International Index Trading

[Trembling Hand]

Hi Ti,
Nice chart. I think it's obvious it wont be good for the world economy; just one more domino in place?
Breakout in price mid summer, filter through to markets by October, GDP affected. All lining up now.

I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled. Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.

To keep in my contrary mood
"disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled. Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.

To keep in my contrary mood
"disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.

so you forgot about last year when it hit 80$ that was a mayor staler after the may correction then when oil fell the dow took off in july.............

if you trade positions seeing negative inflationary pressure can help you to see your profit projections.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Yeah, I'll emphasise the "don't trade like this for the ASX". The same value principles apply, but the ASX is a follower market, not a maker. I have no doubt you could tweak a system for the asx, but you're going to have to brush up on intermarket movements first, and depending on your findings, weigh the factors differently and come to different conclusions.

To keep yet again with my contrary mood.
Not sure this is all together true. the SP500 has been behind most markets as far as gains go since 2003. thats in the long term...this is a comparison of XAO & SP00


and in the short term
Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here

 

[>Apocalypto<]

To keep yet again with my contrary mood.
Not sure this is all together true. the SP500 has been behind most markets as far as gains go since 2003. thats in the long term...this is a comparison of XAO & SP00
View attachment 10085

and in the short term
Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here

very ture on the S&P TH

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled. Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.

To keep in my contrary mood
"disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.

True, inflation adjusted oil price is nowhere near the old record, but you have to look at it from a big picture perspective, ie the consumer is being hit from all sides now, so it has been shown that there is a threshold in gasoline prices that the consumer starts to reduce discretionay spending. The fact that prices are nowhere near what could be considered a secular high only makes it more relevant.

So you are saying Bernanke & co are willing to suffer a recession in order to fight inflation? They (the Feds) would be aware of the real level of monetary inflation, around 10%, so would be comfortable with the scaremongering that goes on saying they are vigilent more so on inflation, but at the first sign of negative GDP they won't hesitate to prime the economy with lower rates. Deja vu in 2002.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Interesting to see what this qtrs will be, as the housing bust has only gotten worse since the first qtr.

Not directly on topic for this thread in the near term I suppose, but relevant all the same?

 

[Arturius]

and in the short term
Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here

With 24 hour markets, they all kind of follow each other though. The key is, what shatters confidence, and what makes investors upbeat? What news affects the most people? No system works by following another market as some sort of LAG, otherwise we could all be rich. The key is, to factor in the right things.

 

[CanOz]

The key is, what shatters confidence, and what makes investors upbeat? What news affects the most people? No system works by following another market as some sort of LAG, otherwise we could all be rich. The key is, to factor in the right things.

If anyone here doubts this, you should watch the markets and the way they all react simultaneously to US economic data recently...i remember watching one night when some data came out that was critical to the US economy and the reaction was amazing, GOLD moved, the US dollar moved, the SPI moved and DOW moved all at the same time...quite amazing to watch this live. Even more so to trade it i imagine.

Cheers,

 

[Trembling Hand]

If anyone here doubts this, you should watch the markets and the way they all react simultaneously to US economic data recently...i remember watching one night when some data came out that was critical to the US economy and the reaction was amazing, GOLD moved, the US dollar moved, the SPI moved and DOW moved all at the same time...quite amazing to watch this live. Even more so to trade it i imagine.

Cheers,

I don't disagree with you in that regard every trader in every market is trying to get ahead of the next trader. And moves in the biggest market will make traders react. I was just pointing out that I think the day-to-day flips and flops in the US are baked in to our market very early on the open then we run our own way. Like on Tuesday we opened up big (the reaction to rally in US) then fell all day which it turns out was a prediction of the market moves in Europe/US that night. That with the fact most other market have out preformed the US makes me think that the statement that the “the ASX is a follower market, not a maker” is not a good way to be gaming things. Hope I am making some sense?

 

[Edwood]

all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!

here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:

1min = bullish butterfly
5 min = bearish 3 drives
15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat

software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit

Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes. its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off. target 13,400 initially. no timeframe on that however.

as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important

here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!

 

[Edwood]

this guy tends to have a good balanced view & able to catch the 'big' moves so worth reading imo

doesn't think we are near a bottom on this move

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7764.htm

 

[Magdoran]

this is where the Dax left off - sitting on resistance around low of wave i of 3 down, so kept my short running

Are you still short Ed?

 

[wavepicker]

all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!

here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:

1min = bullish butterfly
5 min = bearish 3 drives
15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat

software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit

Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes. its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off. target 13,400 initially. no timeframe on that however.

as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important

here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!

Excellent chart Trade It, looks very much like Pesevanto to type symmetrical approach. Will be very interested to see what transpires this evening as this is a crucial juncture indeed

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

this is where the Dax left off - sitting on resistance around low of wave i of 3 down, so kept my short running

Certainly looks like an impulsive move down, this may well be a countertrend up. I am short this too, with a stop just above 0.75 retrace of the range down. A failure to put in a close above this level would be bearish IMO

 

[Edwood]

Are you still short Ed?

closed half tbh Magdoran, not certain where we are going so think its best to cut down on the position, will get back in if we start to roll over

 

[Edwood]

Excellent chart Trade It, looks very much like Pesevanto to type symmetrical approach. Will be very interested to see what transpires this evening as this is a crucial juncture indeed

Cheers

Hi Wavepicker - I'm Ed. seems to be a good little tool, we'll see how it pans out, could be an interesting day.

Rgds

 

[Magdoran]

closed half tbh Magdoran, not certain where we are going so think its best to cut down on the position, will get back in if we start to roll over

Good luck Ed. Are you watching the DAX now?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!

here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:

1min = bullish butterfly
5 min = bearish 3 drives
15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat

software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit

Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes. its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off. target 13,400 initially. no timeframe on that however.

as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important

here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!

Elwood is that your charting? if it is what style of analysis is it? Looks very Gann to me

 

[Magdoran]

Current musings on the S&P 500

 

[wavepicker]

Hi Wavepicker - I'm Ed. seems to be a good little tool, we'll see how it pans out, could be an interesting day.

Rgds

Aplogies Ed, slip of the old eye!! My attention to detail can be really bad at times!!

 

[Kauri]

Elwood is that your charting? if it is what style of analysis is it? Looks very Gann to me

Trade_it
Look very much like Gartley patterns, based a lot on ABC type corrections.. Pesavanto has a good book on them... can't remember the name of it but if you goooogle Larry Pesavanto and pattern recognition you should be able to find it, at Amazon possibly. Has 222, butterfly, bat, 3 drives etc patterns in it.

Cheers
Kauri