IPL - Incitec Pivot

[ithatheekret]

There's $170 on the board for a cost push trade .

.......... and just to make my day ABB rolls into $9 as well .

 

[redwynne]

I have liked this share for a long time. How many shares can boast an increase from approx $45 to $170 in 12 months?

I watched IPL for a while before I bought and probably lost $20 per share in the process because I thought it wouldnt last long. But also, who would ever think of paying $100 for a share? I was trying to justify to myself that it was worth it. Eventually I did buy, and now seeing them get to $170 Im wondering when will the bubble burst? How does one know when to sell? Should I hang on? I would rather hang on for 12 months to minimise the capital gains but will it hold out until Dece 2008 or will the bubble burst way before that?

Any advice here would be appreciated I am so new to shares and the way they operate. The terminology used is sometimes beyond my understanding. Call me a noob! I am by no means an expert. I picked IPL purely because of its upward trend. Draw a line of best fit and its pointing upwards.

Also, Im curious, how does one find out the most expensive stock on the ASX? Is there a way to find out?

Thanks heaps!

 

[prawn_86]

Redwynne,

Pirce is not really important, it is market cap that is comparable among companies.

MC = SP * # of shares on issue.

I suggest you check out the Beginners Lounge for more info on this.

Does anyone know IPLs MC? About $7bill I thought, but I could be totally wrong.

 

[ithatheekret]

Did you have a plan with the trade ?

My plan was interrupted by another stock being sold down heavily and my preference not to take up margin .

Like you it has cost me twenty dollars on this trade for a larger portion of the holding , but fortunately the other plan work just as well .

Now if only CBA could manage to get down to todays NAB price .........

For the rest you need Razz , I mean Nick Radge

He has a nicer way of putting things than I .

 

[ithatheekret]

Does anyone know IPLs MC? About $7bill I thought, but I could be totally wrong.

I had it around 7.46B at one stage , we can toss those numbers out now , I think it's increased a tad .

ANZ got out too early and AXA jumped in .

Stellar ride for share holders , the company has certainly grown though .

 

[redwynne]

No I dont have a plan with my trade. Im just plodding along watching it grow! I did want to make enough money to wipe off a small debt

According to SMH, approx 8billion shares is the market cap, there are 50mil already issued and the share price isnt >$170 any more! Its back down to $160something.

Thanks for the feedback

 

[vishalt]

This stock is ridiculous, congrats to anyone who had this, oh my god @ $173, it JUST DOES NOT STOP.

One day incitec,

one day,

when you flunk a profit report

i'll be waiting

TO SHORT YOU!

 

[michael_selway]

This stock is ridiculous, congrats to anyone who had this, oh my god @ $173, it JUST DOES NOT STOP.

One day incitec,

one day,

when you flunk a profit report

i'll be waiting

TO SHORT YOU!

Hm it could be overvalued you know!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3
DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-09-08 824.6 19.4 105.3%
Year Ending 30-09-09 833.5 19.2 1.1%

Date: 7/2/2008
Author: Tracy Lee
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 8
Australian-listed agricultural fertiliser group Incitec Pivot has enjoyed stronggrowth in recent years. The stock is now trading above $A100, and the mostbullish analysts expect it to rise to around $A148. Much of Incitec Pivot'ssuccess has stemmed from its decision to focus on manufacturing rather than thedistribution of fertilisers. Manufacturing now accounts for more than 80 percent of Incitec's earnings, while the acquisition of Southern CrossFertilisers has allowed it to capitalise on the surging price of ammoniumphosphate. Meanwhile, an efficiency program known as Tardis has significantlyexceeded Incitec's expectations in terms of cost savings

http://news.smh.com.au/incitec-lifts-earnings-guidance/20080306-1xgf.html

 

[ithatheekret]

Well what can I say , oh sorry Tracey my analysis was better than yours , it came out well before hers , which was well under my target . Funny how she managed to bring it up well late into the rally . Is that where she and ANZ had notched in and exited ?

Well my target as stated was between $170 - $180 , it got half way in between those and I called toss it . Won't it back up until it hits the ground , the I'll be back .

By the way , it's not bragging if you can do it .

I''l pinch Nicks saying again , " Plan the trade , trade the plan "

Anyone that can't do that , needs to PM Nick Radge and beg his assistance .

He can do it and has done for the last ten years I've known of him , I've watched him cop flak before , goes with his territory .

But those who can't must be willing to commit the time , if not go buy Aussie Bonds .

 

[MRC & Co]

Well my target as stated was between $170 - $180 , it got half way in between those and I called toss it . Won't it back up until it hits the ground , the I'll be back .

By the way , it's not bragging if you can do it .

I''l pinch Nicks saying again , " Plan the trade , trade the plan "

Just out of interest itha, how did you come up with a target between $170-180?

Was it based on some kind of technical trend, or was it your fundamental "fair value"?

When you say "plan the trade, trade the plan" I gather you mean selling once it becomes close to your predicted price range? But how you are determining this predicted price range is what interests me? I could understand if it was fundamental, but isnt position trading far easier if using technicals? I mean, if this one turned against you and set a new downward trend, would you still hold tight trying to trade the plan?

Cheers

 

[ithatheekret]

It was two months research , wanted to know whether to buy more or sell .

I do the math , go walkabout at times . My projections are differnt to those of the companies also , they're looking or have put forward 135% , my lower end is 118% and I wondered if they put out a discounted forecast . I know fundamentals lag , but they are a basis , it just depends on how much you can stretch them to get them close enough to realtime inputs and outlays .

( did I say that right Nick ? )

I also watch trucks of go by daily , and a lot of new Ag equipment has rolled pass too , not to mention watertanks, someones making a quid selling tanks .

Counted out prospective numbers based on the rise and quite possibly another yet for fertilizers . Some would call it a quasi analysis , and my numbers are based on the lowest projections .

If just one of the plants like the one in Geelong go down somewhere in the world , prices will spike higher again .

But like I said it was time to toss it , ( means out the window ) , haven't seen it hit the ground yet . Market cap means nothing to me at present , good time for a raising though . It was the projected target , moved some off prior , looking for an entry now .

I discussed entry levels earlier but no-one really popped in to consider them .

I was thinking ahead always knew the softies would go up , that's what your suppose to do . If people can't think ahead see Razz .

There's others like NUF Chops mentioned them to me the other week , they've just got a good acq which will see good organic growth , company has a raising to public investors soon I think ???? Around the $15 region ??

ABB , GNC , DXL should do okay in this climate , entries may depend on whether the asx200 stays above todays close or goes and pushes through 5200 and below . A lot of cash raising going on , frantic even

But they all have buying levels . Why don't we find some more and make money that's what we're here for ............

If your on the right track just ignore the noise and BS .

 

[austek]

Just out of interest itha, how did you come up with a target between $170-180?

Was it based on some kind of technical trend, or was it your fundamental "fair value"?

When you say "plan the trade, trade the plan" I gather you mean selling once it becomes close to your predicted price range? But how you are determining this predicted price range is what interests me? I could understand if it was fundamental, but isnt position trading far easier if using technicals? I mean, if this one turned against you and set a new downward trend, would you still hold tight trying to trade the plan?

Cheers

A simple measured move gives $170 usually conservative, then I apply Robert Miners "Alternative Price Projection" comes with latest Metastock, and this gives a target of $175. My own touch is to draw a rectangle between the 2 and get out in the middle of the rectangular box in this case $172.

Unfortunately my plan suggests take half profit, was out $173.40 but missed half the jump.

I have a Trading Journal designed by Jason from the Chartist forum which incorporates EW targets and this gives $180, but I don't use it.

As itha indicates their will be more opportunities. Fertilizer suplly is down,
Qslnd floods ruined the Phosphate hill plant, Mt Isa has shut down & China's own plant has had several disruptions recently.
Wheat production is expected to double next year and India & China cannot get enough of the stuff, so demand should continue.

Last years trend of 233% likely to diminish somewhat due to the US slow down, but catching the rallies will make it interesting.

 

[ithatheekret]

There's a lot more you can apply with Metastock , as long as your scripting doesn't crash the programme ( managed that a few times ) , but ...... if you can develope a scripting ( and have a large enough processor ) , you would be amazed what you can get the program to do .

It took two months to get all my basics together on IPL , the rest was feed .

I actually have another set up showing from 183. through to 197. , based on historicals and projected forward earnings , market volume and median price ranges . The previous one I brought up were the first tranch in the feed . If the string is correct it get 's pretty close .

I've got an indicator of my own shows a developement area above 163. at present . But won't go into that Red will jump me

I'd say you tweak your string up Austek ???? V10 here cos' of new windows upgrades . ( if anyones thinkiing about it , go platinum highly recommend it , can even use for NAB ,,, that's saying something )

I use a few fundamental feeds , Paritech are good ( god send ) , but I cross reference with others and add my own data as well . Depending on the version , you can do quite a lot in considerably less time . I have the ASX data package , consider it a must , it's $200 a year or around that I think , after GST . Can't remember for sure sorry , don't handle the accounts and bills .

Just fed a script which I think was from another version into my old set up and it crashed , lots of dejavu this week , been there done that .... often .

 

[MRC & Co]

Ok cheers, so basically its a price projection derived from FA.

Use a few different fundamental feeds, damn!

I will check out some of those other tickers.

Thx.

 

[austek]

MrC
Not FA for me, I did give an FA story to bolster confidence in IPL but all my trading actions and targets are based on the chart ie., price & volume.

ITHA
I have vers 10.1 and after 10 years of crashes and indicator malfunctions I switched from Paritech to Premium Data with no regrets. No crashes and I even get a chart of the dow jones for the same price as Paritech

I'm the wrong generation to be worried about MS formulas, I struggle to cope with the basics of a computer, let alone formulas, although I have had a few designed for me, which I rarely use.

It's just a game of learn at your own pace.

 

[redwynne]

Ouch less than $130 now . I havent seen IPL drop so dramatically in all the time I have been watching this stock. Thats like down ummm $20 and the day isnt over yet!! Thats like $30-$40 in less than a week.

Well like the minority (I suspect) here I dont actually know much about stocks. I just watch them. Though I do get the feeling that a lot of things that happen on the stock exchange are planned, are as a result of takeovers, etc. eg http://news.smh.com.au/incitec-lifts-earnings-guidance/20080306-1xgf.html and either an insider or an avid stock watcher may pick things up.

Hopefully it will claw its way back up to a really nice number for me to keep smiling :

Anyways Im in it for the long haul, not for a quick buck. Its still my favourite stock even now. Now boys, unless there is something I should know...

Should call myself StockNoob!

EDIT: more news http://business.smh.com.au/33bn-bid-for-dyno/20080311-1ylg.html
fertiliser and explosive combo, sounds interesting!!

 

[BBand]

As they say - once everybody is talking about a particular stock, much of the buying has already been done i.e. and there are not so many prospective buyers left - if you are in , maybe its time to consider getting out (if your stop has not already been hit)??

Having said that - to-days reaction looks a bit over done !!

Who knows

Good luck

 

[MRC & Co]

As they say - once everybody is talking about a particular stock, much of the buying has already been done i.e. and there are not so many prospective buyers left - if you are in , maybe its time to consider getting out (if your stop has not already been hit)??

Having said that - to-days reaction looks a bit over done !!

Who knows

Good luck

Famous last words!

I imagine many stops would have been hit yesterday as it broke out of its trading range.

No doubt some thinking it may have found horizontal support just below close and hoping for a bounce.

Once that did not happen at open today, I think most would have seen their stops triggered. At least those who had stops placed.

Big question is now, will it fill that gap? Or does the high volume and wide open-close see a further capitulation?

 

[ithatheekret]

I think the completion move into DXL has opened up a new mystery door for analysts to peer through .

More bang for your buck now .

Will this move bring out the predators though ?

The $2B move sheds a whole new light on the company now and puts it in direct competition with other market darlings . Opening up new ground for the company to tread .

 

[Sean K]

It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived.

Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then.

I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?