JBH - JB Hi-Fi

[matty77]

Oh this will be fun to watch.

Poor Gerry..

While I doubt it will improve anything for JB it will certainly be another nail in the coffin for Gerry no doubt he will be up in arms and be in the media saying how bad this will be for the industry!

"We dont need more competition, we need my share price to go up. Oh did I tell you I dont care about our share price - p.s. Down with online sales"

 

[jank]

Oh this will be fun to watch.

Poor Gerry..

While I doubt it will improve anything for JB it will certainly be another nail in the coffin for Gerry no doubt he will be up in arms and be in the media saying how bad this will be for the industry!

"We dont need more competition, we need my share price to go up. Oh did I tell you I dont care about our share price - p.s. Down with online sales"

Never a truer word spoken!

 

[clinta44]

The Market has gone crazy today! The media is going on about what a great result JB Hi Fi posted today!

In my opinion, the result was Pathetic, (the key measure for retailers) same store sales are down 3.5% on the back of an already bad previous period!

Then the SP is up 15% - pure madness.

 

[skc]

The Market has gone crazy today! The media is going on about what a great result JB Hi Fi posted today!

In my opinion, the result was Pathetic, (the key measure for retailers) same store sales are down 3.5% on the back of an already bad previous period!

Then the SP is up 15% - pure madness.

Jan comp sales were up a good amount. Market's saying that all the rate cuts have finally start to filter thru, and margin improvement will continue with less cut throat discounting.

But most importantly, JBH is THE most shorted stock on ASX and an inline results would see a lot of short covering... a dividend of 50c makes the short every expensive to hold (along with the high borrow costs).

You are seeing the same thing in MYR, DJS and HVN today, and will see the same market reaction if they report inline results imho.

It is pure madeness that I thought about all this and didn't buy on open today...

 

[clinta44]

It is pure madeness that I thought about all this and didn't buy on open today...

Then it would have tanked!

 

[CanOz]

Jan comp sales were up a good amount. Market's saying that all the rate cuts have finally start to filter thru, and margin improvement will continue with less cut throat discounting.

But most importantly, JBH is THE most shorted stock on ASX and an inline results would see a lot of short covering... a dividend of 50c makes the short every expensive to hold (along with the high borrow costs).

You are seeing the same thing in MYR, DJS and HVN today, and will see the same market reaction if they report inline results imho.

It is pure madeness that I thought about all this and didn't buy on open today...

If anyone ever wanted to know how to play the short squeeze, this is it!

CanOz

 

[skc]

If anyone ever wanted to know how to play the short squeeze, this is it!

CanOz

FLT is also a good candidate. I'd watch the results and dividends closely...

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

I did flag this as a short squeeze with some potential a while ago. Go see the newbie thread. It's a few pages back.

 

[inyaface]

Why is this stock still climbing like there is no end to their growth. Surely with their EPS, this must be a bubble waiting to burst. well not burst....deflate a bit.

 

[matty77]

Went to a store today.

15 staff standing around doing nothing, some playing drums and guitar in music section. In TV section about 5 staff watching a movie being streamed off a I-phone.

No idea how they can afford so many wages..

2 Customers in the whole store

 

[skc]

Went to a store today.

15 staff standing around doing nothing, some playing drums and guitar in music section. In TV section about 5 staff watching a movie being streamed off a I-phone.

No idea how they can afford so many wages..

2 Customers in the whole store

It is a Tuesday morning so that might explain the lack of customers? Doesn't explain the staffing level though...

 

[Klogg]

It is a Tuesday morning so that might explain the lack of customers? Doesn't explain the staffing level though...

Depends... If I go to the store in Melb CBD before 11:30, it's usually empty. Between 12 and 2:30 it goes nuts.

It could be they were preparing for the rush.

 

[G Gekko]

Taking a look at JBH, it seems like a great business to get into. Strong fundamentals and well positioned to do very well as the economy picks up again. Just can't help but feel that it's a little overpriced? Would it be that due to the strong brand that everyone is expecting it to perform well?

 

[VSntchr]

Taking a look at JBH, it seems like a great business to get into. Strong fundamentals and well positioned to do very well as the economy picks up again. Just can't help but feel that it's a little overpriced? Would it be that due to the strong brand that everyone is expecting it to perform well?

If you want to invest based on fundamentals and growth prospects then you need to have at least a basic understanding of valuation.
By having a way to value a company you can then make your own decision about how the market is pricing the company and if it agrees with your perceptions with regard to growth.

Only a few months ago JBH was being looked at very negatively and nobody wanted it. Now its back in fashion and the price is up ~70% from its lows...
Has the business changed in VALUE by ~70% in that time? The answer is clearly no, so your correct in assuming that pricing reflects what peoples perceptions are about the company.

By having your own valuation of the company you can take advantage of the wild swings in perceptions that take over prices from time to time. However, if you take this approach you must have a deep understanding of the company and be confident of your assumptions and beliefs...otherwise - when the market offers you the best opportunities (i.e. perhaps JBH a few months back)...you will be unwilling to take the plunge!

 

[G Gekko]

Thanks VSntchr. You're absolutely right.

 

[sammy84]

Can anyone explain today's drop?
XAO is up along with other retailers. I can't seem to find any news out there which may have caused it.
It's a light volume down move so far.

 

[McLovin]

I haven't gone to a JB Home store yet. Are they trying to be Harvey Norman but instead of rip off prices and hand holding, they have cheaper prices but poor customer service?

Answering here as it's more related to JBH...

Here's pricing indexes for a few of the major electronic (first chart) and whitegoods retailers (second chart). It bounces around a fair bit, but yes they are generally in the mid/lower price range.

 

[VSntchr]

Well McLovin, here is the breakdown you were after and it looks like you were correct in your suspicions.

Australia
 Total sales grew by 6.5% to $1.84b, with comparable sales up
2.3%.
 The newly converted HOME stores1 achieved comparable sales
growth of 13.6% in HY14 post conversion.
 Hardware2 sales in HY14 were up 11.0%, with comparable sales
up 6.6% driven by growth across the majority of categories
including Visual.
 Software sales (Music, Movies and Games) in HY14 were
negative 7.9% and on a comparable basis were negative 11.3%
(HY13: -10.8%).

 

[pixel]

Holding the (yellow) 1-year EMA would be a good start.
However, for me to become interested in an entry, $18.80 would need to become support. So far, no go.

 

[VSntchr]

With regard to JBH's EBIT margins - does anyone have a good idea of why the HY is usually ahead of the FY margin?

For example FY13 was ~5% while both HY13 HY14 were both ~6.8%.

Random thoughts are:
- It is related to the holiday period where JBH has increased turnover and can push suppliers even further?
- Or is it that in the non-holiday period that they are forced to discount prices further in order to keep volumes moving?
- Or is it a reflection of the product mix that is sold during the holiday period which are higher margin products?
- Something completely obvious that I am missing????