Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[Smurf1976]

HUH?

While im 100% certain dams will be full from time to time...others wont be full, some far from it.

One of Perth's main dams is Serpentine dam...currently at 27.46% capacity...and hasn't been full in over a decade.

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/D/dams_storagedetail.cfm?id=11453

Warragamba dam in Sydney at 79% capacity and hasn't been full in more than a decade.

http://www.sca.nsw.gov.au/dams-and-water/weekly-storage-and-supply-reports/2012/10-november-2011

Both Perth and Sydney have desal plants yet the dams still cant fill.

If the dams reached 100% full with a desal plant running then someone has made a monumental blunder in system operation since that situation should never arise unless due to a major flood event.

Appropriate storage levels will vary between systems, catchments, individual storages, season, maintenance works and so on. There is, of course, nothing wrong with having storages full per se. But if it was achieved by means of running desal (or in the case of power generation by means of running alternative generation) then that's an undeniable operational blunder.

Dam storage levels are a valid measure of rainfall only where:

1. There is little or no alternative to using water in the dams AND
2. System capability is matched to average demand (for either water or energy as appropriate).

Examples that qualify would be pre-desal water storages for Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and pre-Basslink hydro-electric storages in Tasmania. Most other major storages in Australia are either actively managed to specific targets via the use of alternatives, or are seriously mismatched with underlying demand (ie they will trend to either empty or full with average rainfall).

 

[sptrawler]

Perth has more reliance on ground water than dams, the topography doesn't lend itself to dams. With a narrow coastal plain and a relatively small escarpment the opportunity to dam is limited.
Fortunately there is a large aquifer that supplies the majority of Perths water. Desalination is the only viable source of renewable water untill low cost pumping can bring water from northern areas.

 

[basilio]

Plan B

Lets imagine that somehow the penny dropped and a significant number of these big business leaders come to believe that the climate scientists may actually be right. That the IEA, the CIA, CSIRO etc are giving a legitimate heads up on a catastrophic situation unless we actually control and reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. That the consequences for them, their families and their wealth will be just as devastating as a peasant in India.

Maybe they would focus their financial muscle and industrial capacity on making the mammoth changes required in pure self interest. Forget trying to game the carbon tax. With that change in mindset they/we might do everything in our power to somehow get out of this fix. Basilio

Maybe if you lived in New York you saw the latest analysis of what they are facing with continued cliamte change you might re assess the situation. (Perhaps a similar analaysis for other major cities near the sea would also focus the mind)

From Shore to Forest, Projecting Effects of Climate Change

By LESLIE KAUFMAN
Published: November 16, 2011

....The 600-page report, published on Wednesday, was commissioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, a public-benefit corporation, and is a result of three years of work by scientists at state academic institutions, including Columbia and Cornell Universities and the City University of New York.


.....“In 2020, nearly 96,000 people in the Long Beach area alone may be at risk from sea-level rise,” the report said, referring to just one oceanfront community on the South Shore of Long Island. “By 2080, that number may rise to more than 114,500 people. The value of property at risk in the Long Beach area under this scenario ranges from about $6.4 billion in 2020 to about $7.2 billion in 2080.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/n...t-new-york-state-in-many-ways-study-says.html

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Maybe if you lived in New York you saw the latest analysis of what they are facing with continued cliamte change you might re assess the situation. (Perhaps a similar analaysis for other major cities near the sea would also focus the mind)



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/n...t-new-york-state-in-many-ways-study-says.html

And the relationship of CO2 to Temperatures and sea level rises (in fact a de-accelerating rise) is what exactly?

You should continue your posts in the other thread on climate hysterics - since there is a better alignment of the title and your posts, in addition to the several unanswered questions you have yet to honestly answer.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe if you lived in New York you saw the latest analysis of what they are facing with continued cliamte change you might re assess the situation. (Perhaps a similar analaysis for other major cities near the sea would also focus the mind)



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/n...t-new-york-state-in-many-ways-study-says.html

There is obviously a lack of belief in global warming, by most governments. I don't see a reduction in waterfront developments in any area I have visited.
If the governments believed in the sea level rise scenario they would not be promoting water front developments.
Also steps would be taken to relocate critical infrastructure or at least not add to it and I don't see that happening either.

 

[IFocus]

Yep. When I first moved to Perth the population was about 600,000... now about 1.4 or thereabouts?

Same dams as then.

Sigh......remember this

 

[wayneL]

Sigh......remember this

Yes.

But can you provide a rainfall history chart over the same period?

Dam inflows are affected by others things in addition to rain

 

[drsmith]

Yes.

But can you provide a rainfall history chart over the same period?

Dam inflows are affected by others things in addition to rain

I can only steal someone's thunder.

Something though has been stealing our rain.

 

[Smurf1976]

Meanwhile, oil prices have zoomed past $100 per barrel amidst economic doom and gloom that in past times would have seen the price crash.

Worry about CO2 all you like, but the real problem is finding enough fuel to burn in the first place.

 

[drsmith]

The EU's carbon price is heading in the opposite direction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EUETSSY1:IND

 

[wayneL]

Here's the only historical chart I can find - goes up to 2005

 

[drsmith]

Below is another for the southwest of WA as a whole.

It only goes back to 1900.

 

[qldfrog]

Below is another for the southwest of WA as a whole.

It only goes back to 1900.

if really interested in models and scenario which is not the case by many on the thread, south western australia is one of the only part of country which may benefit from global warming with higher rainfall and not too critical swings
[From memory in the rainmaker and other models I saw in the last few years;]
no such luck in the east where we will end up drier (with wider swings)
And no, I do not believe the carbon tax as is, is the solution
Not that this will prevent a reply implying I am selling babies blood and the australian soul as I believe global warming is man made and actually happening..
Why do I even bother...

 

[So_Cynical]

There is obviously a lack of belief in global warming, by most governments. I don't see a reduction in waterfront developments in any area I have visited.

As far as i know water front development has been banned in NSW for at least 10 years...and don't confuse a lack of political will with belief, most government are not keen on pushing GW action due to many factors, with lack of political will/courage etc at the top of the list.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We have had a top of 29C today in Townsville and looking at a low tonight of 23C, much as has been recorded for this time of year since settlement.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

Total rainfall is one thing, but it's the manner in which it falls which determines run-off (along with other things like evaporation, land use etc).

If there was a change in land use or a change in the pattern of rainfall then it's quite possible to have a large change in storage inflows even with zero change in the underlying rainfall totals.

If you've got a decent sized storage to fill then what you want are some high rainfall events which are far more helpful than the same volume falling evenly over an extended period (due to evaporation losses).

 

[drsmith]

And no, I do not believe the carbon tax as is, is the solution

There are too many conflicting objectives with a carbon tax.

 

[Knobby22]

Well those graphs of WA are showing lower rainfall over time and lets face it the global warming effect is only a fraction of where it may get to in 30 years.

I have worked on a few projects where the council with State government money has built new pedestrian/bike paths with higher sea walls to counteract the future rising tide than what was existing.

One example is the St Kilda foreshore. If you live near there then look how high the new path is above the sand.

 

[wayneL]

Can the fall in rainfall be scientifically links to emissions?

Is there any evidence of long tern rainfall averages (over centuries)?

We all know climate can change due to natural and other anthropogenic factors (land use etc), but where is the evidence this is exclusively due to GHGs.

 

[qldfrog]

Total rainfall is one thing, but it's the manner in which it falls which determines run-off (along with other things like evaporation, land use etc).

If there was a change in land use or a change in the pattern of rainfall then it's quite possible to have a large change in storage inflows even with zero change in the underlying rainfall totals.

If you've got a decent sized storage to fill then what you want are some high rainfall events which are far more helpful than the same volume falling evenly over an extended period (due to evaporation losses).

true and we need to be ready with mitigation strategy: more storm, higher average temperature and so evaporations: need more dams
Look at the situation here in Brisbane where dams are design for both mitigation AND drinking water storage
DUHHH as Homer Simpson would say; it is not compatible: a mitigation dam should be empty by the start of the rainy season...
Time to use some brain in infrastructure design