I don't feel any real connection......nor an affinity with the share market in general'' If there is a collapse in the markets you will see there is a very powerful connection with the markets and LICs/ ETFs!
"I don't feel any real connection......nor an affinity with the share market in general'' If there is a collapse in the markets you will see there is a very powerful connection with the markets and LICs/ ETFs!
actually i use instinct , a very loose theory based on Elliot Waves and spent many years mixing with race-course urgers , con-men , sales-people of various types , bearing in mind short-term market movement is prone to emotions , manipulations , information distortion ( liars , cheats , influencers )Post #75 is an excellent example of:
To implement the concepts in Post #75 would require a mandatory tarot reading followed by a deep study of chicken entrails,then a reading of the latest horoscopes in the local newspaper and knowledge of what will occur at indeterminate future point.
Of course you are entitled to your opinion but what did I do when "corrections" occurred?
Hint: I haven't sold any shares apart from swapping STW for VAS when it listed.
that's because you're looking at it thru the lens of a trader. switching to monthly candles and zooming out to 20+ years will give a better reflection of what the long term buy & hold investor sees. when viewed thru that lens, not even 2 years on and the COVID crash of feb/mar 2020 is already starting to resemble mere noise in the greater scheme of things for the likes of IVV. it is still prominent for VAS, VGS etc., but in a few years time there's a good chance it'll just be noise on the monthly candle charts of VAS/VGS as well.
so far ( considering i have only been in the market since very late 2010 ) the cash reserves accumulate because of take-over deals , sensible profit-taking , and not rushing in to deploy the excess cash , so the 'corrections ' i have been through are just shopping opportunities ( not forced or panic-selling ) .. now of course getting in early on a solid investment is a very good reason to resist sellingOf course you are entitled to your opinion but what did I do when "corrections" occurred?
Hint: I haven't sold any shares apart from swapping STW for VAS when it listed.
yes that is something that concerns me .. my strategy has not been CRASH-tested , sure March 2020 felt like it at the time , but the K-shaped recovery belies that , i am trying for an income source/supplement from the investment portfolio rather than capital gains , but 2020 showed me some uncomfortable lessons , which might easily repeat in a real crashI am not talking about a correction, I am talking about a collapse as happened in '07. Not until this year, fourteen years later has the fund got back to its original high.
I read something fairly recently, don't know who worked it out, but it resonated with me. They did a calculation of capital appreciation over a given period of time using an index and then they calculated that if you exited the markets at near highs and re-entered at near lows the $value difference between a buy and hold was astonishing. That has totally altered my perception of the market. Having said that, until now I have been time poor, recently I have retired I can spend the time to focus more on the market. Others may not have that luxury.
I am not talking about a correction, I am talking about a collapse as happened in '07. Not until this year, fourteen years later has the fund got back to its original high.
That is why XNT should be your reference, and not the asx 200 and XAO, and then for these returns to be meaningful, they should also be cpi indexed..and here i draw a blank as i am not aware of any available xnt cpi indexed.Yep - on a price basis if that is what you mean.
However, when I have been informed of that, the people who have said it to me overlook this aspect. It's as if they don't believe dividends/distributions exist.
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Day on day info.
S&P/ASX 200 Accumulated Historical Rates - Investing.com AU
Access free historical data for the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulated.au.investing.com
yes that is absolutely correct, but it's also a massive IF. most people who try to do that will likely end up buying at the top when they get greedy/FOMO and selling down the bottom when they panic. if you're one of the few who can reliably enter and exit at the optimal time, kudos to you.
but i still think most people (including me) are better off just trying to blot out the noise and holding long term, rather than attempting to pick tops and bottoms, getting it wrong, missing out on long term gains due to "waiting for the bottom", or worse still, losing money by buying at the top and selling at the bottom, then vowing to never touch the stockmarket again and leaving all their money parked in cash.
my post was mainly to point that out to the OP, since i think they mentioned they were new to investing in stocks? but your point is valid and if they want to try their hand at picking tops and bottoms, they are of course free to do so.
The crashes recovered a lot quicker than the years you state when you factor in dividends, especially if those dividends are being reinvested.Let me just start by saying, the only way I believe anyone should be involved in the markets is by feeling comfortable about one's investment/trading style. So at no time would I ever criticize anyone's choice of participation or how they approach their investments. It is a very personal choice and a person needs to be able to sleep soundly at night.
I am not talking about a correction, I am talking about a collapse as happened in '07. Not until this year, fourteen years later has the fund got back to its original high.
I always classed myself as a long term investor and monthly charts were always my starting point. However, I did draw the line at seeing my capital evaporate and had a certain line or moving average where I would say, enough is enough. I wanted to keep my capital intact. At the time of the '07 collapse, all my exit triggers had slowly moved me out of the market before the collapse. The '87 crash took nine years to recover. The '07 crash took fourteen years to recover, one has to ponder how long the next major crash will take to recover, twenty years? I can truly assure you I will not be alive at that time.
I read something fairly recently, don't know who worked it out, but it resonated with me. They did a calculation of capital appreciation over a given period of time using an index and then they calculated that if you exited the markets at near highs and re-entered at near lows the $value difference between a buy and hold was astonishing. That has totally altered my perception of the market. Having said that, until now I have been time poor, recently I have retired I can spend the time to focus more on the market. Others may not have that luxury.
Now let's look at the long term monthly chart on Log scale and do a quick calculation, there is an astute buy-in after the price has regained from its initial sell-off of $35.37 May 2004, it is held through all the ups and downs until December of 2021 at a price of $68.90.
So we see our capital has almost but not quite doubled in approximately 17 years.
Then if you did those calculations I mentioned, I bet the investment could have done considerably better, particularly if new money was added at every new low buyback.
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if you had put $100k just before the 2007 GFC, it wouldn’t have taken 14 years to return to $100k, because the compounding dividends would have boosted up the number of units you owned every 6 months, so even if it took 14 years for the unit price to recover, you would own more units.
i have found buying at the bottom ( and selling at the top ) often leave me with part-filled orders ( that never fill completely ) leaving the brokerage to take the cream out of the trade , so am happy to buy in a falling market and sell into a rising one ( at pre-selected prices ) getting the deal done at a tolerable price , HOWEVER most are comfortable going WITH the trendyes that is absolutely correct, but it's also a massive IF. most people who try to do that will likely end up buying at the top when they get greedy/FOMO and selling down the bottom when they panic. if you're one of the few who can reliably enter and exit at the optimal time, kudos to you.
but i still think most people (including me) are better off just trying to blot out the noise and holding long term, rather than attempting to pick tops and bottoms, getting it wrong, missing out on long term gains due to "waiting for the bottom", or worse still, losing money by buying at the top and selling at the bottom, then vowing to never touch the stockmarket again and leaving all their money parked in cash.
my post was mainly to point that out to the OP, since i think they mentioned they were new to investing in stocks? but your point is valid and if they want to try their hand at picking tops and bottoms, they are of course free to do so.
That is why XNT should be your reference, and not the asx 200 and XAO, and then for these returns to be meaningful, they should also be cpi indexed..and here i draw a blank as i am not aware of any available xnt cpi indexed.
What the point if comparing rotten apples if both returns are negative.
With a 10% cpi,many US nyse ETF returns are not that flashy and risk included, stockpiling toilet paper might not be that bad an idea?
Now I am seeing stuff about Vanguard doing a lot of shorting good companies and beating them down. They must be making a bomb but they are sure as hell not passing it on to the investors. I also note they say they are selling down because a major investor has left them. I figure if someone wants out who knows a shipload more than me, then who am I to argue. I worry about the ethics of the company and started to talk with him about crypto and then talked about how disenchanted I was with both Blackrock (Ishares) and Vanguard
interesting. do you have links to any articles on the subject? not saying that you're wrong, just want to educate myself a bit, given that i have a significant chunk of my capital invested in both Blackrock and Vanguard ETFs (and am quite satisfied with what i've been getting from them so far). i've never heard of this type of thing before, though i haven't exactly gone specifically searching for it either.
now from what i have READ from Vanguard ( but assume Blackrock is doing also ) is Vanguard are lending out ( client's ) shares to traders ( some of which are short-sellers ) and harvesting some extra cash that way , but IF significant cash is being drawn out of the wholesale funds yes they would also be selling the underlying stocks , as wellNow I am seeing stuff about Vanguard doing a lot of shorting good companies and beating them down. They must be making a bomb but they are sure as hell not passing it on to the investors. I also note they say they are selling down because a major investor has left them.
I have to admit I have not the faintest what the XNT is.
yes that is a more detailed version of what i remember reading ( NOT saying Ann is wrong just that i had not seen the same article as her ) , and why any share-lending activities were NOT the primary reason for my intended exit , ( remember i am a contrarian so Vanguard lending out BKL or PME or other tightly held shares MIGHT give me a buying opportunity , when others are short-selling )Jesu. I vow this will be the last for a long, long time.
First. The PDS for goodness sake and it refers to the underlying funds not the bloody index funds such as VAS. Get an understanding if at all possible.
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Second. Vanguard intends to offer it's own Superannuation fund in Australia. As it is going down that path it isn't going to mange other institutional superannuation funds investments. A couple of those institutional ones have worded the exit (and a number have moved to StreetTraks) as them leaving and not Vanguard dropping them. The politics of business, folks, the politics of business.
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