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IVC - InvoCare Limited
- Thread starter dennisll
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Sharp drop today on no news.
Sharp drop today on no news.
skc
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Re: IVC - Invocare
AGM last week prompting updates from various analysts.
Downgraded by UBS today.
The market has been marking down sharp a bunch of mid-cap shares that were trading at high PE multiples... like REA, CRZ, FLT, DMP, AGI, IIN, TPM, MTU, AMM etc. IVC fits the bill quite well.
AGM last week prompting updates from various analysts.
Downgraded by UBS today.
The market has been marking down sharp a bunch of mid-cap shares that were trading at high PE multiples... like REA, CRZ, FLT, DMP, AGI, IIN, TPM, MTU, AMM etc. IVC fits the bill quite well.
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skc
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Re: IVC - Invocare
I will buy IVC only if they offer discounted coffin and plot for the holder
I will buy IVC only if they offer discounted coffin and plot for the holder
skc
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Half year report out today. Revenue up 5% to $183.6m. Reported NPAT $21.5m but included some one-offs. Operating earning down 9% to $17.2m due to... less people dying! Yet share price only down 3.5%
So full year these guys will probably have flatish EPS @ 40c... so they are trying at 28x earning.
Some shares you say it's priced for perfection. This one, it's priced for World War Z.
Anyway... got a short trade on these at current levels in anticipation of some analyst downgrade tomorrow. Position size is only small though as it's not the most liquid stock around.
Half year report out today. Revenue up 5% to $183.6m. Reported NPAT $21.5m but included some one-offs. Operating earning down 9% to $17.2m due to... less people dying! Yet share price only down 3.5%
So full year these guys will probably have flatish EPS @ 40c... so they are trying at 28x earning.
Some shares you say it's priced for perfection. This one, it's priced for World War Z.
Anyway... got a short trade on these at current levels in anticipation of some analyst downgrade tomorrow. Position size is only small though as it's not the most liquid stock around.
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Got down to $10.75 today, starting to look tasty for me (long term perspective).
Got down to $10.75 today, starting to look tasty for me (long term perspective).
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Priced to the moon and growth is not getting there just yet.
Id be waiting for single digits on this at least....
Priced to the moon and growth is not getting there just yet.
Id be waiting for single digits on this at least....
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Hmmm...so IVC is leveraged to an increasing death rate and market share improvements.
Latest result shows that despite IVC stating the expected death rate is to climb by 1% p.a, it most recently fell by 0.8% pa....And they lost market share..yet the price has gone up since the result!
They also talk about rigorous cost management, yet the costs I am looking at are all up substantially. Personnel expenses are up ~11% vs. total rev growth of 5% (incl. acquired businesses).
Operating margin 22.5% vs 24.4% PCP.
There is nothing horrible about these results, but when you sitting on a 25x earnings multiple and offering a 3% yield...I'd be wanting a little more...
Hmmm...so IVC is leveraged to an increasing death rate and market share improvements.
Latest result shows that despite IVC stating the expected death rate is to climb by 1% p.a, it most recently fell by 0.8% pa....And they lost market share..yet the price has gone up since the result!
They also talk about rigorous cost management, yet the costs I am looking at are all up substantially. Personnel expenses are up ~11% vs. total rev growth of 5% (incl. acquired businesses).
Operating margin 22.5% vs 24.4% PCP.
There is nothing horrible about these results, but when you sitting on a 25x earnings multiple and offering a 3% yield...I'd be wanting a little more...
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Re: IVC - Invocare
Edit: was looking at H1 not FY!
H2 was much better than H1, but still not shooting the lights out...
Edit: was looking at H1 not FY!
H2 was much better than H1, but still not shooting the lights out...
galumay
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Re: IVC - Invocare
I noticed the Interest cover ratio has improved significantly, that was an obvious problem for mine and kept IVC off my watch list.
I still find its trading above the IV i calculate for it, growth is simply too small to justify the price over $10.
I noticed the Interest cover ratio has improved significantly, that was an obvious problem for mine and kept IVC off my watch list.
I still find its trading above the IV i calculate for it, growth is simply too small to justify the price over $10.
Re: IVC - Invocare
Market appears to have liked its 1H14 result with the shares up nearly 9% today.
1H14 operating EPS was up 13% with the divvy up 5%. They seem to have arrested the decline in their market share while also benefiting from price increases (4.4% yoy) albeit volume growth was fairly stagnant. May and June showed a sharper increase in volumes vs pcp.
If no volume growth + 4% price growth = 13% bottom line growth, then imagine what the earnings could do if volumes start growing again, as shown in May and June.
I continue to hold, albeit the stock is now trading slightly ahead of my estimate of fair value.
Market appears to have liked its 1H14 result with the shares up nearly 9% today.
1H14 operating EPS was up 13% with the divvy up 5%. They seem to have arrested the decline in their market share while also benefiting from price increases (4.4% yoy) albeit volume growth was fairly stagnant. May and June showed a sharper increase in volumes vs pcp.
If no volume growth + 4% price growth = 13% bottom line growth, then imagine what the earnings could do if volumes start growing again, as shown in May and June.
I continue to hold, albeit the stock is now trading slightly ahead of my estimate of fair value.
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Re: IVC - Invocare
That's why I like this business, bought in at $10.50 still happy to hold long term.
More folks dyin' each year.
That's why I like this business, bought in at $10.50 still happy to hold long term.
Getting belted atm. It is about to report so that is a worry but some say drop to do with UK funeral firm (not associated) having issues. $15mill for some new buys but they have the $, so dunno (mind you the cashflow returns from the new buys - if approved by govt - look pretty ordinary. Gold or lead?