Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[basilio]

From a climate scientists perspective the reality of global warming and the consequences on our world are now overwhelming facts. There is just no sensible argument to say we are not warming up at a very rapid rate and that if this warming is not, in some way, moderated we will make large areas of the earth uninhabitable by people. Every-single-detail may not be cast in stone. The overwhelming trend is.

That is "science speak" . Measured, factual and relatively emotionless. But when people absorb what this means they understand this is a death sentence for hundreds of millions of people and an incredibly challenging life for those fortunate enough to stay alive. These are the reasons why we have Extinction Rebellion and the current Climate Strike by students. Unless there is an overwhelming , universal concerted effort to reduce and suck CO2 out of the atmosphere they have a very bleak future.

It seems to me that on ASF only a few people actually understand what the scientific evidence is telling us. Many members seem to think that global warming is "real" but nowhere near as bad as the "alarmists" would have us believe.

I suppose 15-20 years one might have argued that we couldn't be sure the world was warming (it was) . Catastrophic climate related events were happening but... well maybe that was just natural variation at work? Certainly that is a more attractive proposition.

The last 5 years however destroyed any of these mirages. Global temperatures have shot up at a accelerating rate. The Arctic and Antarctic are warming at 200-300% more than the mid latitudes. As a consequences of the new heat records, we have now seen fires in regions and at times that have never happened in our recorded history. And given the continual increase in temperatures these events can only get worse. Jut consider the unprecedented early onset fires in Queensland and fact that now rainforests have been burning because it has become so dry and so hot Should this ring alarm bells ?

Nothing I have said about the critical nature of what is happening to our climate is new. The research, the reports, the warnings have just been getting stronger and louder - and still largely ignored or soft pedelled. The big change in the last couple of years has been a grass roots realisation kicked off by Greta Thunberg to call a spade a spade - our house is burning, this is an emergency, we have to ACT now. She has just put the millions of pages of scientific research, temperature records, ice melt records, loss of habitat into a stark message.

I don't know how many people here read any summaries of what climate scientists are telling us. Maybe it's worth a look ?

https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global-warming/science-and-impacts/global-warming-impacts
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/are-effects-global-warming-really-bad
https://eos.org/features/how-will-climate-change-affect-the-united-states-in-decades-to-come
https://www.independent.co.uk/envir...mate-change-end-century-science-a8095591.html
https://history.aip.org/climate/timeline.htm

 

[Smurf1976]

If there's one thing I'd change to improve all of this it would be improve the general public's understanding of the practical application of maths and science.

They're compulsory subjects at school and yet somehow we've got a society where rather a lot can't manage to apply simple maths to everyday situations and the same goes for science.

If people would think for themselves, well that doesn't make them an expert on any given subject but it does give them the tools to spot things which don't add up.

At the moment there's far too many who ask the bank how much money they can borrow rather than working it out themselves, deferring to "experts" with at best a vested interest, at worst who aren't really experts. Same concept with anything involving maths or science - bank loans are just an example.

 

[Smurf1976]

From a climate scientists perspective the reality of global warming and the consequences on our world are now overwhelming facts. There is just no sensible argument to say we are not warming up at a very rapid rate and that if this warming is not, in some way, moderated we will make large areas of the earth uninhabitable by people. Every-single-detail may not be cast in stone. The overwhelming trend is.

I suspect there's more complexity in the whole thing than is truly understood by anyone, actual experts included since nobody's across literally every aspect of it, but agreed that the observed trend in temperature etc seems clear, it is widespread geographically, it's alarming and at least part of the cause is known with reasonable certainty. To the extent there's doubt, it's about the detail of what's happening, what the consequences will be and what other causes may exist.

A new temperature record in Adelaide could be dismissed as just a random occurrence as could hot weather in France or wherever. It's rather hard to do that though when it keeps happening year after year and it's turning up everywhere from unpopulated parts of Tasmania through to central London.

That said, I stand by my conclusion that the issue is way out of our hands and that bashing heads against walls won't really fix anything.

 

[Knobby22]

My son is going to the walk tomorrow.
He's 15 and not a lefty in any sense.

He is into weather though and knows where we are going so fair enough.
After all he is on the earth for another 70 years probably.

 

[sptrawler]

My son is going to the walk tomorrow.
He's 15 and not a lefty in any sense.

He is into weather though and knows where we are going so fair enough.
After all he is on the earth for another 70 years probably.

Couldn't they have organised it on a pupil free day, so they didn't miss school, it's not as though we are leading the World with our educational outcomes.

 

[SirRumpole]

Couldn't they have organised it on a pupil free day, so they didn't miss school, it not as though we are leading the World with our educational outcomes.

School holidays coming up, plenty of time then.

 

[sptrawler]

That said, I stand by my conclusion that the issue is way out of our hands and that bashing heads against walls won't really fix anything.

Who knows what the next issue will be, I guess when climate change runs out of mileage, the press will decide what is next for those who need a cause.

 

[sptrawler]

School holidays coming up, plenty of time then.

Yes I thought of that, but they probably wouldn't want to interrupt their holiday, recovering from the hard slog.
Same as they could have held it on a weekend, heaven forbid, that wouldn't be fun.

 

[moXJO]

.
And please do not assume things about what I think as you have been wrong on many occasions, including this one.

Science has already shown I'm always right.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Couldn't they have organised it on a pupil free day, so they didn't miss school, it's not as though we are leading the World with our educational outcomes.

School holidays coming up, plenty of time then.

The whole point is to strike...

I'm just imagining you guys sitting in the 1800s when Australians are working 14 hour days 6 days a week and you are saying "couldn't they strike on Sunday, so they didn't miss work, it's not as though we are leading the world with our productivity outcomes", "Queens Birthday coming up, plenty of time then".

Try and keep up.

 

[rederob]

Roy Spencer thinks natural variation explains warming.
He's been producing this temperature series for a very long time:

Back in 2008 Roy thought a "cooling" phase was probable.
Roy is certainly not stupid, although has contributed to and with various denialist groups over the years.
So with his series now having 40 years of data he might have thought there was a trend emerging. Here's a talk he gave a year ago.
It was straight from the denialist copy book, carefully avoiding presenting his own work in case others might have seen something a bit obvious.
This chart from RSS (below) uses the same original data:

Without overlaying them it's hard to pick where they are different. In a fashion, that's my point.
We do not have to.
Again, the trend is obvious, and here we can see that RSS notes a decadal rate of change of 0.2Kelvin - which is broadly consistent with IPCC modelling rates going forward.
On topic, there is nothing presently happening on the global front that can give us any confidence that this trend will be reversed.
It's the next bit we should all be concerned about.
Except for cloud albedo (which would give rise to slight cooling in future), Arctic albedo and other feedback mechanisms suggest an acceleration of the warming trend.
That's not a pleasant thought.

 

[sptrawler]

The whole point is to strike...

I'm just imagining you guys sitting in the 1800s when Australians are working 14 hour days 6 days a week and you are saying "couldn't they strike on Sunday, so they didn't miss work, it's not as though we are leading the world with our productivity outcomes", "Queens Birthday coming up, plenty of time then".

Try and keep up.

To strike is to remove your labour to cause financial or output based problems for your employer.
To be a student is to spend as much time as possible, learning as much as possible, so you may be able to be employed.
I'm missing the connection, but I'm from the 1800's.
In my day it was called wagging school, the cops took you back to school and you got the cane. lol

 

[bi-polar]

Poland was the first nation to outlaw corporal punishment in schools in 1783. Corporal punishment was banned in Soviet (and hence, Russian) schools in 1917 and continues in parts of the United States and in NT, WA and Qld. In 2005 a US court found that a substantial number of death-penalty states had recently acted to exempt juveniles from capital punishment. Many US kids still can't find Australia on a map or pronounce "Trunbull".

 

[InsvestoBoy]

To strike is to remove your labour to cause financial or output based problems for your employer.

These kids will be striking from school for the same reason people strike from work: to affect change.

In my day it was called wagging school, the cops took you back to school and you got the cane. lol

In your day they used to treat homosexuality as a crime and ruin peoples lives for being gay. I guess some things just change!

 

[SirRumpole]

These kids will be striking from school for the same reason people strike from work: to affect change.


In your day they used to treat homosexuality as a crime and ruin peoples lives for being gay. I guess some things just change!

So maybe all the teachers should refund their pay for that day as they are not doing what we pay them to do ?

 

[bi-polar]

Certainly the hourly rate rule applies for teachers on strike and in the Deep North the Head Teacher is justified in a light , reasonable whipping for the teacher.

 

[Smurf1976]

On the political side of all this, I'll simply sum up my frustration with two examples from today:

1. On another forum's discussion of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, there are people seriously arguing that electric vehicles are bad idea because charging them might involve using coal.

Well sure, yes, in some places charging an EV will involve using coal but last time I checked there weren't too many wars being fought over the stuff and supply wasn't in danger of being cut off.

The apparent inability to consider that there is any issue of importance other than CO2 frustrates me greatly and I suspect that's at the heart of some other comments in this thread. Being concerned about this issue doesn't preclude also being concerned about, or doing, other things also.

Sure, yes, CO2 seems to be a problem but fighting wars or not having fuel to run vehicles would also be a rather serious problem. A singular focus on anything, to the exclusion of all else, is never helpful. Just because someone's gone to a concert tonight or claimed a tax deduction for self education expenses doesn't mean they aren't concerned about climate change, house prices or workers in certain countries who are still messing about with asbestos. It's possible to do more than one thing yes.

2. I see in the Age there's yet another nice photo of condensed steam coming out of a cooling tower in relation to climate change.

Yeah, OK, it's a nice cooling tower (the ones in the photo are owned by AGL for the record) but so what? Might as well have published a photo of a kitten playing with a ball of wool or some kids playing cricket in the local park. Or better still, publish a photo that actually has something to do with the subject of the article instead of misleading the average reader into thinking that cooling towers are the problem.

 

[bi-polar]

Heat comes from oxidising carbon.

 

[sptrawler]

These kids will be striking from school for the same reason people strike from work: to affect change.


In your day they used to treat homosexuality as a crime and ruin peoples lives for being gay. I guess some things just change!

Well the change will happen whether they strike or not, but I dont think their educational outcomes will improve. Just my opinion.

 

[bi-polar]

Students block streets at ATO.
Thousands of school students marched through Sydney today protesting the Labor tax policy on franked dividends . Typically the rate is between 4% and 8% on average and students receive a franking credit for tax already paid by the corporation. A student organiser , Bill Bourse 15, explained that portfolios are already shrunk after GFC and made worse by Trade Wars.