Is anybody losing money on Forex?
- Thread starter NickF
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You know, I am looking for a person or more who claim they are so unsuccessful that almost any transaction they make, end up losing money. Because I find it hard to believe there are such people. If such people existed, they would be very successful and very appreciated as advisors.
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https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28356
Why don't you scan the 'Forex' forum.....oh look, here's the same question 3 threads down.
pinkboy
Why don't you scan the 'Forex' forum.....oh look, here's the same question 3 threads down.
pinkboy
I've seen that question and it's different from mine. There are a lot of wingers out there, but I know they all make money. I am looking for somebody who can prove me they are losing money. Why doesn't somebody tell me: look, I am going to buy this currency at this price right now and I can almost guarantee it will lose money in this amount of time. I am looking for the king of the losers, who can prove they can lose with facts. It does not even have to be a real transaction, a virtual transaction is equally as good.
All I will do is to do the same transaction in my forex virtual account and if I make money, I will praise his/her skills.
If they convince me they are consistent losers, I may even pay real money to them!
Simple, isn't it?
Nick
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Hi Nick,
So is your question directed at those who haven't had to work hard for their money, who maybe practice 'madness', repeating the same mistakes over and over again, simply blowing their maybe, inherited or easy come by cash?
So is your question directed at those who haven't had to work hard for their money, who maybe practice 'madness', repeating the same mistakes over and over again, simply blowing their maybe, inherited or easy come by cash?
It really doesn't matter if they pick the trades without any thinking or it they complete a phd before they place one trade. As long as they lose more than the inherent trading fees, their advice is valuable enough to the rest of us
I would be one of those people, but my proven (bad) track record is too short to be of any value...
How are you going to exit ?
Most people lose a lot because they move their stop/overleverage. Are you going to do the opposite, underleverage and not take profit ? Or are you going to take the same position size, overleverage, and not take profit ?
Most that follow their system and risk sensibly 0.5-1%per trade are going to chop around breakeven to negative skewed because of spread. You're going to have to overcome the spread which is an uphill battle.
Also when you tell someone you're going to follow their signals and do the opposite, their psychology changes which changes their trading behaviour. Maybe they will just spew out random trades to please you as they are going to receive your compensation anyway ? Are they going to demo trade and not put live money on - we all know demo traders are more profitable, are you going to reverse their profitable demo trades ?
Most people lose a lot because they move their stop/overleverage. Are you going to do the opposite, underleverage and not take profit ? Or are you going to take the same position size, overleverage, and not take profit ?
Most that follow their system and risk sensibly 0.5-1%per trade are going to chop around breakeven to negative skewed because of spread. You're going to have to overcome the spread which is an uphill battle.
Also when you tell someone you're going to follow their signals and do the opposite, their psychology changes which changes their trading behaviour. Maybe they will just spew out random trades to please you as they are going to receive your compensation anyway ? Are they going to demo trade and not put live money on - we all know demo traders are more profitable, are you going to reverse their profitable demo trades ?
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Ok, I think I follow. There is unfinished news business from last week, but....
Go short EURUSD tomorrow on open and close it 24hrs later. Like normal trading the 24hrs could extend out to 48hrs to lose even more, if that's the goal.
Go short GBPUSD tomorrow on open and close it 24hrs later. Ditto above.
Like consistent losing positions, they let losers run, so giving exact closing times would not be consistent with consistent losers, hence a window to maximise losses.
I could probably throw some others into the mix, but I think some would take it too seriously.
Good points Minwa.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE! This reply is merely in humour to the initial posting. I would not even trade the inverse of the above.
Go short EURUSD tomorrow on open and close it 24hrs later. Like normal trading the 24hrs could extend out to 48hrs to lose even more, if that's the goal.
Go short GBPUSD tomorrow on open and close it 24hrs later. Ditto above.
Like consistent losing positions, they let losers run, so giving exact closing times would not be consistent with consistent losers, hence a window to maximise losses.
I could probably throw some others into the mix, but I think some would take it too seriously.
Good points Minwa.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE! This reply is merely in humour to the initial posting. I would not even trade the inverse of the above.
Yes, you are correct in saying that if people are aware of being watched, they will not act "naturally" - like when filming a person, if they are aware of being filmed, they will become unnatural.
Basically, I just thought to get some people in the formum saying "I purchased this, at this price" and then wait for them to come back a few hours or days later and complain - what did I tell you, look how much I lost! That would be the exit for me
Since I don't do real trades, I just thought of this for the fun of it. If over 90% of the people lose money in the market (more than the spread), then clearly it should be a way to act the opposite way than the crowd and make a bit of money. It is true that spreads represent a significant portion of the loss, but somehow I believe there are many people losing much more than just the spread.
Nick
Cogs, you are confusing me. Are you telling me to go short if I want to lose or if I want to make money?
I don't want somebody to tell me what to do. I want a consistent loser to tell me what they just did (a real transaction, either with real money or with virtual money), and then I will do the opposite and see what comes out
Yes, agree. People should not use all this advice for real trades, it's just for fun. After all, what if that loser hits the jackpot?
So far, my virtual account is around $49750. I started about a week ago at $50000. I don't care at what pace it does grow (and I don't care if it goes the other way around). I my account drops, at least somebody would have (hopefully) made some money. If my account increases, at least somebody will have the satisfaction to to say "what did I tell you, I lost money, just as I predicted!"
I know that may be not much of a reward, if that person lost real money...Nick
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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It won't work. The results will be like the double slit experiment. Things change when "observed".
[video=youtube_share;Q1YqgPAtzho]http://youtu.be/Q1YqgPAtzho[/video]
[video=youtube_share;Q1YqgPAtzho]http://youtu.be/Q1YqgPAtzho[/video]
It won't work. The results will be like the double slit experiment. Things change when "observed".
Yes, I also thought of that, but I didn't mention it - people may have thought I'm too smart
However, this is why I mentioned that people should inform us about their real trades - if things change, they may end up making money, which is good for them, if the result is still bad for them, it should be good for the rest of us.
Nick
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No one is going to tell you a specific trade as to follow the 'never give financial advice' rule of the forum, and the same rule for general outside the forum as if you're not qualified to give advice you could be sued.
pinkboy
pinkboy
I understand. Too bad, I thought it would be fun.
But, for example - if I place a virtual trade in my account and I state - I purchased this currency at this price - and state this is not financial advice, can't I get away with it, without breaching the forum rules?
Nick
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Given that forex is a zero sum game from the perspective of traders (actually a negative sum once you take spreads into account), if someone is making a profit then someone else must be losing money. 
Do you plan on being on the other end of their trade or something? Taking a short on their long, and visa-versa?
I just seriously can't see the point in this thread. Nor do I believe anyone above me is understanding the theory behind it - besides learning of everybody else's mistakes which wouldn't you prefer to study your own mistakes?
I just seriously can't see the point in this thread. Nor do I believe anyone above me is understanding the theory behind it - besides learning of everybody else's mistakes which wouldn't you prefer to study your own mistakes?
Do you plan on being on the other end of their trade or something? Taking a short on their long, and visa-versa?
That's correct. When somebody places a long, I would place a short, and see what happens.
I would study my own mistakes, but I don't make any mistakes...
Nick
I agree with that. So, why not pairing with somebody who loses money and do the opposite?Given that forex is a zero sum game from the perspective of traders (actually a negative sum once you take spreads into account), if someone is making a profit then someone else must be losing money.
Nick
DeepState
Multi-Strategy, Quant and Fundamental
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Menkhoff L, Sarno L and Schmeling A, 2012, "The Cross-Section of Currency Order Flow", Working Paper
...examined tick level data and found that professional fund managers and currency trading hedge funds took money out of the market in aggregate. There are relatively few of these. The losers were Private Client and retail, and also the hedgers...in aggregate. There are relatively many of these. Hence a massive failure rate and the profit accrues to the few.
Basically, to win systematically in FX as a retail punter, you are going to have to emulate George Costanza and do the opposite of whatever you would have done...without second guessing it and losing faith in it.
Thanks for the info, RY. The document is quite good - I understand everything if I read it one word at a time, but it gets a bit confusing if I try to read one sentence at a time.
Seinfeld was my preferred show and George Constanza is my hero! Little wonder he is given as an example for the share market.
Nick
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