Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[Tisme]

This is the kind of article I'm interested in. It expands climate change on the basis of wet bulb temps as opposed to being obsessed with dry bulb (sensible). e.g. enthalpy is what air conditioners are sized on because evaporator coils have to handle both latent and sensible heat.

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/thesis/2007-willett/1INTRO.pdf

The climate system of the Earth is ever changing across all space and time scales. Evidence for past changes arises from “proxies” such as ice cores and geological records, and for more recent times from tree rings, coral growth, and historical documentary records. Only over the last two Centuries have we been actively measuring the atmosphere. Since the late 18th Century, measurements by thermometers and other surface instruments on land have been available along with measurements made by ships. After the Second World War, balloon-based sounding of the free atmosphere began and finally, since the 1970s satellites have also been employed to monitor the climate system....................

 

[basilio]

This is the kind of article I'm interested in. It expands climate change on the basis of wet bulb temps as opposed to being obsessed with dry bulb (sensible). e.g. enthalpy is what air conditioners are sized on because evaporator coils have to handle both latent and sensible heat.

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/thesis/2007-willett/1INTRO.pdf

Yes interesting.
High heat plus high humidity will be/is the killer with global warming. We don't need a longitutional study to establish that reality; it's arrived.

Humidity could be the killer with climate change
Conditions so severe that the human body can no longer cool itself could make some parts of the world all but uninhabitable. Richard A. Lovett reports on the new research.


In January 2015, thermometers in Marble Bar, Western Australia, touched 50 °C – a single degree shy of the national record. But it’s extreme humidity records we should be taking more notice of, a wave of new research suggests.

As the climate changes, deadly heatwaves that combine high temperatures with humidity so severe that the human body can no longer cool itself, could start to affect regions of the world currently home to hundreds of millions of people. That’s the conclusion reached by Columbia University’s Ethan Coffel, reported at an American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco in December.

In 2010, climate scientist Steven Sherwood from the University of New South Wales first highlighted the humidity problem. He modelled the widespread occurrence of extreme humidity events we might see by the end of the century, should worst-case CO2 emissions raise average global temperatures by 7 °C.

Coffel’s study, however, used the latest IPCC climate projections for 2060 and found regional, relatively near-future effects from much more modest heating.

This extreme humidity is less likely to occur in arid spots like Marble Bar. Coffel’s climate models suggest that there is more risk in India, West Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries along the Persian Gulf – environments where hot air meets very warm coastal waters.

'A 35 °C wet-bulb temperature is the point at which your sweat will not evaporate'

To model these events, Coffel looked at a number called the wet-bulb temperature, which combines heat and humidity into a single metric.

Wet-bulb temperature is taken by placing a damp cloth over the thermometer’s bulb. Evaporation cools the bulb, the same way perspiring cools the body. As humidity increases, the cooling effect slows. For many mammals, including humans, 35 °C wet-bulb temperature is critical.

“In theory, a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature is the point at which your sweat will not evaporate,” Coffel says.

At that point, even the fittest young adult is unlikely to survive more than a few hours before fatally overheating. But lower wet-bulb temperatures can still claim the lives of the elderly or infirm. Deadly heat waves in India and Pakistan that killed 5,000 people in 2015 only produced wet-bulb temperatures in the range of 29-31 °C, he says.

Coffel found that by 2060, an estimated 600 million people will live in regions at risk of heat waves producing wet bulb temperatures hitting 32 °C. Of these, 250 million could see heat waves with wet-bulb temperatures of 33 °C, and 50 million could see 34 °C – one degree shy of the limit.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/humidity-could-be-killer-climate-change

 

[Smurf1976]

More records broken, this time in Qld:

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/71797-qld-swelters-are-mercury-soars-past-40c.html

This sort of thing is becoming so common that it barely makes headline news these days. It used to but not now.

Meanwhile we've now had 11 consecutive years of above normal temperatures in Tasmania. Yes, 11 years. The details differ but the basic trend is the same in every state except the NT (ignoring the technicality of the NT not actually being a state but that's irrelevant in this context).

Regardless of the reasons it seems very clear to me that it's getting warmer. That's what the data shows.

 

[Tisme]

More records broken, this time in Qld:

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/71797-qld-swelters-are-mercury-soars-past-40c.html

This sort of thing is becoming so common that it barely makes headline news these days. It used to but not now.

Meanwhile we've now had 11 consecutive years of above normal temperatures in Tasmania. Yes, 11 years. The details differ but the basic trend is the same in every state except the NT (ignoring the technicality of the NT not actually being a state but that's irrelevant in this context).

Regardless of the reasons it seems very clear to me that it's getting warmer. That's what the data shows.

Remember QLD is at best sub tropical, so a 40°C day here is far worse than a typical 40°C in say Perth or Adelaide.

 

[explod]

The other issue becoming apparent is the volatility. Sure in the past after heat we'd have a cool change, usually just a southerly breeze here in Melbourne around 4pm, you could set your clock on it.


A few days back we were roasting and in the night all clothes off with the fan on. The last two nights very cold, last night the electric blanket on. Had to wear a jumper to go up the street this morning. And this is January.

 

[moXJO]

The other issue becoming apparent is the volatility. Sure in the past after heat we'd have a cool change, usually just a southerly breeze here in Melbourne around 4pm, you could set your clock on it.


A few days back we were roasting and in the night all clothes off with the fan on. The last two nights very cold, last night the electric blanket on. Had to wear a jumper to go up the street this morning. And this is January.

Thailand up in lampang got down to 10 degrees. They tend to wear snow weather gear when it hits 23 degrees. But 10 degrees is colder then anyone remembers.
They also enjoyed 50 plus degrees not too long ago.

 

[sptrawler]

Nothing to do with global warming, but good footage of a flooding in NW W.A.

 

[basilio]

New tack on CC by Big Oil. Interesting headlines and first paragraph but the rest of the story bears a close look as well.
In court, Big Oil rejected climate denial
If even oil companies accept human-caused global warming, why doesn’t everybody?

Dana Nuccitelli

Fri 23 Mar 2018 06.00 EDT Last modified on Fri 23 Mar 2018 06.02 EDT


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A combination of file photos shows the logos of five of the largest publicly traded oil companies - BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total. Photograph: REUTERS/Reuters
In a California court case this week, Judge William Alsup asked the two sides to provide him a climate science tutorial.

The plaintiffs are the coastal cities of San Francisco and Oakland. They’re suing five major oil companies (Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP) to pay for the cities’ costs to cope with the sea level rise caused by global warming. Chevron’s lawyer presented the science for the defense, and most notably, began by explicitly accepting the expert consensus on human-caused global warming, saying:

From Chevron’s perspective, there is no debate about the science of climate change

Chevron’s first slide quotes #IPCC: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Says there is no debate on this consensus. #climatetutorial #climateliability

10:06 am - 21 Mar 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...r/23/in-court-big-oil-rejected-climate-denial

 

[SirRumpole]

Nothing to do with global warming,

How do you know it has nothing to do with global warming ?

 

[SirRumpole]

Chevron’s first slide quotes #IPCC: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Says there is no debate on this consensus. #climatetutorial #climateliability

Yep, it's time for the cynics to take notice of their masters.

 

[basilio]

And the consequences of years of human generated global warming ? Don't hang onto your seaside estates for much longer.

Underwater melting of Antarctic ice far greater than thought, study finds
The base of the ice around the south pole shrank by 1,463 square kilometres between 2010 and 2016

Jonathan Watts

Mon 2 Apr 2018 12.18 EDT Last modified on Mon 2 Apr 2018 17.00 EDT


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An Adelie penguin standing on a block of melting ice in East Antarctica. Photograph: Reuters
Hidden underwater melt-off in the Antarctic is doubling every 20 years and could soon overtake Greenland to become the biggest source of sea-level rise, according to the first complete underwater map of the world’s largest body of ice.

Warming waters have caused the base of ice near the ocean floor around the south pole to shrink by 1,463 square kilometres – an area the size of Greater London – between 2010 and 2016, according to the new study published in Nature Geoscience.

The research by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the University of Leeds suggests climate change is affecting the Antarctic more than previously believed and is likely to prompt global projections of sea-level rise to be revised upward.


Until recently, the Antarctic was seen as relatively stable. Viewed from above, the extent of land and sea ice in the far south has not changed as dramatically as in the far north.


But the new study found even a small increase in temperature has been enough to cause a loss of five metres every year from the bottom edge of the ice sheet, some of which is more than 2km underwater.

“What’s happening is that Antarctica is being melted away at its base. We can’t see it, because it’s happening below the sea surface,” said Professor Andrew Shepherd, one of the authors of the paper. “The changes mean that very soon the sea-level contribution from Antarctica could outstrip that from Greenland.”

The study measures the Antarctic’s “grounding line” – the bottommost edge of the ice sheet across 16,000km of coastline. This is done by using elevation data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 and applying Archimedes’s principle of buoyancy, which relates the thickness of floating ice to the height of its surface.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ctic-ice-far-greater-than-thought-study-finds

 

[explod]

Cooking.

”The mercury topped out at 35.4C in Sydney’s CBD at 2.25pm. The average maximum for April is a mere 22.5C. Sydney Airport was even hotter reaching 36.8C.
At 36.3C at 3pm, Adelaide has also experienced its hottest April day ever, beating a record set back in 1938.
Canberra, too, is experiencing summer like day way above average for autumn, with its warmest start to the month on record.
“It’s a big milestone (for Sydney) as it’s also the warmest start to April on record when you average out maximum temperatures so far,” Tom Saunders, a meteorologist at Sky News told news.com.au.
Given Sydney has some of Australia’s most extensive weather data, going back 150 years, breaking the April record is no mean feat.
“But I can’t say I’m surprised that the record was broken today. 2016 was the most recent record breaking April in Sydney and much of that is due to global warming,” said Mr Saunders.”

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/…/…/a6d526dfcf55d518500afded08729eef…

 

[explod]

And on the toes of the record heat yesterday we're going to have some snow tomorrow.

The melting recently discovered under the Antarctic is kicking in now. The displacement effect is accelerating.

 

[moXJO]

And on the toes of the record heat yesterday we're going to have some snow tomorrow.

The melting recently discovered under the Antarctic is kicking in now. The displacement effect is accelerating.

Yeah its definitely changed weather patterns. My fathers fruit and veggie patch is going crazy. I'm seeing fruit being grown that previously wouldn’t grow here. Yep thats my scientific measure.

Personally I think we should be preparing for change rather then going hell for leather on carbon. Nothing we do is going to stop cc now. Better off investing in water security, cool zones, and better farm practice. Cities will need further planning as well.

 

[cynic]

Cooking.

”The mercury topped out at 35.4C in Sydney’s CBD at 2.25pm. The average maximum for April is a mere 22.5C....

Plod did you happen to notice the statistical "sleight of hand" being employed in this sentence.

It isn't actually saying whether or not a new maximum, for the month of April,was achieved, nor is it saying that a new maximum average was achieved!

In fact it isn't even telling you how that maximum temperature truly compares to those throughout the years used to calculate their average maximum, nor is it clear about which historical April days (i.e all of them, or only those 8 days corresponding with the elapsed portion of the current April month) were used for calculation of that average maximum.

It is mendacious employment of statistical trickery such as this, amongst other logically bereft practices, that gives skeptics ample justification for holding to a cynical stance.

 

[basilio]

Plod did you happen to notice the statistical "sleight of hand" being employed in this sentence.

It isn't actually saying whether or not a new maximum, for the month of April,was achieved, nor is it saying that a new maximum average was achieved!

In fact it isn't even telling you how that maximum temperature truly compares to those throughout the years used to calculate their average maximum, nor is it clear about which historical April days (i.e all of them, or only those 8 days corresponding with the elapsed portion of the current April month) were used for calculation of that average maximum.

It is mendacious employment of statistical trickery such as this, amongst other logically bereft practices, that gives skeptics ample justification for holding to a cynical stance.

This is total and complete load of rubbish even for you Cynic. If you ever care to actually pursue reality rather than the ridiculous notions you conjure in your mind you will find that the temperatures across Australia in March /April 2018 have been significantly above the average temperatures of previous years.
This month in particular has set new temperature records that have toppled records set only a few years ago. The heat is on.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/...e-settles-in-over-sydney-20180411-p4z920.html
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...k=8907bc9eb4bca2048547efd1b5644f98-1523663532
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/vi...k=8907bc9eb4bca2048547efd1b5644f98-1523663590

 

[basilio]

Yeah its definitely changed weather patterns. My fathers fruit and veggie patch is going crazy. I'm seeing fruit being grown that previously wouldn’t grow here. Yep thats my scientific measure.

Personally I think we should be preparing for change rather then going hell for leather on carbon. Nothing we do is going to stop cc now. Better off investing in water security, cool zones, and better farm practice. Cities will need further planning as well.

Ok MoXJO so you agree that CC is real and happening.

Exactly how bad do you think it could get in the next 10, 20, 50, 100 years ? What will the consequences be ?

Why does the scientific community demand that we radically reduce CO2 emissions even as the world is burning? Simply because these emissions are the fuel that will take our climate from hot to completely unbearable.
And in any case fossil fuel is
1) Running out
2) Too expensive
3) Polluting the environment an
4) Destroying our climate.

Yeah we have to do everything you say in spades. But if we want even a sliver of a chance to survive as a coherant society we have to take immense steps in reversing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...emissions-have-suddenly-started-rising-again/
https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-1-5c-closer-imagine-44124/

 

[cynic]

This is total and complete load of rubbish even for you Cynic. If you ever care to actually pursue reality rather than the ridiculous notions you conjure in your mind you will find that the temperatures across Australia in March /April 2018 have been significantly above the average temperatures of previous years.
This month in particular has set new temperature records that have toppled records set only a few years ago. The heat is on.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/...e-settles-in-over-sydney-20180411-p4z920.html
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...k=8907bc9eb4bca2048547efd1b5644f98-1523663532
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/vi...k=8907bc9eb4bca2048547efd1b5644f98-1523663590

A one day maximum temperature, a third of the way into its calendar month, has been proclaimed as meaningful based upon a, highly inappropriate, comparison to the historical average maximum temperatures for that particular month!!!

In light of this, how does one pointing out the deviousness of such attempts at bamboozlement of the general populace, entitle another to retort with accusations of rubbish?

How about we take the time to look at the raw data employed, and then apply some appropriate metrics, before blindly accepting any claims to the relentless toppling of weather records.

That way we might be able to arrive at a clearer picture of what (if anything) may be truly happening, and thereby more confidently determine where the accusations of rubbish truly belong!!

Edit: I forgot to mention one of my own personal observations of the seeming shifting of seasons, relative to our calendar year, which (provided my observation is correct) would potentially render comparisons based upon calendar month invalid due to non correspondence with past seasons.

 

[Smurf1976]

Why does the scientific community demand that we radically reduce CO2 emissions

At a purely personal level I've been aware of this issue since the 1980's and have given it an awful lot of thought over that time.

The problem is not engineering. Ways to drastically reduce CO2 do exist.

The problem is not a lack of materials. We have the materials to build the things needed to reduce CO2.

The problem is not lack of labour. There's enough people unemployed who could, with appropriate training, build this stuff.

The problem is not reasonable environmentalism. NIMBY's and those insisting on perfection or nothing with no concept of compromise can be a major obstruction but sensible science based conservation isn't standing in the way.

The problem is ultimately the financial system. So long as we've got an economic system which operates in only two modes, constant growth or outright collapse, it's a given that we'll in due course use every possible resource on the planet and that includes the atmosphere. Related to that is population growth, a massive problem in itself.

Now, how do we go about replacing pretty much the entire financial system? There's going to be a hell of a lot of resistance to that one.

 

[moXJO]

Ok MoXJO so you agree that CC is real and happening.

Exactly how bad do you think it could get in the next 10, 20, 50, 100 years ? What will the consequences be ?

Why does the scientific community demand that we radically reduce CO2 emissions even as the world is burning? Simply because these emissions are the fuel that will take our climate from hot to completely unbearable.
And in any case fossil fuel is
1) Running out
2) Too expensive
3) Polluting the environment an
4) Destroying our climate.

Yeah we have to do everything you say in spades. But if we want even a sliver of a chance to survive as a coherant society we have to take immense steps in reversing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...emissions-have-suddenly-started-rising-again/
https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-1-5c-closer-imagine-44124/

Money Bas.
I don't agree with Australia wasting money on carbon initiatives first. It's a waste of time and money. The tech will come to reduce emissions and it won't be manufactured here.
And even if Australia did reduce to zero, it would still have no effect. Its a feelgood, do nothing waste of money. If find most CC discussion alarmist bs.

We would be better to prep first with water and food security. These are things that Australia can actually do and help the rest of the world with.