It's so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

[Pommiegranite]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Can anyone tell me how accurate US stock futures actually are?

I'm assuming they become less accurate the further into the future of the day they are trying to predict..i.e more accurate predicting the open than the close.

Would me nice not to have to wake up early to see how the Dow performed.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Can anyone tell me how accurate US stock futures actually are?

I'm assuming they become less accurate the further into the future of the day they are trying to predict..i.e more accurate predicting the open than the close.

Would me nice not to have to wake up early to see how the Dow performed.

With the possible exception of treasuries, futures do no predict prices at all, they reflect the cash price plus or minus factors such as cost of carry, forward demand vs current demand etc.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

With the possible exception of treasuries, futures do no predict prices at all, they reflect the cash price plus or minus factors such as cost of carry, forward demand vs current demand etc.

Thanks WayneL,

So the headline on http://www.marketwatch.com/ should be in a smaller font size?

 

[CanOz]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

With the possible exception of treasuries, futures do no predict prices at all, they reflect the cash price plus or minus factors such as cost of carry, forward demand vs current demand etc.

Generally though Wayne, wouldn't you agree that index futures usually indicate where the index will open.

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Thanks WayneL,

So the headline on http://www.marketwatch.com/ should be in a smaller font size?

The futures in the premarket will reflect

A/ what's happening in Europe
B/ whats happening in after hours trading of stocks

It is still responding rather than predicting.

****Re marketwatch; Journalists are muppets

 

[wayneL]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Generally though Wayne, wouldn't you agree that index futures usually indicate where the index will open.

Cheers,

Only immediately before, by which time aftermarket is in full swing and bid/asks are entered ready for the open of stocks not already trading.

Still resposive to what IS happening, and not predictive.

 

[CanOz]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

****Re marketwatch; Journalists are muppets

CNBC is much worse IMO...i used to honestly think that most news moved markets...its actually the opposite in most cases. Most news outlets seem to wrap stories around the price action of the particular market...sure large stories move sentiment and markets, but most minor news is irrelevant or already priced into markets.

It just annoys me that every little bounce or rally, dip or slide is always the result of news rather than technicals...what a bunch of crap.

Cheers,

 

[explod]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Of late I have sensed a vibe of pessimism in the news, here on ASF and in fact this thought has made me realise that there is a lot of anger and picking between posters here on ASF of late too. Not just the pollie stuff either.

Nearly started a new thread but on musing dusted this one off and had a read through (worth the little trip). It covers the period leading up to the 2008 crash so there was a feeling of unease back then.

I have my ideas and think we are close to a brink again, and much bigger. This could be one of the underlying causes.

Many here know me as a bit of a conspiracy theory doom and gloomer so I will try to restrain myself to see what others think. And I would like to lift the spirits of our bit of cyberspace here too. It is lonely when there is no honest (not hating) fighting around the place. He he., no names no pack drill .

 

[YMI]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

I think it was 2009 when I heard the story about someone who had predicted the 2008 financial crisis correctly, apparently before it happened. Can’t remember his name but you would expect an economist, far wrong his field was psychology. But he also predicted another financial crisis, much worse and much longer than the 2008 one. He assumed it would start in 2012 and reach its worst point in 2015.

I found this interesting because 2009 looked more like recovery than a new financial crisis but soon after it seemed as if increasingly news were reporting about enormous national debt of certain European countries and then USA. Since then it has become even worse and doesn’t matter how hard they try to save money, the debt continues to rise and there is no prospect of considerable decrease.

Not sure if that will actually happen in 2015 but I think if there is another financial crisis, there is a chance that it’s not caused by an outbreak of a war or bankruptcy of a bank but maybe by national debt of some bigger countries.

 

[pixel]

Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

I think it was 2009 when I heard the story about someone who had predicted the 2008 financial crisis correctly, apparently before it happened. Can’t remember his name but you would expect an economist, far wrong his field was psychology. But he also predicted another financial crisis, much worse and much longer than the 2008 one. He assumed it would start in 2012 and reach its worst point in 2015.

I found this interesting because 2009 looked more like recovery than a new financial crisis but soon after it seemed as if increasingly news were reporting about enormous national debt of certain European countries and then USA. Since then it has become even worse and doesn’t matter how hard they try to save money, the debt continues to rise and there is no prospect of considerable decrease.

Not sure if that will actually happen in 2015 but I think if there is another financial crisis, there is a chance that it’s not caused by an outbreak of a war or bankruptcy of a bank but maybe by national debt of some bigger countries.

One didn't have to be an economist, nor a psychologist, to get a forewarning of the 2008 crisis. Even in Forums like this one, analysts voiced concerns as early as mid-2007 about an imminent and severe correction. If you can still find posts by kahuna1, he arrived at the conclusion from his observation of global markets. I didn't know him then, but my charts of the XJO and Overseas indices suggested a sufficiently strong chance of the downturn, that, by October 2007, I was close to 90% in cash. Throughout 2008, I traded by Bear Market rules, and from March 2009 was back to 90% invested.

The current chart is starting to resemble its equivalent in early to mid-2007; consequently, I'm reducing my market exposure until the picture becomes clearer.

Monthly chart with MACD Divergences;


Weekly chart warned early in 2007, starts showing a similar MACD Divergence now:

 

[sptrawler]

There is fear out there, people feel wedged between a rock and a hard place.

The U.S is devaluing their currency, with the result that their manugactured goods become more competitive. Just check out the increase of sales in something like the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

http://www.southport.cjddealer.com....ents/jeep_grand_cherokee_breaks_sales_records

http://wot.motortrend.com/jeep-sets...d-by-grand-cherokee-312547.html#axzz2QUADp2nN

This along with cheap money is driving the U.S markets, understandably.
What is happening here? Manufacturing collapsing, retail collapsing, mining slowing, this causes insecurity.
Add to that increasing taxes, lowering interest rates, reduncancies and closures, the list just about covers all Australians.

So what does the government do? Rather than lead with a calm reasurring hand, making small sensible adjustments in a controlled manner, they jump from pillar to post abusing all and sundry.

Now we have a scenario where the currency is too high, the only tool at the RBA's disposal is interest rates.
So as they drop them, nervous investors jump into dividend shares and housing, which is already overpriced.

So how can it not end in tears?
The government, instead of changing taxes that assist in tackling the underlying issues e.g negative gearing, they introduce new taxes to cause further mayhem. New grandiose ideas, that everyone knows are going to compound the problem and further increase taxes.
Where is the money for all these new 'clean' technology jobs, the carbon tax was going to bring about.

So is fear gripping me? the short answer yes.

 

[MrBurns]

I've been waiting for a real estate crash for 5 years but things just keep churning along.

Europe and everything else that's wrong with the system doesn't stop people wanting to invest so I really think things will just continue on as they have been.

At some point there will be a panic and markets will drop but they'll bounce back because people have to put their money somewhere.

 

[VSntchr]

In 2008 a lot of stocks looked pretty expensive, whereas now - many stocks seem to be about fair-value...some expensive, some still cheap.

This doesn't mean we can't still crash though! Just worth considering

 

[skc]

Back in 2007/2008, the financials crashed hard yet the materials managed to stay high for some time. For instance, CBA's top was ~Nov 2007, while FMG peaked in Jul 2008.

Now we are seeing the exact opposite. CBA is at all time high, while FMG just barely above 4 year low.

The question of course is which way will it break...

 

[chops_a_must]

Back in 2007/2008, the financials crashed hard yet the materials managed to stay high for some time. For instance, CBA's top was ~Nov 2007, while FMG peaked in Jul 2008.

Now we are seeing the exact opposite. CBA is at all time high, while FMG just barely above 4 year low.

The question of course is which way will it break...

The problem is, people are still in love with their miners.

So many people are trying to buy falling knives. We've got a little way to go yet, but people need to adjust their thinking, and have a look at some different areas of the market.

There are great stocks, with great charts out there. And on my watchlist, not too many have dropped.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

For no apparent reason, a fairly big sell off today. In the news tonight, the market commentators will say "the Ords was off 70 points because of factor X", but this is never the real truth. The truth is that sentiment changed and no one knows why, so we try to come up with an explanation. If economic news caused markets to move, then we would not see negative news getting shrugged off in bouyant times. Nor would we see positive economic news get ignored when sentiment is low. But both these things do happen - we've all seen it. Sentiment changes how we perceive the very same data.

Truthful market commentary would say "The market was down 70 points today because there was more fear, and we don't know why, but there was. Sentiment changed. Now it's over to Jim with all of today's weather. Jim what have you got for us this week?"

 

[skc]

For no apparent reason, a fairly big sell off today.

Commodities got canned Friday night leading to a pretty weak open. The big Chinese data miss drove the market down another ~50pts since noon.

So there're some pretty apparant reasons.

 

[Trembling Hand]

For no apparent reason, a fairly big sell off today. In the news tonight, the market commentators will say "the Ords was off 70 points because of factor X", but this is never the real truth. The truth is that sentiment changed and no one knows why, so we try to come up with an explanation. If economic news caused markets to move, then we would not see negative news getting shrugged off in bouyant times. Nor would we see positive economic news get ignored when sentiment is low. But both these things do happen - we've all seen it. Sentiment changes how we perceive the very same data.

Truthful market commentary would say "The market was down 70 points today because there was more fear, and we don't know why, but there was. Sentiment changed. Now it's over to Jim with all of today's weather. Jim what have you got for us this week?"

Clueless,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...less-than-estimated-7-7-in-first-quarter.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...founder-s-birth-amid-heightened-tensions.html

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Commodities got canned Friday night leading to a pretty weak open. The big Chinese data miss drove the market down another ~50pts since noon.

So there're some pretty apparant reasons.

Why did commodities get canned Friday night? No one knows.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Why did commodities get canned Friday night? No one knows.

You know how you like to draw your random lines all over charts. Well this time a real important one got taken out.

Now add in China and you have a real explainable reason why all the markets got smashed 2 seconds after the news.