IPL - Incitec Pivot

[Miner]

It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived.

Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then.

I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?

It is an incredible success story. With a high shortage of soft commodity food grains across the world, curbing of export by agriculture based countries many good analysts including Eureka Report have cited IPL as a buy even with a high price.

I am no chartist but sharing what I have been reading on IPL.

 

[redwynne]

Woohoo Patience IS a virtue!! Happy to see it still climbing up. Glad I stuck it out. Was worried for a while there. But yeah it does beg the question, will it keep its upward climb? And if so, for how long? I have no stop on it as I am trying to keep it for at least 12 months, thats til December then. Prefer the tax man not to get more than his fair share of the profits. So here's hoping it will still be high in a few months time. In the past twelve months it started off at $40something and is now $170something.

Ahh I still love this share! Whats there not to love about it!!:

 

[michael_selway]

Woohoo Patience IS a virtue!! Happy to see it still climbing up. Glad I stuck it out. Was worried for a while there. But yeah it does beg the question, will it keep its upward climb? And if so, for how long? I have no stop on it as I am trying to keep it for at least 12 months, thats til December then. Prefer the tax man not to get more than his fair share of the profits. So here's hoping it will still be high in a few months time. In the past twelve months it started off at $40something and is now $170something.

Ahh I still love this share! Whats there not to love about it!!:

Hi do you reckon IPL has peaked?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 990.8 1,110.5 1,016.9
DPS 300.0 715.0 773.0 665.0

thx

MS

 

[redwynne]

Hi do you reckon IPL has peaked?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 990.8 1,110.5 1,016.9
DPS 300.0 715.0 773.0 665.0

thx

MS

TBH I have no clue. I know nothing about shares, how they work, why they go up and why they go down etc. I just look at the trend and this has had a fairly upward trend for a while whilst others have had sporadic movements. I tried to learn a little bit about them but Im not sure if I understand it all.

Im just glad IPL has moved back up to its previous peak, but then again, it has already dropped to about $170 today so maybe it has reached its peak. I would be happy if in December 2008 it would be at its peak again because the money I have made will be worth the wait.

I dont believe I could get a similar return on a fixed term deposit at a bank... could I?

NoobInvester

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived.

Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then.

I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?

Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,

I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food

It seems so obvious now, so ridiculously obvious that the Chindia boom would flow into food and Agri products but thats hindsight I guess

 

[redwynne]

Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,

I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food

Bottom line is we CAN live w/o oil, the cavemen (and cavewomen) did many many many years ago. But we cannot live w/o food and water under any circumstances.

How does one know that IPL stock is the most expensive on the ASX? Is there a way to find out?

 

[michael_selway]

Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,

I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food

It seems so obvious now, so ridiculously obvious that the Chindia boom would flow into food and Agri products but thats hindsight I guess

But IPL isnt a food company in itself compared to AWB, GNC, ABB?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 1,002.3 1,110.5 1,100.2
DPS 300.0 753.0 784.6 693.0

Business Description
Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) is Australias largest supplier of fertilizers. IPL is involved in the manufacture, distribution and sale of fertilisers with manufacturing facilities in Qld, Vic and NSW and distribution networks nationally.

Company Strategy
IPL supplies more than 50% of Australias agricultural plant nutrient needs, underpinning its position as a low-cost supplier. It supplies to farmers via retail channels (independent and corporate dealers and agents) and direct to farmer. After exploiting merger synergies from the 2003 merger between Incitec Fertilizers and Pivot in response to increased competition in the fertiliser market, IPL commenced a restructure process in June 2005. This reduced annual costs by $25m by reducing management and administration costs and optimising asset utilisation, while also strengthening customer service. Growth is also targeted through broadening the product and services offering (liquid fertilisers, finance), geographic expansion (domestic and regional) and by participating in agribusiness consolidation. Orica sold its 70% of IPL in May 2006. IPL bought Southern Cross Fertilisers from BHP in August 2006. It acquired 13% of Dyno Nobel in August 2007. Incitec Pivot reported statutory NPAT of $57.15m for the half-year ended 31 March 2007. The result includes individually material items totalling $7.6m after tax. Revenues from ordinary activities were $543.6m, up 37% from last year. Diluted EPS was 113 cents compared to 17 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $(53.2m) compared to $(66.9m) last year. The interim dividend was fully franked at 69 cents, compared with 22 cents last year.

 

[Lukeyz]

Narsty very fast $3 drop just before 11 am today, and overall a $5 drop since just after the open.

Anyone have any clues why such a sharp fall??

Cheers

 

[ithatheekret]

Narsty very fast $3 drop just before 11 am today, and overall a $5 drop since just after the open.

Anyone have any clues why such a sharp fall??

Cheers

I think it's just the way the stock trades , can do the opposite too , open sharply up and drift back .

I would just try to stay in sync with it at this stage , be alert to the volumes going through and the technicals at this stage .

Tapping on $200's door means we're playing poker with the big boys now .

I must admit that when I see a share I'm holding achieve a price that has me explete HFS ...... I tend to lighten the load a little and lock some profit away .

DXL was the latest to attain that , but then again I've done it with OSH before twice ........ and the price kept going , I just don't have the time to look back and wince , it breaks the concentration .

 

[redwynne]

Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36.

Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here?

Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?

 

[Julia]

Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36.

Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here?

Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?

Tear it up/ignore it. Believe it or not, there are some people who actually do respond positively to this practice. Perhaps they have inherited the shares, don't usually follow the market, and have no idea of the current price.
Maybe they find owning shares which they don't understand a burden and like the idea of some cash in exchange. Whatever. If they didn't get some positive response from these frequent mailouts involving countless companies, they wouldn't continue doing it.

If you look at Announcements for IPL you will see a notice from them mentioning this mail out.

 

[redwynne]

If you look at Announcements for IPL you will see a notice from them mentioning this mail out.

I did read the announcement but I have never encountered a company trying to buy shares at nearly half price. I find that really odd and didnt realise it may be a fairly common practice.

Its a bit like the bogus bank email spam... try hard enough, some people will fall for it and one can make a quick buck or more.

Surely this practice shouldnt be allowed!

PS I cant believe that a share register is a public document that one can buy to obtain details of shareholders. Now that I find a joke. Whatever happened to the Privacy Act?? If I want people to spam me in this fashion then I will make my home number unsilent and list it in the white pages for starters.

 

[rx1]

With IPL's acquisition of DXL, it would create a CGT event. Does anyone know in this particular situation, what the cost base of IPL for CGT calculations for DXL holders?

They've got a class ruling out CR 2008/38, doesn't really spell out what the cost base of IPL is.

Any help to get a better idea of the calculations would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

 

[bowser]

Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36.

Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here?

Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?

David Tweed - he's made a fortune from people being ignorant about the value of their shareholdings...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tweed

 

[ithatheekret]

With IPL's acquisition of DXL, it would create a CGT event. Does anyone know in this particular situation, what the cost base of IPL for CGT calculations for DXL holders?

They've got a class ruling out CR 2008/38, doesn't really spell out what the cost base of IPL is.

Any help to get a better idea of the calculations would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

The explanation of the ATO class ruling in regards to the acquisition .

http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?docid=CLR/CR200838/NAT/ATO/00001

 

[Dezza]

Any tax people out there to put that in English?

Is this a good thing tax-wise for those who bought DXL on float at $2.37 back in April 2006 and rolled over to the full share offer?

 

[Julia]

PS I cant believe that a share register is a public document that one can buy to obtain details of shareholders

Isn't it to your advantage to be able to know the major shareholders in a company and who is buying or selling?

 

[michael_selway]

I think it's just the way the stock trades , can do the opposite too , open sharply up and drift back .

I would just try to stay in sync with it at this stage , be alert to the volumes going through and the technicals at this stage .

Tapping on $200's door means we're playing poker with the big boys now .

I must admit that when I see a share I'm holding achieve a price that has me explete HFS ...... I tend to lighten the load a little and lock some profit away .

DXL was the latest to attain that , but then again I've done it with OSH before twice ........ and the price kept going , I just don't have the time to look back and wince , it breaks the concentration .

Hm its all time high is $200.00

It will be intersting to see what the price of this one will be in hte not too distant future

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 1,148.5 1,370.6 1,347.0
DPS 300.0 702.0 822.0 807.9

thx

MS

Date: 6/6/2008
Author: Peter Wells
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 31
Australian stocks with exposure to the agribusiness sector have performedstrongly in 2008. This is exemplified by the stellar performance of IncitecPivot, which peaked at around $A196 in early June 2008. In contrast, thefertiliser group's stock was trading at around $A60 in mid-2007.Agribusiness stocks have benefited from the boom in the price of softcommodities, and analysts say that structural changes in the agriculturalindustry will make the sector increasingly attractive to investors

 

[Gekko]

Monsanto quarterly profits just out. Cost up, but compensated by higher revenues.

Upped guidance for full year which by memory has 1 quarter to go for Monsanto.

 

[ithatheekret]

Topped up today , well sort of , I missed the 172.60 area , but managed to fill at an average of 173.11 .

I've got a 207 in my rig Micheal , but I think they are going to do something soon , nothing known , just a gut feeling mate .