Is a profit of 100% per year good enough?

[CanOz]

I have a grudge ? Read the thread first, NickF brought him up not me. I simply analysed what I thought of him based on what is available. All the response I got was "I will be sued" or "you shall not slander him" without anything further to be added to respond to my points made.

If we were to use your logic then all the people slamming Alvin/Kertcher on Kertcher's thread are in the "wrong" too ? Why do you not stand up for them. Simply because you dismiss Platinum Pursuits as I dismiss Radge (and Kertcher). You think everyone on that thread have a grudge for Kertcher ?

I thought this was a forum for discussion. Quote me on one post where I have not presented any information and simply slandered him.

This is turning into a joke, this will be the last post I make on this thread on Radge, releasing my err "draw down grudge". Anyone going through this can make up their own mind.

Still more than happy for you to trade the Power setups live on paper. You don't have to commit funds and more people can be informed of Radge's systems in forward testing.

I stand up for Nick because I've known him nearly a decade....I would do the same for you, or anyone else of integrity that I've know that long.

I don't know Daniel, if i knew him i would stand up for him as well if he had the integrity that i know Nick to have.

I'm not interested in any trading contests, I start a real job in two weeks.

 

[CanOz]

His systems only seem to work in a raging bull market (admittedly you can say that about many systems).

Yes Banco, the 20% Flipper is a trend following system. They only perform well when there are trends and you need to be trading the system when it turns on and starts to follow the trend.

Nick also has a mean reversion type system as well but i am not familiar with it.

It doesn't matter what system you have, you have to trade it for it to capture whatever edge you have.

 

[CanOz]

Back from self-imposed exile after a period of cleansing and celibacy.

Hi CanOz, what do an index filter and exit logic look like? This is the second time I've come across the flipper so I'm actually curious about it.

Hope things are cool with you, btw.

Cheers

RY

Hi RY, the index filter is just based on a moving average of the underlying index. There are a couple of different exit strats available depending on which version you have. The exits are very simple and maintain their robustness.

 

[NickF]

I am a bit pissed off with Forex because, although advertised as a 24/7 market, I can't trade (virtually) in the weekend, when I have a bit more time than during the week. My attempted trade, placed carefully on Friday night was blatantly disregarded! I shorted the currency, the price dropped to my limit early on Saturday and, because it was weekend, nothing happened! All the work I put my random selection has been wasted... Just look at the surgical precision of my limit!

Nick

 

[DeepState]

I am a bit pissed off with Forex because, although advertised as a 24/7 market, I can't trade (virtually) in the weekend, when I have a bit more time than during the week. My attempted trade, placed carefully on Friday night was blatantly disregarded! I shorted the currency, the price dropped to my limit early on Saturday and, because it was weekend, nothing happened! All the work I put my random selection has been wasted... Just look at the surgical precision of my limit!

Nick

View attachment 58029

Your CFD provider might have shut its engine before the market officially closed for the week. They do this to avoid attempting to hedge the trade whilst liquidity is thinner as happens in the last hour of the New York session. Similarly, they open for business after Australia actually starts trading on Monday for the same reasons.

Consider yourself lucky that you have come across this operational wrinkle that has highlighted that CFDs are just a window into the actual market and is not actually the market.

Since this is play time, we can dream that you are an A-tier client of mine despite infecting me with foot-in-mouthitis. I am happy to help you out on this occasion and offer you a swap contract to take your position at the limit price. We'll chuck the P&L into the errors account this time on the understanding that you will remain a good client of RYFX. The paperwork will be with you shortly. We'll route the hedge trade through to Citadel to hammer it out via HFT algo.

You owe me a bottle...would you mind tickling Libor up a touch please.

 

[TheUnknown]

Radge is a tipster........search and you will find better tipsters, I was subscribed and no longer subscribed his ASX power set up returns are a complete joke.....similar to Alvins mates returns.

Radge sells books, does tv shows and it's usually safer way to make money then being in the market live,however if you really are an ACE trader.........you don't need that crap you make your cash from the market and subscribers,after all in my eyes the only people that have the right to write a book or be praised are the ones like buffett and co.

But selling books pays the bills.

Just before I quit the US power set ups the first 3 months of 2014 was in a drawdown almost gave back all profits from 2013.

 

[NickF]

Your CFD provider might have shut its engine before the market officially closed for the week. They do this to avoid attempting to hedge the trade whilst liquidity is thinner as happens in the last hour of the New York session. Similarly, they open for business after Australia actually starts trading on Monday for the same reasons.

Consider yourself lucky that you have come across this operational wrinkle that has highlighted that CFDs are just a window into the actual market and is not actually the market.

Since this is play time, we can dream that you are an A-tier client of mine despite infecting me with foot-in-mouthitis. I am happy to help you out on this occasion and offer you a swap contract to take your position at the limit price. We'll chuck the P&L into the errors account this time on the understanding that you will remain a good client of RYFX. The paperwork will be with you shortly. We'll route the hedge trade through to Citadel to hammer it out via HFT algo.

You owe me a bottle...would you mind tickling Libor up a touch please.

RY,

I'm sorry for causing you to go over board with the comments earlier.
What would determine you to help me with a bad position? Just because what I perceive a large loss in short term may be perfectly acceptable for longer term and for good customer relations accept a small loss for your business?
How can I tickle Libor up?

Nick

 

[NickF]

Radge is a tipster........search and you will find better tipsters, I was subscribed and no longer subscribed his ASX power set up returns are a complete joke.....similar to Alvins mates returns.

Radge sells books, does tv shows and it's usually safer way to make money then being in the market live,however if you really are an ACE trader.........you don't need that crap you make your cash from the market and subscribers,after all in my eyes the only people that have the right to write a book or be praised are the ones like buffett and co.

But selling books pays the bills.

Just before I quit the US power set ups the first 3 months of 2014 was in a drawdown almost gave back all profits from 2013.

If I was wiser I would always speak only about the qualities of a person and not their defects. If I had nothing good to say, I would refrain myself from comments. But I'm not...

Nick

 

[NickF]

Radge is a tipster........search and you will find better tipsters, I was subscribed and no longer subscribed his ASX power set up returns are a complete joke.....similar to Alvins mates returns.

Radge sells books, does tv shows and it's usually safer way to make money then being in the market live,however if you really are an ACE trader.........you don't need that crap you make your cash from the market and subscribers,after all in my eyes the only people that have the right to write a book or be praised are the ones like buffett and co.

But selling books pays the bills.

Just before I quit the US power set ups the first 3 months of 2014 was in a drawdown almost gave back all profits from 2013.

I bought Nick Radge's book and I found it pleasant to read and exciting. Many years ago I bought some other trading books. I found them boring. Maybe he is not right on some topics, but I don't think he wrote the book purely to make money on it, without believing what he wrote.

Nick

 

[TheUnknown]

If I was wiser I would always speak only about the qualities of a person and not their defects. If I had nothing good to say, I would refrain myself from comments. But I'm not...

Nick

you are already very wise 100% returns and all.

buffets dreaming...

 

[DeepState]

RY,

I'm sorry for causing you to go over board with the comments earlier.
What would determine you to help me with a bad position? Just because what I perceive a large loss in short term may be perfectly acceptable for longer term and for good customer relations accept a small loss for your business?
How can I tickle Libor up?

Nick

Had to send myself into exile to repent. But I'm better for it and more appreciative of the simple things in life.

Brokers help their clients out when in a fix. Then we go out to lunch and drink all afternoon. That's what brokers do....if there is a benefit to it. In this case, your commissions to RYFX are such that we are happy to relieve you of the USD 5 yard position and take it onto our books at your limit price. We confirmed that your order was placed and understand that this is a slip due to operational matters. RYFX is appreciative of your relationship with us and regards this as a gesture of thanks.

In turn, it would be helpful if you were to regard your received rate of funding for LIBOR as 0.2% during the survey submission. However, you should only submit what you think is appropriate to you. We are only stating that it would be helpful to us in the eventuality that LIBOR were to rise to 0.2%. Should we find that LIBOR has moved closer to our desired rate, we would be pleased to extend a gift to you in the form of an all expenses paid trip to Monaco for the weekend. You can bring your wife, or a 'friend', to accompany you. Thanks for your understanding.

I trust the swap terms and paperwork are in order.

RY

 

[NickF]

you are already very wise 100% returns and all.

buffets dreaming...

No, that was my wife
I have to keep silent about the matter, if I don't want to sleep in the garrage

Nick

 

[NickF]

Had to send myself into exile to repent. But I'm better for it and more appreciative of the simple things in life.

Brokers help their clients out when in a fix. Then we go out to lunch and drink all afternoon. That's what brokers do....if there is a benefit to it. In this case, your commissions to RYFX are such that we are happy to relieve you of the USD 5 yard position and take it onto our books at your limit price. We confirmed that your order was placed and understand that this is a slip due to operational matters. RYFX is appreciative of your relationship with us and regards this as a gesture of thanks.

In turn, it would be helpful if you were to regard your received rate of funding for LIBOR as 0.2% during the survey submission. However, you should only submit what you think is appropriate to you. We are only stating that it would be helpful to us in the eventuality that LIBOR were to rise to 0.2%. Should we find that LIBOR has moved closer to our desired rate, we would be pleased to extend a gift to you in the form of an all expenses paid trip to Monaco for the weekend. You can bring your wife, or a 'friend', to accompany you. Thanks for your understanding.

I trust the swap terms and paperwork are in order.

RY

I understand now, part of it.

I am still unsure how can I influence LIBOR to change their rates...

Nick

 

[DeepState]

I bought [a] book and I found it pleasant to read and exciting. Many years ago I bought some other trading books. I found them boring. Maybe [this book] is not right on some topics, but I don't think [the author] wrote the book purely to make money on it, without believing what [they] wrote.

Nick

What do you believe now? Why?

 

[NickF]

What do you believe now? Why?

I believe he wrote the book in good faith.
I would not write a book if I did not believe (at the time) in what I write.
Later, I may change my mind, if new information becomes available.

Second reason, I like the way you react... :

Third, it is not fair to him to criticize him, without possibility to defend his view.

Nick

 

[DeepState]

I believe he wrote the book in good faith.
I would not write a book if I did not believe (at the time) in what I write.
Later, I may change my mind, if new information becomes available.

Nick

I'm actually not referring to the integrity of the author or any authors who may write on advice or matters presented as fact. For the purposes of trading, whether they believe what they wrote is pretty irrelevant. Ultimately you want whatever works.

Instead, I am asking what you believe about trading now having added to your knowledge as a result of reading an additional book. Additionally, if you wish, I am curious as to how you came to those beliefs. All of us have beliefs and the vast majority are inaccurate representations of whatever is real. I am not exempt.

You seem excited about this, which seems to imply you've come across things that were interesting to you from a trading perspective. I was wondering what they might be.

 

[NickF]

I'm actually not referring to the integrity of the author or any authors who may write on advice or matters presented as fact. For the purposes of trading, whether they believe what they wrote is pretty irrelevant. Ultimately you want whatever works.

Instead, I am asking what you believe about trading now having added to your knowledge as a result of reading an additional book. Additionally, if you wish, I am curious as to how you came to those beliefs. All of us have beliefs and the vast majority are inaccurate representations of whatever is real. I am not exempt.

You seem excited about this, which seems to imply you've come across things that were interesting to you from a trading perspective. I was wondering what they might be.

I am sorry, RY. I still haven't read the whole book. My latest comment was not based on a piece of new information, which changed my mind from what you told me. It was more of a recollection of the excitement I had when I started reading the book

I know, I disappoint you again. You are not the first one, you won't be the last one

Nick

 

[qldfrog]

Hi RY,
not sure about NickF but for me:
I enjoyed the unholy Grail.
Was my introduction to trend following/TA;
reenforced the notion of risk mitigation, use of stop loss, stopping looser, letting winner run, etc etc;
so good there;

When applied for a year with real hard won dollars
and after refining my parameters and heavy backtesting to "ensure' it would work: not so good;actually bad!

the recent variability /jitter make me buy/sell far too frequently; my win/loss ratio went down (more losers than when i was selecting stock with "guts"
I entered the market just before a small down trend, had to sell at a small loss most of my initial portfolio and then buy back far too late as I was waiting for my MA to reach its trigger value
in short a nice loss in a market going up....
I believe this is mainly due to the jittery situation we have had lately which did not fit well with my parameters optimised on the last 20years or so;
--
I wanted strict rules, a nice black/white tool-> did not happen;
do i regret buying the book, no!
I have a good feeling about nick and would be happy sharing a cuppa with him.
just my 2c experience

 

[DeepState]

Hi RY,
not sure about NickF but for me:
I enjoyed the unholy Grail.
Was my introduction to trend following/TA;
reenforced the notion of risk mitigation, use of stop loss, stopping looser, letting winner run, etc etc;
so good there;

When applied for a year with real hard won dollars
and after refining my parameters and heavy backtesting to "ensure' it would work: not so good;actually bad!

the recent variability /jitter make me buy/sell far too frequently; my win/loss ratio went down (more losers than when i was selecting stock with "guts"
I entered the market just before a small down trend, had to sell at a small loss most of my initial portfolio and then buy back far too late as I was waiting for my MA to reach its trigger value
in short a nice loss in a market going up....
I believe this is mainly due to the jittery situation we have had lately which did not fit well with my parameters optimised on the last 20years or so;
--
I wanted strict rules, a nice black/white tool-> did not happen;
do i regret buying the book, no!
I have a good feeling about nick and would be happy sharing a cuppa with him.
just my 2c experience

I think it's super important to manage risk. Without a doubt. Most of my thinking and efforts in investment are to mitigate losses and to size positions and exposures in a way that achieves desired outcomes. Further, it is important not to underestimate the psychological strain that trading/investment puts a person under. Certain [unnamed] books and authors have referred to this feature and they are correct in doing so. Any place you can ascertain more expertise on these two areas is to be valued.

Many TA techniques that I have read about in ASF and in other places produce strategies that either work in trending or reverting markets. The task is to discover which market you are in and, if trend-based, which way the trend will point. You were stung applying a trend based system to a reverting market. Making trading profit is exceedingly hard. Prop traders are amongst the highest paid people around. In making the attempt to produce systems to do so, many overlays and parameters are available to systems of any invention. Some mix of these will always work for any market condition or any stock or group of stocks. The problem is with parameter instability. If trading with no edge, these parameters will float around all over the place and produce a poor outcome. If you are able to discern whether you are in a trend or not it is instructive to know whether your strategy beats a pure buy/sell-hold.

In my view, fine tuning strategies with overlays is an indication of overfit if not accompanied with strong economic rationale. A trend indicator for markets as an overlay, for example, will show great result/backtests in a market which produces trends. Yet, if you look back further than 20 years, choppy markets existed and there is no reason to believe that such conditions will not come to the fore again. These can last a decade or more. The 1990s and 2000s were driven partly by a hyper credit bubble which is now deflating. This is a potential trend breaker for a market trend following system - for example.

Any source of learning, whether you agree or not offers an opportunity to enhance your abilities. I'm glad you found value in your reading and feel warmly towards the author.

 

[minwa]

To me it is more about defining the time frame than trend following vs mean reversion. Anyone who makes a profit has to follow a trend - for that specific time frame. When you buy on retracements on an "up trending" stock, you are buying after the short term down trend has reversed and the short term up trend has shifted up, within a longer/intermediate term up trend. Breakout momentum trading is a form of trend following just as "mean reversion" trades is another form of trend following.

If you don't follow the trend for the timeframe you're trading, you're simply not following where the price is going and will not make profits.