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IPL - Incitec Pivot

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adventra05 said:
Those entering last week for serious amounts knowing/or willing to stake their money on Monday info having positive effect on sp... many ships leak hopefully thats why some or most of them entered?
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And a translation of this one?



Maybe it's some sort of code, like the illuminati or something. You have to read it backwards and upside down to get the true meaning.

I think what may be intended is that the off market buyers were those in the know of positive information regarding the company, and they are interpreted to be the smart money. Since it was happening last week, there mus be an ann coming regarding this positive information.


I wonder if it could just be a couple of institutions swapping shares?

 
Isnt today meant to be the day where IPL reports there figures? I just looked at the ASX site and there are no announcements for IPL at this stage.
 
picked some at 2.27 this morning for the breakout ! Run rabbit run. Broken out of support at 2.44 march 17th. Sustainable?
 
In the v short term (ie today) look at current selling positions

Price Quantity Number
254 109,896 25
255 195,603 30
256 109,669 25
257 152,904 23
258 349,158 24
259 215,758 24
260 443,472 30


That's a lot of sell orders, resistance would appear to be in the high 2.5s
 
Good luck to those that got the bounce today - High of $2.58

I read its financial report and did not see any good news in there. 2.5 Billion in debt, operating cash flow negative. It will be hard to service that debt in a diminishing operating environment, but things are looking up in China so this could be very favourable for IPL. They gave a profit forecast which I think was well received. The market i think had factored in the result and showed a bit of relief.

I watched the pre-open market closely and saw it go down to $2.26 or so then open higher. Then i saw strength as the overall market went down. Then it hovered between 2.42 and 2.38. I lost patience and sold then it started rocketing.

If it stays above the $2.50 then things could be positive.
 
well looking at the performance of it today it looks like a buy on my analysis to $2.90, could be some good things to come for IPL.
 
Just heard on our local radio that their closing down the Geelong fertiliser plant at the end of June, 30 odd employees will be paid their full redundancy payments etc so they say, no idea if it has an effect on the SP.
 
clayton4115 said:
well looking at the performance of it today it looks like a buy on my analysis to $2.90, could be some good things to come for IPL.
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And, some great analysis there Clay, thanks for sharing.

This is a buy and holders nightmare. Especially if you thought it was a buy in Jul 08.

However, does that look bottomish to you? $2.00 has been well respected, and it's testing significant resistance at $2.50, possibly pushing through. If she holds above there it would be pretty positive, imo.
 

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I'd like to see more of an uptrend before going here.
Happened to hear"The Country Hour" on the radio recently and the outlook is poor for fertiliser prices.
Then there is a new player coming apparently. Don't know how much effect, if any, this will have on IPL.
http://www.canegrowers.com.au/fertiliser.aspx
 
I read a recent article that went bullish of fertiliser for next year. I'll try and find it post.

On the uptrend, the $3.00 mark looks important to me for longer term direction.
 
yes ravensdown from nz has come in due to the other punters not doing much, so they say.
from what i read, they will treat the phosphate in nz and ship it here.
they basically have the nz market cornered from what i understand.
its a sizable market too, as with so much rain, relatively poor soils, u need to turf a lot of fertiliser around the place.
they are a cooperative, buy stock, get cheaper fertiliser and profit too i guess.
 
Any1 beside me think this might be breaking out, resistance at 2.5 in the last 3 months and has pushed to 2.77 now and hopefully keeps going.. Can't say im a pro chart reader but thats what I make of it, the 3 dollar mark would be pretty sweet..

PS dont know how do put up charts and cant be bothered figuring it out at the moment....
 
It did break up through the $2.50 mark and attacked $3.00 resistance and naturally fell back. Lots of resistance there. Lets hope the $2.50 resistance, now support, holds. LONG term this might be a nice buy and hoper, if you think farmers will start fertilising again, and miners restart, um, mining.
 
IPL has been kicked out of Norway. Norway prefers phosphates from Morocco. There are other companies on the list that are not welcome there.
 
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Sell 22/06/2009 11:21AM
IPL -- Incitec Pivot Limited
The broker has downgraded forecast earnings for Incitec by 4-14% in FY09-10 to reflect lower fertiliser and explosives demand, lower DAP prices, and a stronger A$. This puts the broker well below guidance.

The broker also notes IPL is trading at a 30% premium to its North American peers and believes the expected Dyno synergies to be overestimated.

All means Sell retained, although the target rises from $1.80 to $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.44 Difference$0.54) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately - 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
 
Stock has now fallen approx 17% in one week. Ok market lost 3% today but what going on. Is it just broker nonsense (the p/e look a respectable 7.46) or is it something more? I accept the broker recomendations but the information they present does not seem to be new.
 

Nufarm fell after a proft downgrade. IPL fell with it.

IPL carries a lot of debt and short term things don't look rosy.

Nufarm is better value and has a better balance sheet IMO. However both will benefit when demand picks up and the global economy stabilises.

If things don't pick up in the next 1-2 years look out for another share issue from IPL to add to its existing 1.6 Billiion shares outstanding.
 
China announced yesterday it will help some of its export industries by removing export tariffs on their products from 1 July.

Fertilizer is one product to have the export tariff removed. Fertilizer prices will drop and this will hurt IPL.
 
Thanks Nero. IPL looks like one of those your going to have to hold a long time if your going to jump in.
 
Noted in an article recently by the International Fertilizer Industry Association (December 2008), that consumer demand may become more basic with an increase in grain diet.

In addition the article suggests that the “main variable in 2009 will be the potential for an upswing in fertilizer demand” this will stretch the limits of available supply. My opinion based on the article is that over the medium term the price for fertilizer will increase on the economic recovery and subsequently some upward swing in IPL share price?

See http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&q=fertilizer+price+forecast+2009+2010&meta=
 
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