect to earnings, it is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $38.7 million to $40 million and net profit after tax in the range of $24.4 million to $25.3 million.

(used to hold, but in the early days. Probably sold too early, but hey!)

 

[peter2]

Since the last post JIN went from $10 to $15.

Today, the price has dropped 10% (to $13.00) after news that TAH has sold it's 11% holding (at $13.52). I'm wondering if this is an opportunity to buy JIN at the lower price. TAH has the distribution rights, so didn't need to continue to own it's holding in JIN. I'm not a fan of the TAH mgt team so I've discounted their involvement.

Recently Powerball payed out a 60million jackpot. These big jackpots increase sales. On the table for the board to consider.

 

[peter2]

Apologies for the intra-day chart but today's price action after the news helps the board come to a decision.

Today's price action reveals that other investors thought the same as I did as they bid the price up in the morning. However since then it's been all selling. There's no sign of a temporary bottom yet. There's still two hours before the close on what has been a overall down day (-0.5% so far). I'll wait until closer to the EOD.