Iron Ore

[sileverback]

HI
I trade the asx200 index and iron ore is often a large mover/impact on the index. I've tried to access various web sites to track futures prices reliably but got frustrated with outages, unreliable feeds etc . like for Singapore and Dalian exchanges. This is about 12 months ago.
Have things changed? Can you recommend something highly reliable free or paid to track daily trading. Is the Dalian the best market to track for correlation to 'iron ore' moves in the Australian market

 

[Joules MM1]

HI
I trade the asx200 index and iron ore is often a large mover/impact on the index. I've tried to access various web sites to track futures prices reliably but got frustrated with outages, unreliable feeds etc . like for Singapore and Dalian exchanges. This is about 12 months ago.
Have things changed? Can you recommend something highly reliable free or paid to track daily trading. Is the Dalian the best market to track for correlation to 'iron ore' moves in the Australian market

take a look here (?)

Ironore — TradingView

ironore — Check out the trading ideas, strategies, opinions, analytics at absolutely no cost!

www.tradingview.com

 

[basilio]

Upward pressure on iron ore prices is still rising. Shipping delays are one trigger for the latest jump but overall world demand for steel has jumped sharply as well. All of the iron ore sellers registered sharp increase in SP today

Iron ore price jumps as Brazil, Australia shipments delayed

Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell by 4m tonnes compared to previous week.

www.mining.com

 

[greggles]

The Iron Ore boom may have quite a bit further to go yet: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/market-may-be-underestimating-iron-ore-boom-20210421-p57l2m

With Brazil having supply issues, the most efficient and profitable ASX-listed iron ore miners should see continued share price gains in the short term.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

On Wednesday the price of 65% Fe Brazil fines was a record $US221.90 a tonne, up 12.6% from $US197.10 a tonne at the start of April.

That saw the price margin over 62% Fe fines hit a record $US33.67 a tonne on Wednesday, up from $US29.50 a tonne on 01 April.

The premium over 58% Fe fines on Wednesday was also a record .... a massive $US60 a tonne.

In the past year the price of all three iron ore types has more than doubled.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The Iron Ore boom may have quite a bit further to go yet: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/market-may-be-underestimating-iron-ore-boom-20210421-p57l2m

With Brazil having supply issues, the most efficient and profitable ASX-listed iron ore miners should see continued share price gains in the short term.

I'm heavily riding the Iron Ore boom. I'm not as bullish as Chanticleer but, hey, the horse is running well and the punters in the stands are cheering and waving their arms about.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

On Wednesday the price of 65% Fe Brazil fines was a record $US221.90 a tonne, up 12.6% from $US197.10 a tonne at the start of April.

That saw the price margin over 62% Fe fines hit a record $US33.67 a tonne on Wednesday, up from $US29.50 a tonne on 01 April.

The premium over 58% Fe fines on Wednesday was also a record .... a massive $US60 a tonne.

In the past year the price of all three iron ore types has more than doubled.

Yep, because it is because the discount or premium is based on percentages, as the bench mark price grows the premiums and discounts get large in dollar terms.

for example a 10% discount on $100 is $10, but 10% of $200 is $20.

so the aren’t actually “record high” discounts or premiums when you think of them as a percentage, they are within the range of fluctuations seen over the years, if fact a few years ago the discounts were about 30% at one stage, much higher than today.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Yep, because it is because the discount or premium is based on percentages, as the bench mark price grows the premiums and discounts get large in dollar terms. ... for example a 10% discount on $100 is $10, but 10% of $200 is $20.

so the aren’t actually “record high” discounts or premiums when you think of them as a percentage, they are within the range of fluctuations seen over the years, if fact a few years ago the discounts were about 30% at one stage, much higher than today.

..... Some commentators in China believe there’s a good chance the price of 65% Fe fines could reach $US230 a tonne in the near future.

There’s a shortage – Brazil can’t produce enough of the product to meet rising demand from Chinese mills which want the higher quality ore to reduce pollution (it requires less sintering before being used in blast furnaces) and the yield is higher than using 62% Fe fines or the 58% product. Brazilian analysts expect Vale’s production to pick up this month (as it did in March when Brazilian iron ore exports surged 32.6% from low February)

While there’s tens of millions of tonnes of 62% and 58% (and 62% Fe low silica and a couple of other one-off grades) in Chinese stockyards at ports and steel mills, there’s less than one million tonnes of the 65% of the Carajas (Brazil) fines at Chinese ports.

This shortage, plus hefty profit margins for most Chinese mills and the continuing crack down on pollution and capacity means the mills want as much of the 65% product as possible. They are currently being forced to blend it with the 62% product from Australia to maintain blast furnace campaigns and maximise the yield of crude steel from each tonne.

The high profit margins mean the mills can afford to offer more for the 65% product from Brazil. That has seen an expansion in the premium for 65% over 62% and 58% product from Australia and other countries.

Vale the Big Winner in Ore Wars - ShareCafe

For all the talk about how BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are doing well in the current iron ore price boom, the clear winner is the recovering Brazilian giant Vale.

www.sharecafe.com.au

 

[basilio]

Well the iron ore miners (and their shareholders ) are making out like bandits at the moment.

And of course the Government is getting an excellent fillup to its tax take - just in time for a budget.
Shame the unemployed will just have to starve off into the sunset.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

that is for 62 Fe

 

[Sean K]

Are iron ore plays turning into a short, or are Treasury and Bloomberg dreaming with pullbacks to $55 or $120 in nine months?

 

[greggles]

It's difficult to predict, but I think a price decline of that magnitude is unlikely and Treasury is underestimating the 2022 spot price for their own purposes. I suppose it's better to be conservative in case things do go pear shaped.

The iron ore spot price going forward will depend largely on supply and global economic growth. Will governments try to stimulate growth through massive infrastructure projects? Will iron ore production catch up with demand? Too many variables to accurately predict how things are going to play out.

 

[Value Collector]

Are iron ore plays turning into a short, or are Treasury and Bloomberg dreaming with pullbacks to $55 or $120 in nine months?

View attachment 124142

$120 is pretty likely eventually, who knows when though, $55 is just a conservative number used for budgeting.

eg, if you are doing your household budget it’s best to work it out on there basis of not getting over time or a Christmas bonus, it’s better to surprise and delight than shock and disappoint.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's difficult to predict, but I think a price decline of that magnitude is unlikely and Treasury is underestimating the 2022 spot price for their own purposes. I suppose it's better to be conservative in case things do go pear shaped.

The iron ore spot price going forward will depend largely on supply and global economic growth. Will governments try to stimulate growth through massive infrastructure projects? Will iron ore production catch up with demand? Too many variables to accurately predict how things are going to play out.

$120 is pretty likely eventually, who knows when though, $55 is just a conservative number used for budgeting.

eg, if you are doing your household budget it’s best to work it out on there basis of not getting over time or a Christmas bonus, it’s better to surprise and delight than shock and disappoint.

These projections I would agree are for budgeting purposes.

Who would have thought Iron Ore 12 months ago would now be double it's price then?

Saying it will drop to $55 is as likely as saying it will rise to $400 imo.

Ask the virus.

gg

 

[over9k]

Classic underpromise/overdeliver.

Now next year when it's not nearly that bad they can be all "things are much better than anticipated (thanks to us)" and if they go pear shaped, then they foresaw it (so are obviously so competent as to be able to tell these things).

It's politics, nothing more.

 

[Gunnerguy]

As we all know there is risk in all we do, especially in investments. With the discussion on IO price, started by Josh, I am asking myself the following ...

With the current animosity between Beijing and Canberra what chance is there that Beijing will cancel/reduce the purchases of IO from Australia as this has occurred with other Australian exports. We can all discuss the various aspects of growth/vaccines/ geopolitics/commodity growth/stimulus/warehouse capacity/trade/FE content, however, I think this is an extremely important question not only for our IO Companies, but the economy and Government tax revenue. To make it simpler .....

'What chance do you think that Beijing will enact some political trade 'action' (ban, reduce, cancel) on the importing of Australia Iron Ore, that will have an impact on the Iron Ore price ?

Simply answer a percentage (I couldn't find a poll facility on ASF), so we can all see what 'the community' think.

60%.

Gunnerguy

 

[over9k]

As we all know there is risk in all we do, especially in investments. With the discussion on IO price, started by Josh, I am asking myself the following ...

With the current animosity between Beijing and Canberra what chance is there that Beijing will cancel/reduce the purchases of IO from Australia as this has occurred with other Australian exports. We can all discuss the various aspects of growth/vaccines/ geopolitics/commodity growth/stimulus/warehouse capacity/trade/FE content, however, I think this is an extremely important question not only for our IO Companies, but the economy and Government tax revenue. To make it simpler .....

'What chance do you think that Beijing will enact some political trade 'action' (ban, reduce, cancel) on the importing of Australia Iron Ore, that will have an impact on the Iron Ore price ?

Simply answer a percentage (I couldn't find a poll facility on ASF), so we can all see what 'the community' think.

60%.

Gunnerguy

This is what I meant about political risk GG - how do you quantify it?

They had to run rolling blackouts and bring in diesel generators when they blocked the coal imports so that kind of shows the level they'll go to.


This is also why I hate a lot of quant analysis - there's just too many things that you simply cannot quantify. You'd have to have an ear to the door of a lot of closed-door meetings in canberra to really have a proper clue what's going to happen next.

Unlike using diesel generators in place of coal, I don't see a substitute for iron ore for china. Having said that, it wouldn't take much of it being cut off for australia to REALLY feel the pain.

In short, it's something that BOTH sides are really sensitive to and probably the last line that the chinese government will cross - if they do something with iron ore then NOTHING is off the table from there on out.

Watch this space!

 

[Gunnerguy]

This is what I meant about political risk GG - how do you quantify it?

They had to run rolling blackouts and bring in diesel generators when they blocked the coal imports so that kind of shows the level they'll go to.


This is also why I hate a lot of quant analysis - there's just too many things that you simply cannot quantify. You'd have to have an ear to the door of a lot of closed-door meetings in canberra to really have a proper clue what's going to happen next.

Unlike using diesel generators in place of coal, I don't see a substitute for iron ore for china. Having said that, it wouldn't take much of it being cut off for australia to REALLY feel the pain.

In short, it's something that BOTH sides are really sensitive to and probably the last line that the chinese government will cross - if they do something with iron ore then NOTHING is off the table from there on out.

Watch this space!

Percentage ??

 

[over9k]

I can't give you one, that's the problem lol.

I could guess one and say 50/50, but that's no help at all.

 

[Gunnerguy]

I can't give you one, that's the problem lol.

I could guess one and say 50/50, but that's no help at all.

Over9k
That’s the whole point !
It’s difficult for all, and no one knows the answer. Just trying to get a ‘subjective’ gauge from the community.
It’s like an HR job interview question, there’s no right or wrong answer, and answer.
I’m 60%, and your 50%. No questions, no reasoning, just wondering.
I just think it’s a valid question in the current climate for us all to consider.
Gunnerguy