Is anybody losing money on Forex?

[AussieMatt]

Hey Nick,

Why don't you focus on what winning traders do instead of letting your mind focus on how to lose money?

Its really simple. demo something that sits well with your philosophy and personality, become consistently profitable on demo then risk real money. Or start really small and increase size as you become more confident.

If your serious it will take time, effort and dedication. if your not serious or willing to put in the effort and time to gain experience then that's fine as well, just understand that this will be an expensive hobby for you.

I understand what you are saying, its just not the best way to think about this in my opinion, I would not want a surgeon operating on me that spent 10 years studying what not to do, I would want someone who has spent the time to gain experience and confidence and has filled their head with productive knowledge that will get the desired result.

 

[SuperGlue]

I agree with that. So, why not pairing with somebody who loses money and do the opposite?

Nick

Just for argument sake.

He/she sees NickF taking oppsite trades & making money, decides to flip and NickF err... err... flips too.


Another scenario:

After all this time & lots of lost fortunes.

You know what?
NickF has found the solution to my money losing trading system.
He's a smart cookie.

I'll just change my trading system the other way.

Guess what happens?

 

[NickF]

Just for argument sake.

He/she sees NickF taking oppsite trades & making money, decides to flip and NickF err... err... flips too.

Another scenario:

After all this time & lots of lost fortunes.

You know what?
NickF has found the solution to my money losing trading system.
He's a smart cookie.

I'll just change my trading system the other way.

Guess what happens?

It would be nice if I could change my trading system from a losing one to a winning one at will.
Why should I believe that you will be able to change your trading system the other way?
I tried changing my system (for one day only) and I still lost money - and because I am a smart cookie, I concluded - it's not so easy to change the system. In my case, I don't even have a system, yet.

But I'll take your advice and I'll keep trying to fine tune my system and progressively lower my losses.

Nick

 

[DJG]

So it can accurately be assumed that a trader goes into a trade believing they will make money (otherwise they wouldn't of traded it in the first place).

So Trader A ends up making money and Trader B (you) loses money as you're on the opposite side of his trade. - You lose.

Visa-versa, he loses - you win.

So how do you expect to make money by taking the opposite side of someones trade besides in hindsight?

How do you or they know it'll result in a losing trade? Therefore allowing you to profit by being opposite.

You'd have as much luck as clicking buy at anytime during trading, or clicking sell. Essentially seems like the same logic.

Am I missing something here?

 

[Dean34]

Hi All,

I am curious if there is anybody consistently losing some significant amount of money.
I am not talking about losing the pips that represent the fee, I am talking about something significantly more.

Nick

Someone once said, if you back test a system and it produces a poor result, (i.e. negative), then do the opposite.

 

[DeepState]

Hi All,

I am curious if there is anybody consistently losing some significant amount of money.
I am not talking about losing the pips that represent the fee, I am talking about something significantly more.

Nick

The FX market turned over USD 5.3 tr per day in April 2013, the period of the triennial survey into this activity conducted by the BIS. Anyone winning/losing consistently in this market is doing it in dollops.

The chart below shows you the 'factor' return for the 10 yr bond carry trade involving the six most significant pairs vs USD for the 10 year period to current day (excludes weekends):





It is going up. Forget about day to day profitability in this market unless you are a market maker taking spread - well, you can try and who am I to stop you. There are many other types of ideas besides this one, but this is a widely noted anomaly which I wanted to verify. It exists. It is by no means the most profitable but is provided for illustration.

Whoever is on the wrong side of this trade is losing by the bucket load. These people are mostly those who finance in high interest rate environments for the purpose of investing (on an unhedged basis) or consuming offshore products and services. These are the commercials. Do the opposite of them Mr Costanza. You can get this info if you work at it.

Hope all is good with you Nick.

 

[William B]

Losses are part of Forex and it is very common that most of the traders loose their money very quickly due to the lack of knowledge,skills and proper planning. So do not start trading if you have no skills and knowledge about Forex and look back and try to learn the basics of Forex to avoid losses.

 

[Value Collector]

I would find it hard to believe someone could lose on every trade, Even random chance should have them winning at least 50% of the time wouldn't it. Offcourse fees would put them in a net loss, but I mean picking consistent losers in a 50/50 game is just as hard as picking consistent winners.

So finding a guru loser to bet against is just as hard as finding a guru winner to bet with, at least that my impression.

 

[Smurf1976]

I would find it hard to believe someone could lose on every trade, Even random chance should have them winning at least 50% of the time wouldn't it.

For one individual to lose every single trade = fairly unlikely but not impossible.

But that someone loses on every trade = definitely. In order for someone to win, someone else must lose since it's a negative sum game.

As for the 50% random chance, even that may be difficult to attain in practice. Eg simply failing to exit the trade at all, leaving it until stopped out, will give you well over a 50% loss rate if applied randomly.