Is a profit of 100% per year good enough?

[NickF]

Hi Nick

1. You must know that doing so produces zero edge less expenses and spread. Your expected profit from flipping coins like this is zero...and then you pay for the privilege.

2. All these rules don't convert lack of prediction into sustainably positive outcomes. Setting stops and profit points does not make money. Insight does. All this stop and limit stuff does is change the distribution of the way you get random returns. Do you get lots of small losses and a few big wins? Or do you get 50/50 and wins/losses roughly equally distributed? In the end, without an edge, they end up at the same point....zero less expenses.

If Nick Radge made money sustainably, he did so because he had an insight. All the rest is just risk management and 'bending the distribution'. Alternatives to this include:
- He was bloody lucky. A NASA Monkey who can write books...I have a couple myself.
- He made money by market making, but writes books and trains people on technical trading because that sells books and gets people along to his training company;
- He's just making it up.

His book keeps getting mentioned as some sort of bible in this place. I guess I better read it and see if he has any mojo. I have worked with a ton of very successful investors...only one of the massive bunch used anything like the stuff talked about in this place. He was a fixed income guy and he used Bollinger Bands. I have never seen anyone including our dealers use support/resistance, flags, candle sticks,... although some stops are used in an aggregate portfolio sense. I'd never heard of anything like a 20% Flipper or Grail for example.

3. Getting rich quick is better than getting there slowly. The point, though, is to get rich at all.
"I've been rich and I've been poor. Rich is better" - Sophie Tucker.

4. FOREX is generally regarded as the toughest market to make money in. Even though there are hedgers and central banks in there who are not profit motivated, it's not as if they intend to lose money either and their presence does not actually make it easier to garner profit. But their accessibility via the CFD guys and futures brokers and small spreads make them attractive for retail speculators. Retail participation in the market has risen and is around 3% of the market now.

Cheers

Thank you RY for all the comments.

Nick

 

[minwa]

Hi Minwa,

Do you use Amibroker? Do you do backtesting? Do you have any system which you can backtest and it gives positive results when you run it for, let's say 10 years in various markets, without changing any parameters (US, AU).

It is true that I'm a beginner and have little experience, but until I've heard of him, I didn't know about any Technical Analysis systems that return in backtesting a good 10...25% per annum.
It's true that I have not used the system, not even to pick stocks for the ASX game - the system finds stocks quite rarely and its profits are generated in a matter of months sometimes - so I find the system improper for the game, which lasts three months.

I don't know if anybody checked the system in real world and if it works, but so far, this is the system I have the highest confidence in. I understand it is similar with the system used by the turtle traders, but much simpler. It has a strict strategy and it performs reasonably well without changing any parameters when going in different markets. Here is a screenshot of performance in for ASX (stocks from the game). I slightly modified the formulas, but I rather added some extra restrictive conditions (minimum liquidity and minimum volume).

The screenshot is a backtest between 01/01/2000 to 01/05/2010. If I run it until 01/05/2014, it indicates a total equity of $640500.

View attachment 57974

Cheers,
Nick

Hey Nick thanks for posting that.

That system is not really robust, you can clearly it just follows the general share market. Overlay the equity with SPX or XJO and you can see the correlation. 2000 to about 2003 it was pretty much breakeven while shares were in bear market. Then it just followed shares great bull market until 2008 bear market where the equity just falls with the bear market.

Back tests ignores the trader psychology fact, would you have kept trading after 2000-2003, a period of THREE years where you made some equity gains then lost it back and it just chopped around breakeven. I believe you will need real faith to keep trading such a system for 3 years not making anything before it can realize its potential in the bull market. Drawdown of 31% is pretty high too, you will also need real faith to trade through that. Easy for back test as in hindsight you can see it recovered with the bull market. What if the bull market didn't come in stocks ? Would you have the patience to trade through the drawdown for a few more years ?

You can see why I don't like theoretical back test. I don't use Amibroker or code systems as I don't use indicators and my psychology cannot be coded into a back test, I know I personally cannot stand trade such a system where draw down (to me sideways equity is also draw down) periods are that long.

I posted my real accounts trading results for this year and last year in other threads you can look that up. To me real results and theoretical back test are very different things. I'm sure any vendor still trades or at least traded any systems they sell with real money, if they cannot share their results then that shoots up red flags and will definitely not be getting my money. If they don't back the system by putting their own money to the system to trade it themselves, I will not trade it even if they gave me the system for free.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Back tests ignores the trader psychology fact, would you have kept trading after 2000-2003, a period of THREE years where you made some equity gains then lost it back and it just chopped around breakeven.

You can see why I don't like theoretical back test. I don't use Amibroker or code systems as I don't use indicators and my psychology cannot be coded into a back test, I know I personally cannot stand trade such a system where draw down (to me sideways equity is also draw down) periods are that long.

Yes that is the reality of these backtests, especially so far back in time when survivorship bias really kicks in. I backtest and forward test for two years or less from present time for some semblance of a possible real outcome. The result data doesn't have the big returns and mountainous equity charts but we want to compile systems that are at least a guide to possible positive outcomes and I believe the closer to present time test reduces the falsity of survivorship. No dream weaving necessary.

 

[NickF]

Hey Nick thanks for posting that.

That system is not really robust, you can clearly it just follows the general share market. Overlay the equity with SPX or XJO and you can see the correlation. 2000 to about 2003 it was pretty much breakeven while shares were in bear market. Then it just followed shares great bull market until 2008 bear market where the equity just falls with the bear market.

Back tests ignores the trader psychology fact, would you have kept trading after 2000-2003, a period of THREE years where you made some equity gains then lost it back and it just chopped around breakeven. I believe you will need real faith to keep trading such a system for 3 years not making anything before it can realize its potential in the bull market. Drawdown of 31% is pretty high too, you will also need real faith to trade through that. Easy for back test as in hindsight you can see it recovered with the bull market. What if the bull market didn't come in stocks ? Would you have the patience to trade through the drawdown for a few more years ?

You can see why I don't like theoretical back test. I don't use Amibroker or code systems as I don't use indicators and my psychology cannot be coded into a back test, I know I personally cannot stand trade such a system where draw down (to me sideways equity is also draw down) periods are that long.

I posted my real accounts trading results for this year and last year in other threads you can look that up. To me real results and theoretical back test are very different things. I'm sure any vendor still trades or at least traded any systems they sell with real money, if they cannot share their results then that shoots up red flags and will definitely not be getting my money. If they don't back the system by putting their own money to the system to trade it themselves, I will not trade it even if they gave me the system for free.

Hi Minwa,

Thanks for sharing your opinion about the system, you offered me a fresh view on it. There is obviously a correlation between the performance of the market and the performance of the system. I would be surprised not to see a correlation between a strong year and good returns (especially for long trading).

Your comments about psychology of the trader are indeed critical for the success or failure of the system. Richard Dennis said to his students that he could post in the newspaper his proven, successful trading method (and all people who used it strictly back then, apparently made like 80% pa). And despite this, probably nobody would have used it, because they would have not trusted the method.

You're right about the drawdown, which is most likely unacceptably high to most people and probably a way should be found to avoid such a high drawdown, even if it will probably impact significantly the overall profit. As it is, the method shows an average of 21% pa.

Of course, some people have their own systems, which are net superior to this one. Probably nothing can beat a good brain. But there are also many other people who lose more money than they put in and this can happen for years and years, if they use a bad method or no method. So, considering this is a simple method and does not require any research, I still like it. Of course, if I find something better, I will go for that.

About big drawdowns - my superannuation fund dropped about 35% during the GFC, if I remember correctly. I calculated back then, it should increase like 50% in order to get back to the funds I had earlier. And I was wondering, how come the experts at the helm of the fund did not do anything to avoid such a big drowdown. I was explained that their strategy is to keep the money in for the long term, no matter what happens, because long term, there is always a profit to be made. Even I could probably do better than that, by buying 20 good stocks. I saw about two months ago an interview with a guy who publishes yearly a book about good stocks in Australia and he described how his system picks the stocks, based on strict requirements - every year there are about 100 stocks that come up and they outperform the XAO, XJO, etc.

I will definitely look to see your posted results, I am very interested to see what your performance is.

Cheers,
Nick

 

[NickF]

4. FOREX is generally regarded as the toughest market to make money in. Even though there are hedgers and central banks in there who are not profit motivated, it's not as if they intend to lose money either and their presence does not actually make it easier to garner profit. But their accessibility via the CFD guys and futures brokers and small spreads make them attractive for retail speculators. Retail participation in the market has risen and is around 3% of the market now.
Cheers

Hi RY,

I applied all kind or random strategies, based on guessing and luck and so far I was able to come back in black in my virtual Forex account. I am usually playing with small amounts, around 10k. When I had higher losses, I was more aggressive, tried with 100k, but I lost quite a bit really fast. I'll see if I manage to keep my trades up - it doesn't matter if the profit it's small, I'm just curious if I can show some consistency. I started my Forex account on 04/05/2014 and up to today, I've done 98 trades. Some of them were automated trades, which didn't go too well. On other trades, I wanted to do some things and ended up doing something else because I didn't know how the software works.

Arguably, I am still not an expert at Forex - but I am proud I discovered all by myself that XAU means gold, after I noticed the symbol XAG
I am yet to discover what CHF means, I wreckon is some sort of Chinese Franc...

Cheers,
Nick

 

[DJG]

CHF = Swiss Franc

 

[NickF]

CHF = Swiss Franc

Thank you Dangaff,

Now I have all the information I need to become a successful Forex trader.

Nick

 

[CanOz]

How about we discuss the 20% Flipper?... happy to post some equity curves or stats from this. Its been quite successful since released, it is a long only trend following system. Seems pretty robust to me.

 

[CanOz]

I have a report from Nick on the US Power Setups, done on Stator showing closed trade results. I'm not going to post it as i don't have permission. But anyone can ask Nick for trade reports. The last time i was on collective2 the Flipper and the stats were there.

The subscription to the US power setups costs me like 20 bucks a months, i get FX futures and equities. There are no secrets in the stuff, its not a holy grail and the returns are just solid profits OVER TIME. Sounds like you've been burned Minwa? Did you get into a draw-down or something? I can understand that you'd be upset, so was my wife when another managed account we have went into drawdown, it happens....

 

[craft]

How about we discuss the 20% Flipper?... happy to post some equity curves or stats from this. Its been quite successful since released, it is a long only trend following system. Seems pretty robust to me.

What will cause it to be profitable in the future?

 

[CanOz]

What will cause it to be profitable in the future?

The logic behind it is very robust and its not curve fit. Its pretty simple, for an equity to become a multibagger it must first increase 20% in value. If it has done this after a 20% decline in value it must be a strong stock. Throw in an index filter and some exit logic and it becomes a very robust trend following system for End of Day trading. Most of Nick's systems are based on very simple logic that stands the test of time. Its tests well over all the data i have (20 years+) and its also walked forward very well for the last two years. Nothing wrong with that.

Now lets think of what might cause it to be less than ideal or unprofitable?
-no trend (think ASX recently)
-no growth in small caps
-range bound for years

 

[Joe Blow]

DeepState has decided to withdraw his two earlier two posts in this thread. Unfortunately, this has created a cascade effect that has resulted in the removal of almost all subsequent posts, as each post in turn quoted a previous post that was removed for quoting another removed post.

However, please note that all content has simply been removed from view, and if anyone would like a copy of the content of any of their removed posts I am more than happy to supply it.

 

[minwa]

I have a report from Nick on the US Power Setups, done on Stator showing closed trade results. I'm not going to post it as i don't have permission. But anyone can ask Nick for trade reports. The last time i was on collective2 the Flipper and the stats were there.

The subscription to the US power setups costs me like 20 bucks a months, i get FX futures and equities. There are no secrets in the stuff, its not a holy grail and the returns are just solid profits OVER TIME. Sounds like you've been burned Minwa? Did you get into a draw-down or something? I can understand that you'd be upset, so was my wife when another managed account we have went into drawdown, it happens....

What does my trading have to do with Radge ? You're sounding like Alvin in the Kertcher thread. Sounds like someone cannot face facts I have posted and started personal insults ?

More than happy to trade live with you, you can trade Radge's system I will post my trades. I can back my system with $300k.

 

[CanOz]

What does my trading have to do with Radge ? You're sounding like Alvin in the Kertcher thread. Sounds like someone cannot face facts I have posted and started personal insults ?

Personal insults?

More than happy to trade live with you, you can trade Radge's system I will post my trades. I can back my system with $300k.

I only trade the power setups and as I've said on another thread i've cleaned out my accounts in case we need to pay cash for the property we bought....so sorry will have to decline the trading challenge. Maybe in a few years time Minwa

but....

What does my trading have to do with Radge ?

and then...

More than happy to trade live with you

What the?

 

[minwa]

So you conclude I am in a draw down when that has nothing to do with this discussion ?

I've asked before and I will ask it again,

1. Why is his audited results not publicly available ? You mention you saw it on collective2 and have it personally but why can I not easily find it ? So if anyone wants his results they have to go through you to get it ? If you're going to sell something at least back it up with results.
2. Closing his hedge fund down due to "regulatory increases" is exactly something Kertcher would use for his fund. Did he hide his collective2 results due to "regulatory concerns" ??
3. He markets heavily through internet marketing campaigns based on emotional selling, Google Adwords.

So instead of responding to all that you ask if I am in a draw down, as if that has something to do with this ? You also said something about Radge's lawyers chasing people. Right...

 

[banco]

The logic behind it is very robust and its not curve fit. Its pretty simple, for an equity to become a multibagger it must first increase 20% in value. If it has done this after a 20% decline in value it must be a strong stock. Throw in an index filter and some exit logic and it becomes a very robust trend following system for End of Day trading. Most of Nick's systems are based on very simple logic that stands the test of time. Its tests well over all the data i have (20 years+) and its also walked forward very well for the last two years. Nothing wrong with that.

Now lets think of what might cause it to be less than ideal or unprofitable?
-no trend (think ASX recently)
-no growth in small caps
-range bound for years

His systems only seem to work in a raging bull market (admittedly you can say that about many systems).

 

[CanOz]

1. Why is his audited results not publicly available ? You mention you saw it on collective2 and have it personally but why can I not easily find it ? So if anyone wants his results they have to go through you to get it ? If you're going to sell something at least back it up with results.

Just write to Nick and ask for the closed trade results. I don't know if he'll give them to you or not, but i know all the members get access to these when you request it. By the way, who else offer audited results?

2. Closing his hedge fund down due to "regulatory increases" is exactly something Kertcher would use for his fund. Did he hide his collective2 results due to "regulatory concerns" ??

Nick is well respected in the Australian Trading community, including the AATA, you can hardly compare him to this other guy...

3. He markets heavily through internet marketing campaigns based on emotional selling, Google Adwords.

So does Jigsaw Trading, are they bad too?

So instead of responding to all that you ask if I am in a draw down, as if that has something to do with this ? You also said something about Radge's lawyers chasing people. Right...

You seem to have a grudge Minwa, that was my feeling. My point was that one needs to consider things carefully when you start to try and drag someones name through the mud, Joe gets in enough trouble here as it is.

 

[DeepState]

... for an equity to become a multibagger it must first increase 20% in value. If it has done this after a 20% decline in value it must be a strong stock. Throw in an index filter and some exit logic and it becomes a very robust trend following system for End of Day trading.

Back from self-imposed exile after a period of cleansing and celibacy.

Hi CanOz, what do an index filter and exit logic look like? This is the second time I've come across the flipper so I'm actually curious about it.

Hope things are cool with you, btw.

Cheers

RY

 

[minwa]

I have a grudge ? Read the thread first, NickF brought him up not me. I simply analysed what I thought of him based on what is available. All the response I got was "I will be sued" or "you shall not slander him" without anything further to be added to respond to my points made.

If we were to use your logic then all the people slamming Alvin/Kertcher on Kertcher's thread are in the "wrong" too ? Why do you not stand up for them. Simply because you dismiss Platinum Pursuits as I dismiss Radge (and Kertcher). You think everyone on that thread have a grudge for Kertcher ?

I thought this was a forum for discussion. Quote me on one post where I have not presented any information and simply slandered him.

This is turning into a joke, this will be the last post I make on this thread on Radge, releasing my err "draw down grudge". Anyone going through this can make up their own mind.

Still more than happy for you to trade the Power setups live on paper. You don't have to commit funds and more people can be informed of Radge's systems in forward testing.

 

[DeepState]

His systems only seem to work in a raging bull market (admittedly you can say that about many systems).

So the question becomes...how do you know you will be in one as you trade? You need evidence that you are in one first...and then it takes evidence to realize you are either still in one or the regime has switched. So you actually need at least three things for this to work: Identify a trend...the trend needs to continue...and for you to remain of the belief that the trend is continuing. Any link that fails there knocks the trade out.

I think the best benchmark is buy-hold for the strategy period. That helps to break out the difference between trend identification (have you successfully identified a trend?) and whether the strategy is actually adding any value (measured in any way you like...absolute, MDD, etc..) to the simplest decision rule available.