IPL - Incitec Pivot

[Bazmate]

Righto, finished the day at the high of 3.34....... Interesting watch for Monday morning methinks..

Sorry folks, I don't post very often but this one caught my eye tonight.

I don't actually have any but the missus has held a small chunk of IPL for many years.

Baz

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Righto, finished the day at the high of 3.34....... Interesting watch for Monday morning methinks..

Sorry folks, I don't post very often but this one caught my eye tonight.

I don't actually have any but the missus has held a small chunk of IPL for many years.

Baz

Good pick Baz.

Your missus may be on the money.

I read nothing negative in the financial press about IPL.

gg

 

[Bazmate]

Well, that was a disappointment amongst many others...

GG, I'm not sure I've read anything positive either

 

[pixel]

Well, that was a disappointment amongst many others...

GG, I'm not sure I've read anything positive either

When IPL broke the resistance trendline the second time, I had started buying; was expecting a move to $2.75 and beyond; even looked forward to the (likely) November dividend.
It will require great patience, by the looks of it. Not sure I have enough of that; my 2-day volatility stop has risen to $2.68...

 

[Country Lad]

May as well throw this one in to create some confusion.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[skc]

The DAP price chart/trend may help one trades IPL.

http://www.mongabay.com/commodities/prices/chart-dap.php

IPL has for some time been a potential profit downgrade candidate in my books, and the chart really threatened to break below $2.65. An investor update presentation 2 weeks ago provided no bad news so the price action has moved away from that support, although not too convincingly. They need at least a high low to really be clear of that danger zone.

IPL due to report around early Nov so the downgrade window hasn't closed yet imo.

 

[peter2]

Nice correlation (DAP:IPL) skc. I'll be noting that on my IPL chart as a confirmation filter.

Has the move to prop-trading provided a better source of quality FA info?

 

[skc]

Nice correlation (DAP:IPL) skc. I'll be noting that on my IPL chart as a confirmation filter.

Has the move to prop-trading provided a better source of quality FA info?

I do get better access to analyst reports etc, but that's not really a real edge as many people (retail or insto) have access to the same stuff.

 

[ROE]

How low can it go I been pulling many $2.50 naked put for a while with Great Success
One will expire tomorrow worthless unless it drop > 20c at close of tomorrow

did another one yesterday
Notification that we have SOLD for you 100 contracts in INCITEC PIVOT DE13P 250

 

[pixel]

How low can it go I been pulling many $2.50 naked put for a while with Great Success
One will expire tomorrow worthless unless it drop > 20c at close of tomorrow

did another one yesterday
Notification that we have SOLD for you 100 contracts in INCITEC PIVOT DE13P 250

Smart assessment, ROE
If you really want some, you'll have to increase your Put strike. Given the recent Higher Lows, I'd consider it unlikely that $2.50 will be revisited any time soon. If, as I expect, this week's candle closes above the falling trendline, I consider it more likely to rise above $2.80 and beyond.



I hold and intend to add some more. A dividend should also be due in November.

 

[ROE]

I had it both way at a moment
I bought some at 2.60 sometimes a go collect dividend while write covered call
I wrote covered call on 2.90 Dec 13
I wrote naked put 2.50 Dec 13

Will work out what to do next come Dec 13 -

 

[skc]

If, as I expect, this week's candle closes above the falling trendline, I consider it more likely to rise above $2.80 and beyond.

Nice call.

IPL due to report around early Nov so the downgrade window hasn't closed yet imo.

The results were inline and were pretty clean. There were no nasty downgrades for next year although the dividend is much reduced. Cash flow was pretty healthy considering the reduction in NPAT. Stock up 9% one point. It marks a good week for the chemical sector with ORI going up ~20% in 2 days on a result that beat (low) expectation.

I had it both way at a moment
I bought some at 2.60 sometimes a go collect dividend while write covered call
I wrote covered call on 2.90 Dec 13
I wrote naked put 2.50 Dec 13

Will work out what to do next come Dec 13 -

Looks like you might get called?

 

[piggybank]

Updated P&F chart.....

 

[pixel]

When Fib 161.8 proved holding resistance, I sold most of mine at 2.85, expecting to be able to get them back a little lower and still collect the dividend: 5.8c plus 1.8c franking credit for those that I hold them long enough.

 

[ROE]

Nice call.



The results were inline and were pretty clean. There were no nasty downgrades for next year although the dividend is much reduced. Cash flow was pretty healthy considering the reduction in NPAT. Stock up 9% one point. It marks a good week for the chemical sector with ORI going up ~20% in 2 days on a result that beat (low) expectation.



Looks like you might get called?

Happy to let the call go - I can write naked put for 2.80 when the time come

 

[piggybank]

Well that has really stuffed up my downward channel...

 

[Ves]

Pretty chart. I like the look of it, starting to look nasty. A company with lots of short-term headwinds and operation problems.... but still fairly profitable. I'll have to run the ruler of IPL pretty closely to see how interested I'd be in its long term prospects if there's a big capitulation event.

It may be an interesting way to play the argicultural trend and a long term reversion on the AUD.

 

[Valued]

High accounting goodwill and low RoE - I would expect a goodwill impairment at some point. Maybe when someone figures out that they are better off investing anywhere else. Investors beware imo. Techies... carry on with whatever it is you do with your fancy charts

If I wanted to invest in this company, I think I would assume an impairment will take place and try to take an educated guess about what kind of level it will be and then value it on the basis that the impairment will occur. I would just make the assumption that the economic goodwill is lower than the accounting goodwill. I can't say for sure this is correct but since the worst thing that can happen is you undervalue the company then you can't make any real mistakes.

What is everyone elses opinion on high accounting goodwill and low RoE? I just don't see how this can be sustainable since no one in the right mind would buy a business only to get a 7% return on their money.

 

[So_Cynical]

My first post in the IPL thread, i have to say i often find myself drawn to ranging stocks...i suppose its the perception of predictability of price movement :dunno: anyway i have posted about IPL in my super thread.

(28th-October-2013) doubled my IPL position @ $2.69

I simply had no cash to buy another parcel at the bottom, near perfect little V bottom that it was...very frustrating constantly being fully invested, my 2 parcels in blue looking good with today's 37 week high, first time trading above $3 since May 2013.
~

 

[Triathlete]

Is anyone following IPL at the moment and care to share their view.?

Stock shows a Forecast EPS Growth of 9% Sept 2016 growing to EPS 35% Sept 2017
and a consensus price forecast of $4.40.

Technicals also supporting the stock at the moment.

I would think that if the forecasts are met then a move towards $5 then $7 is possible.

Current price $3.88