Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

It's so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Jump to new
Y

yonnie

Joined
5 May 2007
Posts
511
Reactions
0
hi folks,

did you see all the red on your screen last Friday and likely more to come on Monday?

well it aint that bad.

US GDP for the last quarter grew fastest for the year
US inflation very benign
US consumer sentiment better than expected and up on the month before despite the housing market and the sub-prime mortgage issues
underlying fundamentals of the global economy are strong.

so dont fret, its just a little hiccup.:)
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

my watchlists were redder than a whale's periods

its a bit unnerving knowing that the XAO tends to follow the DJI quite closely

but the markets been so bullish lately, i think there'll be alot of amateur investors out there at the moment also expecting a minor correction and jumping in when the prices are cheap.

we may bounce back from this very strong
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Could be time to wheel the old meth lab out, to make a bit of money
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

motorway said:
Nope :)
Whats that knocking sound I hear?motorway
Click to expand...

do you agree with that motorway?

I would think if demand for Chinese produce drops from the US/Europe/Japan, the building boom in China would grind to a stand still.
Its not as if China is isolated from the rest of the world and will build on regardless.:cool:
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

chicken8 said:
my watchlists were redder than a whale's periods
Click to expand...

Ouch. that was gory - the whale, i mean. spare me the details!

motorway said:
Nope :)

Whats that knocking sound I hear ?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/27/cnhamb127.xml


motorway
Click to expand...

good read. Yes, the Rio Tinto - Alcan takeover bodes well for the future of Australian resources. $44billion, at 3x higher than the nearest competing bid, is a very high price to pay if you're not expecting the resources boom to last.
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

aaronphetamine said:
Could be time to wheel the old meth lab out, to make a bit of money
Click to expand...


We don`t need that garbage "made available" to the youths of Australia.

Wake up to yourself .
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Of course fear is gripping the market... for good reason.

Business as usual for swingers though. ;)
 

Attachments

  • humour.gif
    humour.gif
    124.4 KB · Views: 507
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Prices 'will stay sky-high for years'
Click to expand...
Hmm...

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.
Click to expand...
Dr. Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, one of the most important US economists of his day, speaking on October 17, 1929, a few weeks before the Great Crash.

GP
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Stop_the_clock said:
Yes I have my tomato crops:rolleyes: ready to plant...only 1 problem water restrictions;)
Click to expand...

For some reason STC, when you say tomato crops I don't think you actually mean tomato crops...do you?
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

yonnie said:
hi folks,

did you see all the red on your screen last Friday and likely more to come on Monday?

well it aint that bad.

US GDP for the last quarter grew fastest for the year
Click to expand...

Since there has only been 2 quarters this year and the first one grew a paltry 0.7% not such an amazing feat.

The irony is that whilst the US economy grew at a robust 3.4% in 2Q07 the underlying economy continued to deteriorate.

Consumer spending increased 1.3% in the second quarter after a 3.7% gain in the first. Since the US economy is 2/3 driven by the consumer I'd say this is of major concern. Retail numbers in June were anemic. The consumer is tapped out and feeling the pinch of higher food and energy prices.

US inflation very benign
Click to expand...

Benign if you subscribe to the school that measures inflation ex-inflation. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at an 1.4% annual rate in the second quarter from 2.4% in the first pushing the yearly gain down to 2.0% - the top end of the Fed's perceived "comfort zone".

However headline inflation accelerated to a 4.3% annual rate, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 1990.

US consumer sentiment better than expected and up on the month before despite the housing market and the sub-prime mortgage issues
Click to expand...

My bet is the consumer won't have such a rosy picture of things next month.

underlying fundamentals of the global economy are strong.
Click to expand...

Any weakness in US domestic demand tends to show up in other major economies 6-9 months later. Continued deterioration in the US economy will have repercussions for the rest of the world.
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

thank you dhukka for your contribution.

so you think we all should be very fearful if long only?:cool:
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

dhukka said:
Since there has only been 2 quarters this year and the first one grew a paltry 0.7% not such an amazing feat.

The irony is that whilst the US economy grew at a robust 3.4% in 2Q07 the underlying economy continued to deteriorate.

Consumer spending increased 1.3% in the second quarter after a 3.7% gain in the first. Since the US economy is 2/3 driven by the consumer I'd say this is of major concern. Retail numbers in June were anemic. The consumer is tapped out and feeling the pinch of higher food and energy prices.



Benign if you subscribe to the school that measures inflation ex-inflation. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at an 1.4% annual rate in the second quarter from 2.4% in the first pushing the yearly gain down to 2.0% - the top end of the Fed's perceived "comfort zone".

However headline inflation accelerated to a 4.3% annual rate, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 1990.



My bet is the consumer won't have such a rosy picture of things next month.



Any weakness in US domestic demand tends to show up in other major economies 6-9 months later. Continued deterioration in the US economy will have repercussions for the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

How about the fact that there is low unemployment levels in the US? Usually high unemployment is a precursor to a depression.

My only fears are, now that I hold 50% cash, I may jump back in too early.
 
Re: Its so quiet here - is fear gripping you?

Pommiegranite said:
How about the fact that there is low unemployment levels in the US? Usually high unemployment is a precursor to a depression.

My only fears are, now that I hold 50% cash, I may jump back in too early.
Click to expand...

Pommiegranite,

Official numbers have growth in non-farm payrolls this year averaging 145,000 a month down from the 2006 monthly average pace of 189,000.

Remember that the US needs to add 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep pace with population growth.

Consider this from Hoisington Investment Management

"Non-farm household employment (population and payroll-adjusted by the BLS), an alternative jobs measure that historically has been more accurate at cyclical turning points, expanded 45,000 per month this year compared to a 235,000 average monthly gain in 2006, an 80% decline."


"Further, employment at temporary help agencies, which has led employment in the past, declined this year"

If you read the article there is a chart that shows temp employment is a reasonable leading indicator of employment.

The employment picture is far from dire but I'm skeptical of the official numbers that paint a rosy picture.
 

Similar threads

bigdog
Dump Trump
9 10 11
Replies
214
Views
19K
wayneL
wayneL
prawn_86
Bush Family Hedge Fund in Trouble
Replies
5
Views
5K
gfresh
G
S
Global economist David Hale on the economy, recession, and political assassination
Replies
1
Views
5K
lakemac
lakemac
Top