International Index Trading

[wayneL]

An ill timed phone call from Mrs Frink meant I wasn't around to get short for the massive decline after the lunch break

Just another way women cost us money Alphonso.

(Just joking ladies)

 

[Broadway]

I managed to lose money today on the HSI, despite the fact that it had a range of over 900 points

An order mishap left me slightly down in the morning session(I was testing out ZLT's auto chase feature on the SIM Friday afternoon, and forgot to change it back to my real account this morning). An ill timed phone call from Mrs Frink meant I wasn't around to get short for the massive decline after the lunch break

To top things off, I found a support level around 28 000 once I was back at the screen- it looked like it was in the process of making a higher low, so I did a bit of bottom picking, which didn't go well at all.

My next move was probably the best thing I did all day-I went to the bottle shop to get some beer.:drink:

It's amazing how trends down look exactly like a succession of double bottoms, one after another, each one being faded at the end of the 'W'. And when you finally get a reversal, it comes from patternless slop, and very suddenly.
I get a feeling that people who do buy right at the bottom of these 'W's sell at fib 38-50% on the way back up, and add to this the people who purposely sell at these points as a strategy, and finally the few who have to cover their longs, altogether these groups generally make strong trends go for at least 3 surges, before the bears give up.
I saw these features in early August in the SPI as well, on several different days. I got hammered then. I learnt the hard way not to bet on a trend after a trend. There is usually random consolidation between trends. So many contrarians when classic patterns come along.
We should run a thread on trades that failed. I could fill it up so quickly..

 

[rub92me]

The KOSPI is taking quite a dive this morning - off more than 4 points. Could be an interesting day today for the HSI if any of the other Asian markets (e.g. Japan) follow suit.

 

[acouch]

ER2 chart for those interested for tonight..

ac

 

[rub92me]

Nice day for the HSI today! Gapped up about 700 points and I just saw it drop more than 250 points in about 10 seconds. This one is so choppy that I don't know how anyone would manage to trade it short term. You would need a stop of more than 400 points with about 100 points slippage risk, otherwise you would get ripped out of most trades within a heartbeat. Is anyone on this forum trading this at the moment? I'm just playing around with a simulator; after about 10 rounds it's HSI: 8 - rub92me: 2.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Nice day for the HSI today! Gapped up about 700 points and I just saw it drop more than 250 points in about 10 seconds. This one is so choppy that I don't know how anyone would manage to trade it short term. You would need a stop of more than 400 points with about 100 points slippage risk, otherwise you would get ripped out of most trades within a heartbeat. Is anyone on this forum trading this at the moment? I'm just playing around with a simulator; after about 10 rounds it's HSI: 8 - rub92me: 2.

Rub,

Trembling hand and Prof Frink trade it.

But i stay away from it!

 

[professor_frink]

I've dipped my toe back in the HSI water recently, but I'm not enjoying trading it anywhere near as much as I used to. Prior to the correction in July, it was still very volatile, but would only be insanely volatile at the end of a trend- it would provide plenty of time to get set before it went nuts. That doesn't happen anymore- it's nuts pretty well all day long- trying to finding a good entry point is extremely difficult for me now, and not really worth all the extra effort considering the market isn't able to take much size.

The SPI is the only market I'm trading in our region every day now, but will be getting stuck into the kospi very soon though

 

[acouch]

Dax and Estx50

picture perfect
ac

 

[professor_frink]

50% in 2 months. When does betting start on a crash?

Does anyone know if HK has an index option market? Not game to short this via futures- will probably bankrupt myself in a couple of weeks the rate it's going, but some longer dated, way OTM put options could worth a small punt here

 

[Edwood]

don't be such a chicken Prof, just charge on in there!

Nas is starting to show a sell signal fwiw - c/- Wernluck at livecharts

 

[professor_frink]

don't be such a chicken Prof, just charge on in there!

Nas is starting to show a sell signal fwiw - c/- Wernluck at livecharts

I just found out- there is an index option market, and I now have access to it through IB

Options over the HSI are a bit expensive considering I'd like to do it with money that I don't plan on seeing again, but they do have them over the mini contract, which is more to my liking.

What's that indicator on the naz chart?

 

[Edwood]

good luck Prof, will be interested to hear how you get on!

thats a bullish % indy that one

 

[Edwood]

was about to go to bed but Dow futs just rolled over, Bank of America missed targets, FTSE now down 120 from the HOD, Dax off nearly 100 in a few mins

 

[rub92me]

50% in 2 months. When does betting start on a crash?

Yes, it has gone a tad exponential hasn't it? I agree you'd have to have very deep pockets and nerves of steel to short it now. Maybe better to wait for it to head down first before jumping on that wagon. Could be hitting 40,000 before that happens

 

[professor_frink]

slightly random question........

Does anyone have some info on the FTSE for 2003? I'd like to find out what the lows were on the futures for the bottom of the bear market.

 

[nizar]

slightly random question........

Does anyone have some info on the FTSE for 2003? I'd like to find out what the lows were on the futures for the bottom of the bear market.

3277.50 was the low for the lowest (weekly bar) for the week ending 14/03/2003.

But this is for the actual index.

 

[professor_frink]

3277.50 was the low for the lowest (weekly bar) for the week ending 14/03/2003.

But this is for the actual index.

Thanks nizar, I can use that as a starting point for the time being. Would still like the futures number too if anybody has it

 

[wayneL]

Volatility returns!

 

[wayneL]

Volatility returns!

Yowza!

October jitters, or something else?

Profit reports aren't that flash, but as the bears expected, there are more corpses starting to float to the surface in the credit markets... credit crunch phase II?

 

[CanOz]

Yowza!

October jitters, or something else?

Profit reports aren't that flash, but as the bears expected, there are more corpses starting to float to the surface in the credit markets... credit crunch phase II?