IPL - Incitec Pivot

Muschu · 29 June 2008

I'm a relative newbie and don't hold IPL but have been watching it. I have read contrasting articles about the company - One suggesting it almost has a licence to print money and the other that it has a higher than average degree of risk attached.
Last week the SP dropped significantly only to make a bit of a re-bound on Friday.
Clearly the company has has exceptional gains these past 2 years. I wonder if it is at some sort of cross-roads now or is it just responding to the market volatility as many [most?] other shares are?
Is there a combined FA / TA view out there as to where IPL is heading over the coming months? Or is this just too crystal-ball like?
Regards
Rick

Lukeyz · 2 July 2008

Wow, I really didn't see this $25 bashing coming 2 days ago. They might have a bit of a Tax bill coming, but surely it's not big enough to justify these falls in the sp. Or is it commodity price related.. Anyone feel the need to correct me??

grace · 2 July 2008

Lukeyz said:
Wow, I really didn't see this $25 bashing coming 2 days ago. They might have a bit of a Tax bill coming, but surely it's not big enough to justify these falls in the sp. Or is it commodity price related.. Anyone feel the need to correct me??

I see a couple of brokers giving the sell order on it. Also, some people find it easier to lock in a profit than a loss. I'm guilty of it too sometimes!

r0ma · 2 July 2008

Also curious whats going on with this one? last week it reached $190 and hit as low as $159 this morning, from what I can see ING & anz have sold off?

Lukeyz · 2 July 2008

Thanks for the input Grace. You provide great information in all your posts. I'm still surprised that the broker downgrades caused such a heavy fall. Is it not considered too bad? Just so quick too...

Julia · 2 July 2008

I don't think it's just broker downgrades. Possibly more that the excellent growing season is now over, the weather patterns 'going forward' (always wanted to say that) are not looking good, and thus the medium term outlook for the fertiliser business is less rosy than 12 months or so ago.

Also, I'd guess a lot of people - with the uncertain outlook for the markets for the next year or more - are locking in their profits. I sold IPL yesterday, certainly giving back some profit, but not as much as if I were still holding today.

legs · 24 July 2008

anyone care to suggest why this is taking a dive? I dont hold but Father does as most farmers do. Would like to give him an explanation as to why.

grace · 24 July 2008

From what I hear over the Eastern side of the country of the west (and please WA people correct me if I'm wrong), quite a considerable number of farmers did not get their Winter crop planted (no planting rain) and now it is too late. As WA farmers are big users of fertilizer, I'd say a bit of impact on sales there. Just a guess from a farming perspective.

chops_a_must · 24 July 2008

grace said:
From what I hear over the Eastern side of the country of the west (and please WA people correct me if I'm wrong), quite a considerable number of farmers did not get their Winter crop planted (no planting rain) and now it is too late. As WA farmers are big users of fertilizer, I'd say a bit of impact on sales there. Just a guess from a farming perspective.

Can't see why that would be the case.

We've had the best rains in years. So yeah..............................................................

Would be more to do with the grain prices tanking.

grace · 24 July 2008

chops_a_must said:
Can't see why that would be the case.

We've had the best rains in years. So yeah..............................................................

It was on our rural news ABC Radio. Perhaps they were exaggerating. Perhaps I didn't listen to the story correctly. You would know though living over there. Someone I know will know exactly where (my hubby, the farmer). Shall report back. I know somewhere missed planting their Winter Crop.

Caliente · 24 July 2008

Wow - incitec pivot has taken an absolute hammering today. It's now on my watchlist for high quality stocks taking a battering. Only problem is the P/E ratio is still high - which still leaves considerable downside risk, even for such a defensive stock.

People gotta eat...

If this drops to 130's I'll definitely snag a parcel.

michael_selway · 24 July 2008

Caliente said:
Wow - incitec pivot has taken an absolute hammering today. It's now on my watchlist for high quality stocks taking a battering. Only problem is the P/E ratio is still high - which still leaves considerable downside risk, even for such a defensive stock.

People gotta eat...

If this drops to 130's I'll definitely snag a parcel.

Hi deinfitely on a buy list now

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 997.1 1,378.0 1,422.0
DPS 300.0 624.3 846.7 832.3

Date: 16/7/2008
Author: Tracy Lee
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 50
Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, will incur a smaller loss thanexpected from a plant shutdown. In June 2008, it estimated that the cost ofrepairs and lost production at an ammonium phosphate plant would cut net profitby $A58 million. On 15 July, Incitec said that repairs were completed ahead ofschedule and normal operations had resumed, so that the loss would only be about$A49 million. This caused the revision of earnings estimates by some analysts.Incitec's share price rose by $A1.78 to $A179.78

thx

MS

grace · 24 July 2008

grace said:
It was on our rural news ABC Radio. Perhaps they were exaggerating. Perhaps I didn't listen to the story correctly. You would know though living over there. Someone I know will know exactly where (my hubby, the farmer). Shall report back. I know somewhere missed planting their Winter Crop.

It was Northern rain belt in WA that missed out on planting rain, so no fertilizer went in there. That was on ABC radio Southern Qld. Does that sound right Chops?

Perhaps though, I think the street talk got this one down today. Seems that the AFR had them having to raise capital per the gossip column.

Company declines to comment on AFR Street Talk column citing speculation that Incitec may decide today to raise capital and whether or not to go ahead with Moranbah plant.

If it's a rumour, I didn't start it.....

r0ma · 12 August 2008

The Low hit $123 today, Any indication of whats gonig on with this one? it has lost 30% in a matter of 2 months.

Andy_aus · 12 August 2008

Oil prices have fallen leading many to believe that the commodities boom is over amongst other things.

Fertiliser stocks on US xchange have also been hammered.

3 veiws of a secret · 15 August 2008

Andy_aus said:
Fertiliser stocks on US xchange have also been hammered.

I think your spot on with your thread.....OR should I say I agree with you!
Also I was watching IPL @ $123 dollars the other day,but it sure did recover quickly. I'm looking for another opportunity at that sort of level......I just wonder if NUF is on a similar trading decline as IPL????? hmmmmmmmmmm

michael_selway · 31 August 2008

3 veiws of a secret said:
I think your spot on with your thread.....OR should I say I agree with you!
Also I was watching IPL @ $123 dollars the other day,but it sure did recover quickly. I'm looking for another opportunity at that sort of level......I just wonder if NUF is on a similar trading decline as IPL????? hmmmmmmmmmm

Hm it looks good when price drops so low

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 1,057.8 1,444.8 1,475.7
DPS 300.0 633.6 827.0 837.0

Date: 29/8/2008
Author: Sophie Morris
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 24
Liberal Party senator Bill Heffernan has criticised the Australian Competition& Consumer Commission. It had stated that global economic pressures are thereason for the doubling of Australian fertilizer prices since 2007. A Senateselect committee will look closely at the role of Incitec Pivot in theAustralian market, as it supplies 70% of the country's fertilizer

Thx

MS

redwynne · 1 September 2008

Does anyone have any thoughts or opinions on the possible share split? How does one know if it is in the interests of the shareholders or not?

Noob Shareholder

PhoenixXx · 29 September 2008

Last week i noticed that the code was changed to IPLDA instead of IPL. And absolutely no joy here post-split

rthakkar · 29 September 2008

With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world.
I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer

IPL - Incitec Pivot

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