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It could finish the week sitting on the 50% Fib
Btw, the black line is the 50 EWA.
Btw, the black line is the 50 EWA.
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Hi skyQuake,
All excellent points, and there's a lot more to be wary of.
Survivorship bias - some of it is present in the results. Many bankrupt companies are included, however.
Rebalancing - for this test, no rebalancing. Bought whenever criteria is met, and held for a year. Rebalancing is the standard way most studies conduct these tests. But it doesn't resemble real life where things happen every day. One of the reasons why I developed my own system.
Weighting - in this test, 2% per stock.
Looking at entire ASX.
Liquidity - ignored for this test.
The total return is only a part of the story. Hit rate, risk, volatility, timing, portfolio management are just as, if not more important. There is, however, a limit on how much I am prepared to share on a public forum
I wrote some thoughts about development of this kind of software in this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28370
Not sure which part of tech's post you added a "+1" to. Send me a private message if you are interested in more data.
KTP
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From today's AFR, titled 'A worrying trend for JB Hi-Fi', which may explain the drop in price:
"In consumer electronics, Dick Smith, which floated last December after being sold by Woolworths in 2012, seems to have taken online sales off its larger rival, JB Hi-Fi, in the past few months.
Traffic to JB Hi-Fi’s website rose 150 per cent to 100 million in 2014, but site visits so far this year have fallen 10 per cent, says the UBS analysis.
By contrast, Dick Smith’s site visits rose 80 per cent to 21 million last year and are up 65 per cent so far this year.
Mr Gilbert said Dick Smith’s gains appeared to have come almost exclusively from JB Hi-Fi.
“This is a worrying trend for JB Hi-Fi, particularly given the website is usually a good leading indicator for in-store sales,” he said."
"In consumer electronics, Dick Smith, which floated last December after being sold by Woolworths in 2012, seems to have taken online sales off its larger rival, JB Hi-Fi, in the past few months.
Traffic to JB Hi-Fi’s website rose 150 per cent to 100 million in 2014, but site visits so far this year have fallen 10 per cent, says the UBS analysis.
By contrast, Dick Smith’s site visits rose 80 per cent to 21 million last year and are up 65 per cent so far this year.
Mr Gilbert said Dick Smith’s gains appeared to have come almost exclusively from JB Hi-Fi.
“This is a worrying trend for JB Hi-Fi, particularly given the website is usually a good leading indicator for in-store sales,” he said."
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hiddencow said:
JBH didn't get to where it is just because of growing demand for electronic gadgets (although that provided plenty of wind in the sails). It was able to earn a return far above its cost of capital because its business model plugged into the market better than anyone else (it was really just a version of get em in with cheap crap and hope they buy something of higher value). What they've been doing for the last ten years won't cut it for the next ten years. That's not to say that they will fail, but it is to say that buying now you're taking a punt on the skill of management to adjust their business to the brave new world.
As I see it, JBH used to be very good at generating foot traffic (you could think of it as being cheap customer acquisition) through their stores because of their emphasis on things like CDs and video games, which also created a connection between JBH and the customer for when the customer wanted to buy a bigger ticket item like a stereo or TV etc. As these products become increasingly purchased online how does JBH continue to attract that foot traffic?
skc
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I am interested to know the breakdown of JBH's sale/margin between big ticket items and small gadgets. Obviously the margin on a "convinence" style SD card would be higher than a big ticket item like a TV, but you'd probably make more absolute $ per "sales effort" on the bigger ticket purchases.
On the other hand, looking back there was a fair bit of wind in the sails in the last 15 years.
Flatscreen TV, digital cameras and tablets were probably the biggest ones. Minor evolutions like 3D TVs, iphone n+1 etc don't have the same sustained replacement cycle. Smart phones were obviously big but the distribution channel of those are very different.
I don't know what the next big thing is, but I'd lke to see someone come up with something like a mini smart home ERP suite.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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skc
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I think it's found the low for the week... as long as XJO doesn't fall off a cliff.
I wouldn't trade it directly, but it makes a candidate for a pairs trade against another retailer (e.g. DSH or HVN).
Quite comfortable with it in fact.
Thank you for taking your time from being a super awesome trader to have concern for my position.
I've tried not to respond to your need to impose yourself onto these forums and provoke others who do things differently to you. You just keep asking for it though.
Small price movements up or down don't really concern me, my focus is on the next trading update at the AGM. Of course you do not understand this thinking and feel the need to come and gloat on the current loss on my position of less than a quarter of a percent.
Before I started posting on these forums I first came here to read the discussion on TGA a bit over two years ago. Of course you were busy deriding investors in that thread who were buying it when it was going down and thinking it was good value at those prices. Thankfully I didn't listen to your wisdom then.
I will keep posting and reading these forums because there are a few contributors here who provide valuable insights and I have learned a lot from reading their posts. I will no longer be wasting my time responding to your posts.
Each to their own methods. Don't mind T/A, he means well (I think) even if he comes off as abrasive.
I also lean towards the fundamentals side (although am not persuaded by JBH), as do plenty of excellent posters here. It would also be a mistake to disregard the opinions of those who lean towards technical analysis though.
The morgan stanley report shows an estimated breakdown of sales by product but there's no information on margins of each. I think JBH is very affected by surges in demand for certain products. MS also analysed flat screen tvs and wii consoles and compared them with the impact from the introduction of tablets.
I think Mclovin is probably right that a lot of their profits would have come from selling add on products such as cables and sd cards. I think they are still able to generate profits from these but to a lesser extent because everyone already has their TVs and cables and cameras and SD cards. There may be sales lost to the internet but that option has been there for the more cost conscious consumer for a long time along with computer stores which sell those products much cheaper. People are just not very aware of where to get the best deal or just too lazy.
JBH will do ok but not great until the next product that is a must have drives sales along with any accessories that go with that product and can be sold at higher margin. The iphone 6 will boost sales along with sale of cases but won't have too significant an impact as the majority are sold direct from apple or from the telcos.
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You don't need to lean towards T/A.
It leans on you.
I often ask what just happened there/then and don't get a Fundy answer.
Chances are you will find traders at work.
Share price action is an auction, and has no respect for value.
My take on it, after four years of reading Tech/a posts.
Traders are shorting JBH,
Tis a fact.
It is verifiable.
Has nothing to do with mobile phones or vibrator batteries.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18617&page=45&highlight=TGA
That call was ok?
So is an average down on JBH.
JBH still doesn't display any bullish
Signs technically. So would not be a
Buy from me.
That call was ok?
So is an average down on JBH.
JBH still doesn't display any bullish
Signs technically. So would not be a
Buy from me.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Hiddencow. That is interesting. When I read what you have stated above it is hardly a massive endorsement of the companies future growth prospects is it?
I wonder if the price decline is more attractive than the actual business?
Go read back a few pages to where you bought, sold for a lower price and then bought back in for a higher price all the while throwing insults at all the people who just bought and are probably still holding today. I couldn't resist responding to you but now I've found the ignore function. I suggest you add me to your list as well so you don't end up giving your wonderful advice without anybody listening.
It's future growth depends on the release of new popular products which I'm confident will keep happening over the long run. There are definitely risks to its growth but there are positives as well. I mentioned in my first post that I'm buying cause I see JBH is the leading electronics retailer and I don't see the whole industry dying out.
At the current prices, I don't need growth to make an adequate return. Dividend of 5.5% with a payout ratio of 65%.
If growth does come then it will be a very nice bonus as the fickle market will probably rerate it up to a high PE once again.
Yes, traders influence shareprice. Yes their opinions have merits. Hence me suggesting you should not be disregarded...
I disagree that 'share price... has no respect for value', but don't really want to derail the thread further - I was actually trying to help hiddencrow appreciate T/A's warnings and appreciate the potential merit of technical analysis generally.
I also don't really know what your point is about traders shorting JBH - doesn't necessarily mean they're right, or that JBH share price will tank.
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JBH - 52 Week Range:
15.03 to 23.13
Call that respect?!
Definitely going down!
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They must be desperate. I was standing in line at JB a while back waiting to pay for my wares and the bloke in front of me was paying for a $29 digital TV box. The girl on the counter was pushing him to buy extra warranty for 'only' $20. He laughed at her and said if it broke he'd throw it in the canal behind his house and just buy another one. An anecdotal indicator that they are relying on the upsell.
Julia
In Memoriam
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Yes. I was given the spiel about various Notebooks I was considering at Dick Smith and was offered "for an extra $40 we can set it all up for you". Yeah? What are you actually going to set up for the $40?
Answer: we can put your email address and password on the new device.
"Anything else?" Um, probably not.
"I don't think so"
