International Index Trading
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wayneL
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Was that it for the downage? The slow grind up resumes. 
As perplexing as this is, I'm not unhappy. Not one short swinger ATM.
As perplexing as this is, I'm not unhappy. Not one short swinger ATM.
wayneL
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Breaking...
NASA has announced an asteroid, As3478KL76, a chunk of rock as big as 3 suns is hurtling towards earth and will impact in 48 hours and will completely destroy the entire solar system; Dow surges 400 points.
NASA has announced an asteroid, As3478KL76, a chunk of rock as big as 3 suns is hurtling towards earth and will impact in 48 hours and will completely destroy the entire solar system; Dow surges 400 points.
ha ha ha - very funny fellahs... fear not it looks like the end might be in sight. two things to watch (sorry for the long post but worth reading):
1. Something very strange is going on -
Friday, April 11th. - 1 PM Update
China's indexes came within just a few percentage points of their 12 year resistance levels, just when the Chinese government became afraid that they couldn't control the parabolic (bubble) rise in the Shanghai.
Now, they feel that they have to intervene with measures that will stop the speculation from remaining out of control. Worldwide investors are now worried about "the what and the how" of what will be the Chinese government's solution. China's timing is bad, because anything they do is very late and could be an overkill of a problem that was close to resolving itself. One way or another, the Shanghai indexes will have a correction ... naturally or induced.
This is NOT an unexpected event like the one that occurred on February 27th. The FED, and Central Banks have anticipated the Shanghai correcting, and have damage controls in place to try and keep any panicking to overflow into other stable worldwide markets.
China's government officials will be meeting this weekend on what to do, and are very likely to make an announcement over the weekend before their markets open on Monday.
Someone's playing a game today ...
You can’t short the internally closed Shanghai Index. There is a China Xinhua 25 Index, but it is a London-based index that is skewed to capturing longer-term price movements. If the FED or "someone" wanted to "buffer" a Shanghai drop, then they could buy and drive the FXI up letting the rest of the world know that we believe in the Chinese market and avert a sympathetic panic on our major markets.
So ... guess what happened today on the (FXI) Xinhua 25 index?
These are the historical FXI volumes:
The 5 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,950,586
The 20 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,825,863
The 6 Month Average FXI Volume: 1,907,314
This morning, at 65 minutes into the trading day, the FXI's volume was 4,909,800 ... over 250% higher than the average daily volume.
Two hours into the trading day, the FXI volume was 334% higher than the 6 month average daily volume and the price was up 5.21%.
After Goldman Sachs warned about a China correction yesterday morning, I don't think they are the ones buying up the FXI. I wonder who it could be?
If this is a buffer strategy, it could backfire if China's government doesn't scare its investors this weekend. Why? Because when Chinese investors hear the FXI went up over 5%, they are going to think that they are missing out on a good run-up ... and will want to jump in instead of jumping out. That would create a real problem for the Chinese government.
Please click this link to go to your Analyses and Recommendations at this link:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
(If you are having trouble with the link, copy and paste it in your browser.)
Regards,
Marty Chenard
2. BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The banking regulator said it will ease curbs on commercial banks investments in offshore stocks.
In a statement on its website, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said it has removed equity investment restrictions on domestic banks, which under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme have not been allowed to directly invest in offshore stock markets.
The new regulations will broaden the scope of the QDII scheme, which has met with a lukewarm response to date because of the limited investment options available.
Meanwhile, the CBRC tightened its regulation on derivative investments, saying that banks cannot invest in derivatives, hedge funds or bonds rated less than "BBB".
Previously the regulation had barred direct investment in derivative products.
- potential risk for shorters that domestic Chinese banks tuck into non-domestic equity markets... I wonder how much cash they have????
1. Something very strange is going on -
Friday, April 11th. - 1 PM Update
China's indexes came within just a few percentage points of their 12 year resistance levels, just when the Chinese government became afraid that they couldn't control the parabolic (bubble) rise in the Shanghai.
Now, they feel that they have to intervene with measures that will stop the speculation from remaining out of control. Worldwide investors are now worried about "the what and the how" of what will be the Chinese government's solution. China's timing is bad, because anything they do is very late and could be an overkill of a problem that was close to resolving itself. One way or another, the Shanghai indexes will have a correction ... naturally or induced.
This is NOT an unexpected event like the one that occurred on February 27th. The FED, and Central Banks have anticipated the Shanghai correcting, and have damage controls in place to try and keep any panicking to overflow into other stable worldwide markets.
China's government officials will be meeting this weekend on what to do, and are very likely to make an announcement over the weekend before their markets open on Monday.
Someone's playing a game today ...
You can’t short the internally closed Shanghai Index. There is a China Xinhua 25 Index, but it is a London-based index that is skewed to capturing longer-term price movements. If the FED or "someone" wanted to "buffer" a Shanghai drop, then they could buy and drive the FXI up letting the rest of the world know that we believe in the Chinese market and avert a sympathetic panic on our major markets.
So ... guess what happened today on the (FXI) Xinhua 25 index?
These are the historical FXI volumes:
The 5 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,950,586
The 20 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,825,863
The 6 Month Average FXI Volume: 1,907,314
This morning, at 65 minutes into the trading day, the FXI's volume was 4,909,800 ... over 250% higher than the average daily volume.
Two hours into the trading day, the FXI volume was 334% higher than the 6 month average daily volume and the price was up 5.21%.
After Goldman Sachs warned about a China correction yesterday morning, I don't think they are the ones buying up the FXI. I wonder who it could be?
If this is a buffer strategy, it could backfire if China's government doesn't scare its investors this weekend. Why? Because when Chinese investors hear the FXI went up over 5%, they are going to think that they are missing out on a good run-up ... and will want to jump in instead of jumping out. That would create a real problem for the Chinese government.
Please click this link to go to your Analyses and Recommendations at this link:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
(If you are having trouble with the link, copy and paste it in your browser.)
Regards,
Marty Chenard
2. BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The banking regulator said it will ease curbs on commercial banks investments in offshore stocks.
In a statement on its website, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said it has removed equity investment restrictions on domestic banks, which under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme have not been allowed to directly invest in offshore stock markets.
The new regulations will broaden the scope of the QDII scheme, which has met with a lukewarm response to date because of the limited investment options available.
Meanwhile, the CBRC tightened its regulation on derivative investments, saying that banks cannot invest in derivatives, hedge funds or bonds rated less than "BBB".
Previously the regulation had barred direct investment in derivative products.
- potential risk for shorters that domestic Chinese banks tuck into non-domestic equity markets... I wonder how much cash they have????
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed higher on the day and mixed on the week Friday, after upbeat news on wholesale inflation and weak retail sales lifted hopes that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates to boost a slowing economy.
A government report showing weak April retail sales was expected by the market, after shares fell sharply Thursday when individual retailers posted bleak monthly sales.
"It seems as though investors are still looking for any reasons to enter this market, and certainly [the Dow's] triple-digit losses is a pretty good reason," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
Georges Yared of Yared Research said, "The market just took a healthy dip yesterday. But for today, it was back to the races."
DOW comment - I think I'm beginning to like this logic. Turning more into a 'short the rallys' type of market I think, as it enters a whip saw phase while all the above bobble heads keep the closed loop of perpetual blinkered optimism paradigm bubbling along.
Bull traps ahead.
wayneL
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It's bizarre. Interest rates are seemingly the only fundamental consideration at all in this market. In fact, this whole rally was sparked by the Fed holding rates and the use of vaguely dovish language by Helicopter Ben and his goons. This was done in response to an obviously slowing economy.
Bullish? WTF? Thank that controversial Jewish Rabbi of 2000 years ago that I'm a techie. I'd be broke if I traded on my view of the US economy.
FXI came up on my early session scan. Went long delta to see what comes out of it.
This is ridiculous! A confirmed bear and I'm buying with ears pinned back
might not be a silly move Wayne - if the Chinese manage to take some pressure out of their domestic market in a controlled way and at the same time let their banks loose on international equities....
got an old PC out today & was looking through some Dow charts that I'd put together last year. this one was created on 8 May 2006. don't use that system anymore but I'll download a months free trial & get an updated view on the P&F targets across the indices. not sure how useful they'll be short term as they're built from daily data but amazing to see some of those targets hit when at the time they didn't look do-able...
got an old PC out today & was looking through some Dow charts that I'd put together last year. this one was created on 8 May 2006. don't use that system anymore but I'll download a months free trial & get an updated view on the P&F targets across the indices. not sure how useful they'll be short term as they're built from daily data but amazing to see some of those targets hit when at the time they didn't look do-able...
CanOz
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I'd probably be inclined to wait & short on a break of your trend line there CanAussie - its tested overhead resistance around 330 four times now so if it gets through that it could rocket. but I ain't no candle expert! is that a reliable set up?
Can - when I say reliable set up I'm meaning that single candle + volume signal that you indicated?
this from market watch today:
"the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."
Slothower calculates that this means that "up to $2.3 trillion in China monies ... can now move out of China."
To put a sum like that in perspective, consider that the total value of all publicly traded stocks in this country is around $15.1 billion, according to Wilshire Associates. If even a modest fraction of the $2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see a "further parabolic advance in equities," as Slothower puts it."
if they have that big a wedge whats to stop them buying commodity producers, like RIO or BHP? I guess we'll soon find out if they are genuinely undervalued... all longer term stuff of course, doesn't mean we won't have a decent correction tomorrow. the place to watch I guess is the Hang Seng as that's probably the first place the money will go for foreign exposure, & Chinese stocks listed in the US
this from market watch today:
"the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."
Slothower calculates that this means that "up to $2.3 trillion in China monies ... can now move out of China."
To put a sum like that in perspective, consider that the total value of all publicly traded stocks in this country is around $15.1 billion, according to Wilshire Associates. If even a modest fraction of the $2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see a "further parabolic advance in equities," as Slothower puts it."
if they have that big a wedge whats to stop them buying commodity producers, like RIO or BHP? I guess we'll soon find out if they are genuinely undervalued... all longer term stuff of course, doesn't mean we won't have a decent correction tomorrow. the place to watch I guess is the Hang Seng as that's probably the first place the money will go for foreign exposure, & Chinese stocks listed in the US
professor_frink
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Ed, have you heard any other news coming out of China/Hong Kong this morning?
Obviously there was going to be a gap up this morning, but I certainly wasn't expecting the HSI to gap nearly 700 points
And then turn around and lose 150 in the space of 3 minutes. Was quite funny to watch. I really feel for anyone that bought the open
wow! that is scary Prof! I spent yesterday afternoon trawling around some Chinese sites but don't have time today, just saw that note on marketwatch
just reading some of the Chinese news papers online you get a sense for the mania thats over there - one showed a Chinese monk lining up with his meagre salary to put in a punt, students investing all of their course funds & eating porridge & steamed bread until they take their "winnings" out of the market - so there's a real push behind it. so opening the borders could just let it out globally - depends how much risk the banks want to take I guess.
impact for me - its meant that I've put some stops in - lately have been swinging with mental stops, but decided it was time to tighten things up a bit. am still looking for a pull-back fwiw, but at least am protected now.
just reading some of the Chinese news papers online you get a sense for the mania thats over there - one showed a Chinese monk lining up with his meagre salary to put in a punt, students investing all of their course funds & eating porridge & steamed bread until they take their "winnings" out of the market - so there's a real push behind it. so opening the borders could just let it out globally - depends how much risk the banks want to take I guess.
impact for me - its meant that I've put some stops in - lately have been swinging with mental stops
, but decided it was time to tighten things up a bit. am still looking for a pull-back fwiw, but at least am protected now.
professor_frink
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wow! that is scary Prof! I spent yesterday afternoon trawling around some Chinese sites but don't have time today, just saw that note on marketwatch
just reading some of the Chinese news papers online you get a sense for the mania thats over there - one showed a Chinese monk lining up with his meagre salary to put in a punt, students investing all of their course funds & eating porridge & steamed bread until they take their "winnings" out of the market - so there's a real push behind it. so opening the borders could just let it out globally - depends how much risk the banks want to take I guess.
impact for me - its meant that I've put some stops in - lately have been swinging with mental stops
scary indeed- had a valid short signal just after 12(which I chose not to take), it needed a 55 point stop. Under normal conditions, I'll have a 15-20 pt stop, and most of my winners are less than 55 pts
Might have to look at some of these Chinese papers- sounds like they would be interesting. Could you post a link to a couple?
professor_frink
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CanOz
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So if various overseas markets see this decision on Chinese foreign investment as bullish for them, the Shanghai and Shenzen markets should see this as bearish and sell off correct? Not that a logical argument is realistic in these markets...
The SSE opens at 10:30 i think.
Cheers,
The SSE opens at 10:30 i think.
Cheers,
professor_frink
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Did you see what happened at the mainland open canuck? Didn't watch it myself, but the H-shares futs are up well over 100 since 10:30 HK time, and are now up 5% on the day
CanOz
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Did you see what happened at the mainland open canuck? Didn't watch it myself, but the H-shares futs are up well over 100 since 10:30 HK time, and are now up 5% on the day
No didn't see it either, only the H shares...my GF's stocks are well up today though...i think the mainland banks will do well out of this too. Hopefully this could make for a gradual withdrawl of funds from the mainland markets into foriegn markets....time will tell.
Cheers,
