It was tough placing my buy orders this morning

[frugal.rock]

You know f.rock...i've been posting everyday on this thread about my experience trading through this market and for the most part you (and @InvestoBoy) have been completely silent. Now that I admit defeat you decide it is time to post. Don't take me the wrong way, but I haven't seen you posting on ASF about your day-to-day experiences of trading through this market so I question the value of your comments. I guess it is pretty easy to come out and throw rocks when you have absolutely no skin in the game and I suspect you have just been sitting on the sidelines waiting for me to admit defeat so you could chime in on my thread. I'm a firm believer in the saying that if you don't have anything constructive to say then don't say anything at all

No rocks were thrown.
No skin in the game? What is this game you mention?
"I suspect you have just been sitting on the sidelines waiting for me to admit defeat so you could chime in on my thread."
Really?

F.Rock

 

[aus_trader]

I'll probably buy some AX1 at some stage. I just like the call of those birds.

It's still falling hard along with markets around the world. I'll wait for things to settle down a bit before buying back into equities I think. AX1's yield is going up as it freefalls though

 

[MovingAverage]

Hey Moving average .
-8% is OK
Perhaps you need to add a "fuse" to your strategy.
In unusual downturns I reckon you need an external indicator to help to tell you when to stop going long.
Going against a strong downturn in the overall equity market will only end in losses.
You can also consider going short using CFDs. or try Bear ETFs .or gold and Silver stocks.
An indicator I have considered is https://www.marketindex.com.au/
the expected volatility indicator. No Long trades in the red zone. (except Gold , bear ETF)
BTW. First time on ASF in months.so I have only just read this thread.

Agree. I’ve been trading three separate systems for many years. Two are trend following systems (one daily and the other weekly) and one is a swing system. Most of my 8% DD has come from the trend systems (particularly the weekly) but the swing system is marginally up (around 1.5%--no DD at the time I overrode it). The trend systems use a hybrid market filter so no long position setups in market down trend and both use trailing stops. Swing system doesn't use market filter and does have the safety net of a stop loss.

The real mental challenge for me has not been the performance of the swing system which this thread has been about, but my trend systems. Watching their performance has been a challenge. One of the things that bugs me about my trend systems is they don't involve intraday stops--they are EOD. Most of my DD has come from my weekly system where stops (exits) are only done at the end of the week and in this market where we are seeing 5% - 10% drops each day it makes for a very long week to look for exits on Fridays.

One of the things I'm going to explore is the addition of an intraday stop on my systems to address major downturns like we are experiencing now. I'll run some simulations over the weekend and see how it goes.

I've been checking that volatility indicator on market index for a while now and I like it. Haven't thought about including it in a system but it's definitely worth considering

 

[qldfrog]

Most of my DD has come from my weekly system where stops (exits) are only done at the end of the week and in this market where we are seeing 5% - 10% drops each day it makes for a very long week to look for exits on Fridays.

Sharing the pain and i still have 50pc invested in these 2 weekly systems which are in free fall...

 

[MovingAverage]

Sharing the pain and i still have 50pc invested in these 2 weekly systems which are in free fall...

I don't know how you are holding those positions in your weekly...mine has been doing my head in so overrode it despite tightening my stops last week--I couldn't wait until today for the exit signals that I knew were coming anyway.

 

[barney]

[COLOR=#000000]Butt out time for me... wonder what barney is up to?[/COLOR]

ps sorry about the type … couldn't fix it

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Bit like the movie Frugal ….. "No Country for Old Men" Bear moves are "No Country for a Spec Trader"[/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Like anyone whose been in the market while this has hit I'm well down but hopefully come out the other side with half a shirt and a couple of cans of baked beans![/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Its a tough market unless you have been shorting Index's …… but I'd be extra careful trying to do that today ….. should be a Friday bounce in the Futs given the sell off again last night. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Low profile for me at the moment while I apply extra band aids ( Good luck all.)[/FONT][/COLOR]


[ATTACH=full]101282[/ATTACH]

 

[Knobby22]

hmmm...while I appreciate your comforting words you seem to be suggesting I’ve blown up my my capital and that I’m looking for someone to blame. Nothing could be further from the truth...in total I’m at about 8% DD. My frustration comes from some recent posts from folks sitting on the sidelines who’ve been happy to sit on the side but now feel the need to comment given I’ve admitted the mental fortitude required to continue trading in this market is too much so I’ve closed all my positions. Thanks for the YouTube clip but I’ve got the DVD box set

I wouldn't worry. I bet you many are not actually on the sidelines and have been frozen into inaction.
I, as a fundamental investor sold everything 3 weeks ago but held on to 15% of my shares, I do not know why in hindsight.

I am absolutely sure you are doing better than most and you have got a good experience to remember (and learn from) also.

 

[MovingAverage]

I am absolutely sure you are doing better than most and you have got a good experience to remember (and learn from) also.

I've just been looking at the performance of my three portfolios and I've weathered the storm reasonably well given the broader market heavy sell off. My daily trend system is down 3.57% since the start of the year and down 1.44% since the start of this month. My weekly trend system is down 7.68% since the start of the year and down 3.15% since the start of this month. My swing system is up around 3% since the start of the year and down around 5% since the start of this month. Overall I'm down around 8% since the start of the year across all three portfolios.

 

[Skate]

I've just been looking at the performance of my three portfolios and I've weathered the storm reasonably well given the broader market heavy sell off. My daily trend system is down 3.57% since the start of the year and down 1.44% since the start of this month. My weekly trend system is down 7.68% since the start of the year and down 3.15% since the start of this month. My swing system is up around 3% since the start of the year and down around 5% since the start of this month. Overall I'm down around 8% since the start of the year across all three portfolios.

@MovingAverage - well done !!

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

@MovingAverage - well done !!
View attachment 101296
Skate.

You know in isolation those numbers aren't bad and under normal circumstances wouldn't alarm me as they are well within the system bounds...but with all the negative news spinning around my head got the better of me. I only started trading on the tail-end of the 08 crash so this is the first major downturn I've traded through. It's one thing simulating a system through a crash but it's a whole other thing trying to live trade through this on a day to day basis.

 

[MovingAverage]

Opening up AB everyday to see this really tested me

 

[frugal.rock]

Am envious of your position.
As said, well done!
You or your systems have managed minimal DD and you are now in a position where you can exploit the situation, not if it picks up again, but when it does.
After contemplating your withdrawal, have also decided to let the portfolio sit inactive for a while, active trading is also doing my head in, not so much from the DD (which has increased today...) but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.
Cheers, no schadenfreude on my part to anyone.

F.Rock

 

[MovingAverage]

Am envious of your position.
As said, well done!
You or your systems have managed minimal DD and you are now in a position where you can exploit the situation, not if it picks up again, but when it does.
After contemplating your withdrawal, have also decided to let the portfolio sit inactive for a while, active trading is also doing my head in, not so much from the DD (which has increased today...) but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.
Cheers, no schadenfreude on my part to anyone.

F.Rock

Crazy times indeed. We all need to sleep at night so we all need to do what allows us to sleep. I can’t deal with the volatility...can’t believe how the market rallied this afternoon, I guess the bargain hunters are coming out. Must admit I was expecting some issues with my broker this past week but haven’t experienced too many problems, but I did find the price discovery exercise yesterday on a few of my sells very frustrating.

 

[frugal.rock]

A you tube doco I saw on Quant/ Algorithm trading said some well known large brokers physically position their trading computer network as close as possible to the exchanges in order to gain those milliseconds of advantage... most important for the algos.
With days like these, that advantage is priceless.
I put a sell order in at 4:07pm today... it sat on "processing" status forever.
It missed the close and is sitting on manual... The processing status is usually a second or two...
Bottom feeders such as myself suffer despite being classed as a "high value customer" by broker, that just means I will change brokers next week.
Goodbye Westpac, hello Selfwealth.
F.Rock

 

[MovingAverage]

A you tube doco I saw on Quant/ Algorithm trading said some well known large brokers physically position their trading computer network as close as possible to the exchanges in order to gain those milliseconds of advantage... most important for the algos.
With days like these, that advantage is priceless.
I put a sell order in at 4:07pm today... it sat on "processing" status forever.
It missed the close and is sitting on manual... The processing status is usually a second or two...
Bottom feeders such as myself suffer despite being classed as a "high value customer" by broker, that just means I will change brokers next week.
Goodbye Westpac, hello Selfwealth.
F.Rock

They sure do...do some research on a guy call Josh Levine, absolutely amazing back story and history on US high frequency trading. Not so relevant in Australia but Josh's history really gives you some insight into the amazing world of US high frequency trading. There's a book called "Dark Pools", great read.

 

[aus_trader]

but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.

This is exactly what I experienced, near frozen unresponsive trading platform, would've been stranded/killed if I needed to liquidate or cover my downside in a hurry such as in short-term or day-trading !

 

[frugal.rock]

Found it, wanted to watch it again.
While it's generalised, am sure most would get something out of it.
Cheers.

 

[sptrawler]

You know in isolation those numbers aren't bad and under normal circumstances wouldn't alarm me as they are well within the system bounds...but with all the negative news spinning around my head got the better of me. I only started trading on the tail-end of the 08 crash so this is the first major downturn I've traded through. It's one thing simulating a system through a crash but it's a whole other thing trying to live trade through this on a day to day basis.

Next time you will be a lot better prepared, there is no way you can learn this experience, other than living it.
I smile when younger people say, you were lucky you lived through the 1987 stock market crash and made a bomb, no one makes a bomb living through it the first time.
The second time you, have half your money on the side, so that you can nibble away and add to your income stocks.
Being all in, is what catches people, when these once in a lifetime events happen every 10 years.

 

[frugal.rock]

[QUOTE="sptrawler, post: 1061254, member: 28038]
Being all in, is what catches people, when these once in a lifetime events happen every 10 years.[/QUOTE]
These lifetime events... that happen every 10 year's... hahaha, will I be ready for the next one? You betcha, unless I become an unfashionable statistic meanwhile...
F.Rock

 

[aus_trader]

This volatility is setting records, another one as 'the largest one day turnaround' to go down in history on this spooky Friday the 13th



Does anyone have a crystal ball to look into the near future to see if this is the bottom or a short-term bounce ?