IPL - Incitec Pivot

[prawn_86]

With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world.
I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer

While i can see what your saying, i think it would take a long time for any sort of 'flow' for somethings as far removed as that.

And whats to say that people eat more when they are unemployed?

Drawing a long bow imo...

 

[chops_a_must]

I think a lot of you guys are missing the point.

The issue seems to be the short term funding.

I said at the time, IPL was being a charity for DXL, and it looks like I was right.

Horrible decision. Absolutely horrible. Overpaid for a crap asset that has loaded them up with debt.

 

[gav]

I've had my eye on this one for a little while now. Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).

After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym. Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go. Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.

My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!

 

[Julia]

With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world.
I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer

You might like to offer some facts in support of your contention that people eat more if they are unemployed. I hope you weren't depending on this as a reason to buy.

There's a fair few steps in the chain of production from the use of fertiliser to the plate of the consumer.

I've had my eye on this one for a little while now. Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).

After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym. Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go. Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.

My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!

Gav, can you say why you feel this stock is likely to revisit its previous highs, other than hoping it will do as well for you as it has for your parents?

Have you considered, e.g. the effect continued drought will have?

 

[gav]

Julia, I grew up on a dairy farm and know the affects of drought. I believe IPL has been over-sold, and will bounce back somewhat. If it bounces back relatively fast, I will sell for a quick profit. If not, I am prepared to hold.

 

[michael_selway]

I've had my eye on this one for a little while now. Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).

After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym. Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go. Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.

My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!

Hi doesn anyone own IPl and also have ETRADE but before the split

If so, does it appears that IPLDA has NOTbeen updated for you still as at today?

thx

MS

 

[THE BUZZ]

Hey guys, breaking my cherry finally and posting, hav'nt been following Ipl 's travels since split commenced, any reasons for the sharp declines apart from overall market negativity?
not holding much but considering picking up some more if price falls further after the drop in the states this morning. [which i'm assuming is already fact]
dow down 3.00%, cheers.

 

[rthakkar]

You might like to offer some facts in support of your contention that people eat more if they are unemployed. I hope you weren't depending on this as a reason to buy.

There's a fair few steps in the chain of production from the use of fertiliser to the plate of the consumer.

Intake of veggies will increase in order to save cash (meat is generally expensive). this works in favor of Incitec

Share prices will reflect this once we have been in slow growth economy for more than a year now, the trend will eventually start emerging the profit numbers will speak for themselves.

 

[Julia]

Hey guys, breaking my cherry finally and posting, hav'nt been following Ipl 's travels since split commenced, any reasons for the sharp declines apart from overall market negativity?
not holding much but considering picking up some more if price falls further after the drop in the states this morning. [which i'm assuming is already fact]
dow down 3.00%, cheers.

I sold mine at about $180 (equiv. to about $9 with the split)a few months ago after reading more than one analyst report about global growing seasons being over for the time being, and the ammonium nitrate price having peaked for this cycle.

Also had some concerns about the Dyno Nobel acquisition which didn't appear to bring the benefits anticipated.

Gav, a long term hold would seem to make good sense. Good luck.

 

[chops_a_must]

Intake of veggies will increase in order to save cash (meat is generally expensive). this works in favor of Incitec

Share prices will reflect this once we have been in slow growth economy for more than a year now, the trend will eventually start emerging the profit numbers will speak for themselves.

Apart from a big input in meat being grain feed?

I got stopped out luckily some time ago, and sold off the free carry.

They were stupid to go after DXL.

I think we'll see this about 3.50, but timing is more important as they now have to find some way to finance their DXL projects in this market.

Is probably 12 months away from being looked at for me...

 

[Rastan]

man - i am copping an absolute shellacking on this stock - it was recommended to me about 3 months ago at 163 - now its almost half that....

 

[robert toms]

I do not hold..but have watched this one for a long while.
Do you know of any adverse events or reports that have resulted in drop in share price?
Maybe just lack in market confidence ?
Perhaps just profit taking ?

Any ideas ?

 

[robert toms]

I have just scanned thru one of their presentations,they seem to place a lot of faith in the continued demand from China and India.
Perhaps there is a fear that this demand is slowing ,or not as assured as was the case only weeks ago ?

 

[tcoates]

I am a holder of IPL shares also. Not sure on the fundamentals.

Putting that aside for the moment...

I can see that it has gone as low ($3.91) as the monthly pivot point (support) today (at $3.88) and presently back above $4.

Will be interesting to see where it ends the day.

Someone with more knowledge than I can explain the application of these (probably wrong word but "longer term") pivot points.

Tim

 

[gav]

I dont think it has much to do with the fundamentals, more so the market sentiment as a whole. This one shot up to $200 very quickly, and its falling just as fast. I bought Monday at close and Im down 20% already. Maybe I should start a thread called "Gavs picks", that way you guys can short whatever I buy, you'll make a fortune

 

[Julia]

Maybe price of ammonium nitrate has something to do with the falling SP?
I think the fundamentals of IPL may be more complicated than first appear, given different weather conditions and growing seasons around the world.

Or, as Gav says, it might be just a reflection of the overall market.

 

[chops_a_must]

I dont think it has much to do with the fundamentals

Rubbish.

If you read my posts above, and a quick check through their recent announcements it appears that they are having problems with their short term debt.

That is the real issue. They can't fund what they wanted to do with DXL, which has rooted this company.

 

[tcoates]

Or....

Incitec Pivot (IPL) struggling today – down 9% to 423c – on the back of shares in US rival Mosaic falling 41% overnight after warning the price of phosphate was coming off after spiking in previous quarters. Macquarie Equities maintain their Outperform recommendation on the stock and their 944c target price – 123% above the current share price.

(source http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/57682/Midday_Market_Roundup_03102008.html)

more (related) info here

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aMUHCaNwsBTU&refer=australia

Other latest info from

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=85902

A A$1.68 billion three-year revolver for Incitec Pivot and its subsidiaries Incitec Pivot Finance Australia, Incitec Pivot US Holdings and Incitec Pivot Finance LLC has been sealed via mandated arrangers and bookrunners Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Bank of Australia, Royal Bank of Scotland and Westpac.

Final allocations saw the bookrunners contributing A$250 million apiece. Coming in as participants were Credit Suisse and UBS, lending A$150 million each, while Citi provided A$130 million. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Rabobank took A$75 million apiece and ANZ and HSBC gave A$50 million each.

Proceeds are to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes.

Tim

 

[robert toms]

I just watched nightly Business News from US on SBS and they highlighted fertilizer shares.They had all taken a decent fall last night,on slowing demand for their products.

 

[Miner]

I just watched nightly Business News from US on SBS and they highlighted fertilizer shares.They had all taken a decent fall last night,on slowing demand for their products.

Thanks
Marcus in Marcus today has heavily recommended IPL even after it fell and lower fertiliser demand

Tuesday will be a watchful one following what happens at US Senate tonight and banks are going to meet on Tuesday in Australia too

Regards