IPL - Incitec Pivot

naddis01 said:

I beleive that the price of urea has ~ halved recently after farmer groups were considering importing their own fertiliser for the up coming winter season. Funny what a little competition can do.

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yeah not bad at all



Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 55.5 49.1 53.0 53.7
DPS 26.8 29.0 33.0 31.5

Date: 22/12/2008
Author: Sid Maher
Source: The Australian --- Page: 4
Direct Farm Inputs partner, Leighton Huxtable, is expected to appear before aSenate committee in early 2009 to discuss falling fertiliser prices and deaththreats he received after announcing plans to undercut major rivals. Sharp pricefalls in the wake of Direct Farm's entry into the Australian market haveraised new allegations of monopoly behaviour

Date: 15/12/2008
Author: David Ciampa
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 22
Incitec Pivot, Keycorp, National Australia Bank and the ANZ Bank are among thelisted companies that will hold annual meetings in the week beginning 15December 2008. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group and Fisher & Paykel Appliancesshareholders will receive interim dividends

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thx

MS

It's gone thru the 2.6 mark...and is now trading around 2.66..
Any ideas on this guys?

P.S I am very new to the market..

Myron, have you read through the thread? That should make clear what ideas various people have about the stock.

I heard on the business channel today that it was becasue one of U.S.A's largest seed producers (something like that) doubled its profit and said farmers will still buy even with a slow down.

Investors didn't like their 2009 update very much. Lots of stops being triggered today. Disappointing to say the least.

Dezza said:

Investors didn't like their 2009 update very much. Lots of stops being triggered today. Disappointing to say the least.

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Pretty average news, but not completely unexpected.

Looks overdone initially and a knife catching opportunity perhaps.

VWAP still hovering around $1.85 at present with approx 27m shares traded..

You going to catch the knife Kennas?

Surely a great buying opportunity..as long as their readjusted forecast is within cooee of what will happen..

Dezza said:

VWAP still hovering around $1.85 at present with approx 27m shares traded..

You going to catch the knife Kennas?

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Not yet. I might have on the open but I wasn't watching unfortunately. Will be interesting to see how it goes through the day and EOD. From my anecdotal experience a big knee jerk sell off day will be followed by a bit of a dead cat. No data to back that up, just a perception. Perhaps this can be a test case?

Alrights, I couldn't resist and popped a few bucks on it just for fun. Let's see how it goes over the next 3 days.

Ouch.. my hands are bloody Catching knives a bad idea.

Valuation seems way under value though, even given circa $400M NPAT is somewhere near 30cps.

So much for those that bought in the placement. No reward for them, just a shafting. Surely 1 month ago the board were aware of the likely development for 2009 ? Shifty..

I've bloodied my hands at $1.705 for some fun too.

Love blood!

:samurai:

Gee I must be bored.

This is the time when the cat actually is dead, and I'm eating it's whiskers for the next month...

In at 1.74

Margin calls galore going on atm. Interesting to see where this goes over the next few days.

You're right, this will be an interesting test case. I just had to be a part of it!

GL

Also couldn't resist a small bite.

In at 1.68, will be fun to see what comes of IPL in the next few days.

gohawks said:

Also couldn't resist a small bite.

In at 1.68, will be fun to see what comes of IPL in the next few days.

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OK, at least we'll all be bleading together for a bit.

Don't forget to sell when you've made your profit, or when the pussy is road kill!

Conserve capital in this world.

Exits rule!

Not too many bouncy cats recently. Boral and Leighton are good examples. On the positive note, Sims (SGM) was a cat with still some lives left. 20% fall on profit warning followed by 10% bounce.

Good luck.

ASX ANN today
03/02/2009 09:00 2009 Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00924256

2009 Update Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) today announced that, while the business performance for quarter 1 2009 (October – December 2008) had been in line with expectations, the outlook had deteriorated materially in January 2009. This is a result of the significant slowing of the global economy, with the US economy now in recession and, importantly, Asian economies have followed rather than being decoupled.

“January 2009 has seen a slower than expected pick up in international demand for fertiliser. Consequently, while we believe fundamentals remain strong and markets will eventually improve when demand returns, recent developments indicate that this may not occur until the second half of calendar year 2009, after the Australian winter crop planting window. This view is consistent with the news flow from major international industry participants released in January” said Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, Julian Segal.

In the Dyno Nobel explosives business, the North American business has slowed, with coal production cutbacks in the Powder River Basin and accelerating softness in the quarrying and construction sector. In Australia, 2009 demand is now expected to be on par with 2008 and the actions taken by mining companies, in response to the global economic situation, have directly impacted forecast ammonium nitrate (AN) demand growth in the medium term.

The forecast lag in Queensland AN demand growth pushes the demand and supply balance out 12 months to 2014 rather than 2013. Consequently IPL has reviewed the implications for the off-take loading of the planned 330kt Moranbah AN facility.

2009 Profitability based on current spot prices Consistent with the developments in January, IPL’s 2009 earnings are likely to be adversely impacted. Assuming current market conditions prevail, and taking into account the difficulty in forecasting expected full year earnings in the current economic environment, 2009 full year net profit after tax (NPAT) before individually material items is likely to be circa A$450M. Individually material items, primarily relating to the Velocity efficiency program, are likely to be an after tax cost of A$50M.

Key assumptions underpinning the forecast are average Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) pricing of US$410/t and Urea pricing of US$300/t and A$/US$ exchange rate of 70 cents. Based on the revised forecast, the profit sensitivities are:
• +/-US$10 DAP price = +/- A$12.9M EBIT
• +/-US$10 Urea price = +/- A$6.1M EBIT
• +/-1 cent A$/US$ = +/- A$15.9M EBIT

Pricing and market conditions may vary from these assumptions. They should therefore be used with care.

skc said:

Not too many bouncy cats recently. Boral and Leighton are good examples.

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I'm not sure if they were knives or baloons rapidly falling to ground....

This could go anywhere really. It's past couple of major drops have had some recovery and then further failure. The volume today looks like total capitulation to me. 73m shares exchanged...eeeek!

My money's on black, which means ... um, I'm not sure. Go heads!!!

LOL

ouch what the hell happened that is so **** i defo bought in at the wrong time.........................

I bought a decent sized parcel at $1.71 today. Hopefully it all comes good over time. I waited a long time to be able to get a decent sum of IPL at these types of levels. Good luck to all of us who took the plunge today.