Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

IVC - InvoCare Limited

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So_Cynical said:
The big fall in late 2018 was all about the low death rates from the flu, COVID-19 will eventually
lead to a higher death rate, more funerals, this winter or the next it's unstoppable, a certainty.
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i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?

Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.

Good day and good riddance to you Sir.
 
tinhat said:
i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?

Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.

Good day and good riddance to you Sir.
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Really?
When everyone was dismissing that virus as another flu, i switched even more conservative and bought invocare and ann.
I do not see anything immoral in this.some people made their wealth here on company exploiting Australia and selling us fake goods.i did not go there.
I do not wish more death, and if a vaccines or treatment comes tomorrow, the better invocare will fall but we will all be better off.
It is an insurance bet, and a needed role in society.we all die..a decent company.
 
tinhat said:
i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?

Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.

Good day and good riddance to you Sir.
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You should read the IVC annual report, they have death charts and flu charts - Death is a terrible business but someone's gotta do it.
 
It is a very sad fact of life, with the baby boomers moving into the departure lounge, funeral services should have a reasonable run.
In 20 years time, the two baby families come through, so one would think, there will be a reversal later.
That is unless there is further consolidation in the sector.
Just my opinion.
I dont hold
 
Knobby22 said:
My pick. Big rise today and an obvious winner if the virus hits our shores.
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I'm hoping to lose this month. I am hopeful we will control the virus here. I am pretty sure Japan and South will control their outbreaks. China is winning.

The middle East is difficult. Asia is an unknown. Europe is acting strongly.
The USA is my main concern due to them being behind the curve due to cutbacks.
If they muckup then continental America will follow, it already has a hold unfortunately, this will be the headlines in the coming week.

I don't own.
 
The
Knobby22 said:
I'm hoping to lose this month. I am hopeful we will control the virus here. I am pretty sure Japan and South will control their outbreaks. China is winning.

The middle East is difficult. Asia is an unknown. Europe is acting strongly.
The USA is my main concern due to them being behind the curve due to cutbacks.
If they muckup then continental America will follow, it already has a hold unfortunately, this will be the headlines in the coming week.

I don't own.
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Way i see it, there is no half measure, either it is controlled and eliminated every where or we all get it at some stage even if it is controlled fully eliminated even from China South Korea here etc
if it is in Iran them Middle East then back to Europe with their open policy no control on migrants with Italy being a passage point
So any win will be short lived and our hope is on both no worsening mutation and a treatment with good outcomes..
In either case IVC is imho a good buy it might even fall with the market so get more ..
I own
 
qldfrog said:
The ...way i see it, there is no half measure, either it is controlled and eliminated every where or we all get it at some stage

In either case IVC is imho a good buy it might even fall with the market so get more ..
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Invocare held out for a month, with the first element of the business model looking good

Social gathering restrictions, unfortunately, will rob the company from holding any 'bells and whistles' full package funerals. They're trying for livestreaming (!) and webcasts, but it won't be as good.

Came out with an Announcement today saying they're impacted, with significant disruption to the trading environment
upload_2020-3-25_12-3-6.png
 
Not a business that I would invest in. Don't feel comfortable 'funerals' being an ASX listed business, when most tout how family centred the funeral directors are. And they originally were, before being corralled together into listed businesses. Hey its just me, I think it a little yuk.
Yes they have a 'growing customer' base and I think they charge whatever they like, as mourning families are easy prey. I mean the family are less likely to quibble, as they get sold up on costly little extras.
Well anyway they would praying for an end for this Caronavirus as it is too quickly 'eating into' their market potential $ as they get flooded with 'clients' (hopefully NOT) and with regulations of less than 10 allowed at funerals, families wont see the need to be upsold with bidding their loved ones farewell.
Dona Ferentes said:
Social gathering restrictions, unfortunately, will rob the company from holding any 'bells and whistles' full package funerals. They're trying for livestreaming (!) and webcasts, but it won't be as good.
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Livestreaming and webcasts, More yeeewwww, but hey this will be something to add on an ongoing basis post the virus - and crowd restrictions.
 
Agree with your sentiment regarding this business. Crowd restrictions at funerals now lifted (4sqm rule).This news should allow them to reap a little more. However, corona virus lock downs have caused a significant reduction in flu hospital admissions and therefore lowered the number of deaths caused by flu. No doubt IVC will mention this in their next earnings report.

The long term chart shows a pretty strong support level at $10. As price is close to this level the RR seems pretty good here but IMO it's a longer term hold rather than a short term trade.
 
peter2 said:
Agree with your sentiment regarding this business. Crowd restrictions at funerals now lifted (4sqm rule).This news should allow them to reap a little more. However, corona virus lock downs have caused a significant reduction in flu hospital admissions and therefore lowered the number of deaths caused by flu. No doubt IVC will mention this in their next earnings report.

The long term chart shows a pretty strong support level at $10. As price is close to this level the RR seems pretty good here but IMO it's a longer term hold rather than a short term trade.
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FWIW, when the west was still living with the fairies, January, I exited a lot of my positions but put some into IVC;
it did not collapse true but I expected a jump up, not a so so result; ultimately exited with a loss,
whether you expect a second wave or not, do not into IVC based on your expectations of increase number of deaths.no reasons for this to work in the second round..just my opinion otherwise as @peter2 mentioned, as an investment, but not trading
 
IVC has been in my reversal watch list for quite a while. It hasn't reversed yet. The funeral industry have taken quite a hit with the COVID pandemic. Lock downs have drastically reduced the number of deaths attributed to the flu. What's worse for the industry is the restrictions on number of attendees at the services.

IVC had a recent capital raising at a price of 10.40. All these new buyers are now underwater and the restricted numbers at funerals remain.

ivc300820.PNG

One day, but not yet.
 
Are we there yet? Restrictions are easing throughout Aust. I'm watching both IVC and PFP for signs of demand.
 
Upward price movement has started. Price back at the recent spp price so those buyers will be feeling better.
Initial target is up near old highs ~ 11.50. Further COVID restrictions would not be good for this company.
cf. PFP should soon move also but has much lower daily traded volume. Price movement may be jerky.

ivc0710.PNG
 
So_Cynical said:
The big fall in late 2018 was all about the low death rates from the flu, COVID-19 will eventually
lead to a higher death rate, more funerals, this winter or the next it's unstoppable, a certainty.
Click to expand...

Got that wrong, did not consider how the COVID restrictions would lead to a near total 100% drop in winter flu deaths, and never figured that the authorities across Australia would do so well in COVID suppression, 2020 is likely to be a record low year for respiratory deaths.
 
I am bearish on Funeral stocks.

I have been given an undertaking by some friends that my wishes to be buried in a cardboard box will be respected. Many like me will be keeping it simple. Much of the profit in funerals is on fluff, the flowers, the dutiful bearers, the limo, the casket and the reverend.

A process that has purposely been made opaque, as were taxis, will be Uberised imo.

For those interested, the Good Guys and Bunnings have the best boxes, around the back, and they are free. One then just needs to ensure that they qualify all the health requirements, staples, absorbents, linings, airtight, no worm killing chemicals etc. etc. and sturdy enough to prevent some dawg from digging one up.

Then again I may be wrong. I'll be dead so it will not matter.

Oh, and Beethoven's 9th with full orchestra and choir, and some homeless and indigent to be paid hopefully intoxicated, stoned and generally troublesome can make it up to a decently priced and enjoyable funeral. A good way to go.

gg
 
It never got to a price that looked really cheap with a sufficient margin of safety for me, with the dilution its probably a bit over what i would see the range of value as being. Its the same problem I have with all the businesses that were badly impacted, WEB, FLT, SYD, none of them ever got to a price that was compelling for me - other than maybe about 1 week in March!

I think the issue for me is that so much was grossly overpriced before all of this, so they still look expensive now. Also the CR dilutions have an impact.

Thats alright though, I am doing very well at the moment with my portfolios, so its not like i am hunting for places to put capital.
 
Funeral homes are creepy and predatory. We should be allowed to bury (or cremate) our loved ones in the garden. These people are grubs.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I am bearish on Funeral stocks.

I have been given an undertaking (ha) by some friends that my wishes to be buried in a cardboard box will be respected. Many like me will be keeping it simple. Much of the profit in funerals is on fluff, the flowers, the dutiful bearers, the limo, the casket and the reverend.

A process that has purposely been made opaque, as were taxis, will be Uberised imo.

Oh, and Beethoven's 9th (played backwards ... decomposing?) with full orchestra and choir, and some homeless and indigent to be paid hopefully intoxicated, stoned and generally troublesome can make it up to a decently priced and enjoyable funeral
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I've always thought that this situation belongs to the Do Something school of Family Disputes Under Pressure. No one questions anything, especially the extras. Market power (Like accessories at hospital discharge time).

So, PE 10 and hope the demographic trend doesn't shift.
 
Posted this in Potential Breakout Alert 2 weeks ago.
Finally IVC made it’s move today.

Lets see whether it will go up higher long term, obviously depends on Dow Jones movement.





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