IPL - Incitec Pivot

[sammy84]

They have gone into a trading halt as it is preparing a capital raising. It doesn't feel like that ago when they announced that capital raising wouldn't be necessary.....

 

[ndpjai]

Hi all

My first post.

What do u think with record profit, record dividend and the 5 for13 offer with DAP prices just falling from the sky?

Pls post ur thoughts.

Jai

 

[KFC soup]

the offer price is at $2.50 that is substantially lower than the currenty market price.
does anyone think it'll fall to around 2.50-2.60 level?

but at least now they have enough money to pay dividents

though i understand how the explosive market might be down a little, but how is the fertiliser business not carrying things through?

i do remember on tv, ceo says after dyno deal, they still had $500mil+ finance to tap into if they are looking for another aquisition. can that only be used for acquisitions or did the financial crisis to cause a withdrawal?

 

[zorrro13]

I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?

How many shares can I buy at $2.50? I calculate 577.

I'm a TOTALL newbie at this

 

[Sean K]

I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?

How many shares can I buy at $2.50? I calculate 577.

I'm a TOTALL newbie at this

Call the company zorro. They'll be helpful I reckon.

Link Market Services will handle the enquiry:

1300 303 780

 

[ndpjai]

I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?

How many shares can I buy at $2.50? I calculate 577.

I'm a TOTALL newbie at this

Hi

I think U wont get the 5 for 13 shares, Record Date for the Entitlement Offer will be 7.00pm on 14 November 2008, so u should have bought this before trading halt.

But u'll get dividends for the share u bought, i think 19.5 cents per share.

Cheers
Jai

 

[KFC soup]

I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?

How many shares can I buy at $2.50? I calculate 577.

I'm a TOTALL newbie at this

no refund
if u have kept the shares untill 15th nov then u be able to buy 576 maybe 577 shares at $2.50 each
very bad luck mate

 

[TheAbyss]

Given the instos got in at $2.50 IPl is looking ok for a short term trade at $2.50-$2.52 today imo.

Pretty decent floor of buyers (approximately half of the available buyers volume bidding at $2.50) so if there is an opportunity it is around about now for a while at least anyway.

 

[benn]

hello. could someone please help.

What is the sale price of the dyno nobel shares in the takeover? And what is the cost base of of new incitec shares after the takeover?

i cant find it anywhere

cheers, ben

 

[tcoates]

Does this help...

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/zone_files/PDF_Media_Release/asx_announcement_130308.pdf

Also note there was a 20 for 1 split recently.

Tim

 

[benn]

thanks Tim. I had already found that but still found it confusing.

i think i have another link to ATO response which is what i need/what others will need. thanks again

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/zone_files/PDF_Media_Release/asx_announcement_130308.pdf

 

[KFC soup]

if i remember it correctly, they bought dyno nobel at 2.30 a share a while back. but that doesn't really help you if i don't know the the number of shares sorry

 

[Sean K]

I have IPL at a pe of about 4.9 ish yielding about 10% ish.

My bank is giving me about 5%.

Is IPL earnings going to be effected that much?

Quite a few companies now with pe's around this level.

Market is factoring in a 60% ish decrease in profits aroundabouts.

If that does not happen, there's even some short term value appearing, maybe.

 

[gohawks]

Hi Guys,

Very new to the stock market but have been lurking in the forums and enjoying the informative discussions all round.

I have been watching IPL closely and really like them as a buy at the current pricing. The yield is around 11% but I am curious to find out how stable people think there future dividend payouts will be?

Thanks!

 

[Sean K]

Hi Guys,

Very new to the stock market but have been lurking in the forums and enjoying the informative discussions all round.

I have been watching IPL closely and really like them as a buy at the current pricing. The yield is around 11% but I am curious to find out how stable people think there future dividend payouts will be?

Thanks!

Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.

 

[gohawks]

Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.

Cheers appreciate the reply. I guess my feeling is people will always need fertiliser (we need to eat right?) but obviously because of the economic downturn and subsequent slowdown in mining explosive sales will and probably have already dropped.

Any ideas how to find what percentage of the business is made up of explosive sales and what percentage of fertiliser sales?

 

[skc]

Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.

Just some random thoughts: whilst the demand for fertiliser and explosives are probably independent, their supply are dependent (made of the same stuff...). So a fall in demand on explosives could lead to increased supply of fertilisers and drive down the price.

 

[Sean K]

Cheers appreciate the reply. I guess my feeling is people will always need fertiliser (we need to eat right?) but obviously because of the economic downturn and subsequent slowdown in mining explosive sales will and probably have already dropped.

Any ideas how to find what percentage of the business is made up of explosive sales and what percentage of fertiliser sales?

If I had some time I'd do it myself, but you will find it in their reports. Probably in their last major presentation after their annual report. That'll be burried in their web site some where.

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/index.cfm

 

[outback]

The price of Nitrogen has halved in the last few months from major historical highs.

Whilst the price of DAP fertilizer has basically tripled in the last twelve months.

Farmers are saying the DAP is way too dear, so most fertilizer companies a stuck with a pretty large supply of expensive fertilizer.

Farmers won't buy dear fertilizer, suppliers won't drop price until they can sell inventory and import cheaper raw materials.

Downturn in mining will see a major reduction in the need for explosives.


I add all this up to mean IPL, which was pretty overpriced just before the split, will undergo a major revaluation.

At 11% yield on a PE of around 5, it has lotsa room to move.

I'm vewy vewy tempted to go Loooong.

 

[Sean K]

At 11% yield on a PE of around 5, it has lotsa room to move.

I'm vewy vewy tempted to go Loooong.

Yes, seems to have room to move. A few companies with current pe's about 5. Pick the ones that will come out of this on top and you may do ok long term, but maybe not worst implosion Wayne's 24 horseman case.