IVC - InvoCare Limited

[Country Lad]

I'm looking to hear opinions as to why prices fell upon positive report?

1. Lowered guidance and market disappointed with lower growth - expected more
2. Market share fell

Sell-off may have been a little overdone, but that is the market these days of volatility.

 

[HelloU]

as above, and the recent 'takeover' thing did not help make management shine. Non-cyclical so a good industry to see if your strategies are working.....so growth estimates need to be better.

 

[So_Cynical]

Looking at the 5 years chart, big picture, today's drop to 13 dollars isn't a big deal, just hitting the bottom support line, stocks being stocks.
`

 

[fanger]

I'm looking to hear opinions as to why prices fell upon positive report?
FY18 net profit up 37% to $97.4m (Consensus est 62.375m, Citi est $76.77). Sales revenue up 1.8% to $470.9m. Operating EBITDA up 7.8% to $124.3m.

I thought the report was excellent but there outlook is flat for next year. I'm still happy to hold.

 

[peter2]

First bullish signs for a long time puts this into my reversal watch list. I'd prefer to see a setup on the weekly chart rather than the daily.

 

[HelloU]

Yup, having little nibbles but no real rush required imo, management still pretty quiet so any load is way too gutsy for me. There are peeps that would be 30% down in 4 months so no doubt some will be bailing idc making that stairway up a slow grind - assuming there will be an up.......cos up would mean $13ish now is cheap, rather than fair. Not so sure.

 

[HelloU]

2 days later and management has spoken......seems 13 was neither cheap nor fair.........seems 13 was expensive........down 6% on speaking......maybe u need to use the monthly chat @peter2 for ur signal...just for a little more safety factor. lol.

 

[peter2]

The latest presentation reads well. Business has dropped by only 6-7% for logical reasons (US closure, Singapore temp closure, refurbs and would you believe it less Aussies are dying).

The chart shows that the share price has dropped 30% in 2018. Price is near support at 12.50, double bottom weekly and monthly charts. I would expect long term investors will start buying soon and create the bullish setup that I need to see. Well worth keeping on the reversal watch list.

 

[So_Cynical]

The chart shows that the share price has dropped 30% in 2018. Price is near support at 12.50, double bottom weekly and monthly charts. I would expect long term investors will start buying soon and create the bullish setup that I need to see.

Yep i think ive convinced myself - though im not 100% comfortable with buying death shares..

 

[HelloU]

*chart

........ less Aussies are dying......

no consideration for others....joke peeps.
cynical, like I said I thought it was getting safe and was nibbling packets but that down yesterday has reinforced that I know absolutely nothing. Maybe u could grab some monash ivf at the same time as an appeasement to ur gods to help balance those thoughts u r having. My balance to recent downs here is in helping to prolong those lives with upside in cyp and hopefully imu (nugget warnings), but eventually we all go the ivc way - or the other mob into this.

 

[greggles]

IVC is starting to look a little ill. It hasn't plumbed these depths since April 2016. The Performance Update released yesterday didn't inspire any confidence.

 

[peter2]

Can I mention that reversals normally take some time to form. It's very rare to see a "V" reversal after a high volume down bar that closes near it's low.

This current price action may be capitulation selling. This is the first requirement for a reversal. An acceptable setup (for me) may not form for six months. IVC is still on my reversal watchlist and I'll see it when it forms.

 

[peter2]

Here's a chart of a nameless stock. On the left, I bought the BO-NH and was looking sweet, until some bad news was released. I didn't think the news was that bad so kept an eye on the chart. It was just a division having a period of slow demand and this weighed on the overall P&L. It took four months for the reversal to form and price is currently higher than the swing high on this chart.

 

[So_Cynical]

The Performance Update released yesterday didn't inspire any confidence.

It sparked a little confidence in me, made me spend an hour or so looking over the last Annual report and a couple from years past, 18000 share holders so i figure lots of mums and dads and SMSF's the number of shareholders has increased by over 100% in the last decade while shares on issue is only up about 12%, yesterdays selling was a little panic selling from retail investors that only found out about the previous 7% fall when the market was closed.

Top 20 owns 52% and its a who's who of LIC's and Banks, BKI, Argo, AFI, AUI, IOOF, Milton etc - IVC is a widely held and widely liked stock and its not hard to see why, 25% margins, market domination in a market that few want to participate in, easy roll up opportunity's, disruption proof and cant be done in China, they haven't raised capital in 10 years and even purchase shares on market for their dividend reinvestment plan.

Lots to like - Im in.

 

[So_Cynical]

Lots to like - Im in.

Early days yet but so far so good, volume is dropping by the day and volatility has stalled.
~

 

[peter2]

For those of you who know Wolfe waves. Is my application correct?

 

[HelloU]

MQG seem keen.....have been buying and now substantial holder.

 

[HelloU]

mid june also often presents buying opportunities for this (not always but usually) in the tax merry go round. Of course, you can never go back to mid may18 if you are at mid jun18.

 

[HelloU]

MQG seem keen.....have been buying and now substantial holder.

and as quick as that they are not.

 

[So_Cynical]

and as quick as that they are not.

Looks like they were closing out shorts - Borrow return?

The becoming Ann the day before was - Borrow delivery and some Borrow returns.

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Anyway up 5% today and im in the money...