Inflation

[Smurf1976]

in fact i have documentation on how the 'unemployed ' were tallied in Australia dated 1990 i doubt that has been changed for the better

I've been selected to participate in the ABS' data collection process in the past.

Bearing in mind that it's quite invasive with the data collected and participation is in no way voluntary. If you're chosen, you're doing it and you can't legally keep too many secrets about your life.

Having been through the process, I'd be surprised if some participants didn't do things which distort the data. When everything you buy is being recorded, there'd be at least some temptation to omit mention of anything someone views as shameful or otherwise didn't want to tell the government about even where no law is being broken. Paying for sex would be an obvious example that some would probably not want to disclose but even things like alcohol, cigarettes or gambling some might view as a sin of sorts that they'd rather not admit to especially not if they're at the high end of consumption.

So I'm a bit wary of statistics yes.

 

[divs4ever]

the documentation was a directive given to a government department management

but it do show a deliberate intent to warp the data collection , so you must wonder how much has changed in the last 30 years

 

[over9k]

Yeah so anyway, fed hiked the bigger 75 points (just like the other times), markets loved it (just like the other times) and now futures are in the red the literal day after (just like the other times).

And here's the current dot plot:

 

[mullokintyre]

Yeah so anyway, fed hiked the bigger 75 points (just like the other times), markets loved it (just like the other times) and now futures are in the red the literal day after (just like the other times).

Yep, I am going to sell a few things today on the up, with the intention of buying them back cheaper later non.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

Are the markets being irrational or am i

 

[JohnDe]

1967 Australian prices at the drive-in

 

[over9k]

Are the markets being irrational or am i

Rumours of tech's demise have been greatly exaggerated (maybe).

NDX futures are still deepest in the red.



Jokes aside:



This is what I call an "area of general bullsh!t".

 

[waterbottle]

Rumours of tech's demise have been greatly exaggerated (maybe).

NDX futures are still deepest in the red.



Jokes aside:

View attachment 144649

This is what I call an "area of general bullsh!t".

chop suey

 

[frugal.rock]

Are the markets being irrational or am i

Therein lies the problem... either you both are, or, are not!
However, if the market is always "correct" it must also be rational, so one must apply sound rationale, otherwise, one may succumb to irrationality.

 

[3 hound]

This CPI does not reflect reality.

My earliest awareness of economics was hearing adults say this phrase when I was a child. Now I'm old and I am still hearing the same phrase.

As much as many economists try and pass themselves off as technical people or try and promote economics as a science - economists just aren't technical people, and economics just isn't a science.

 

[divs4ever]

My earliest awareness of economics was hearing adults say this phrase when I was a child. Now I'm old and I am still hearing the same phrase.

As much as many economists try and pass themselves off as technical people or try and promote economics as a science - economists just aren't technical people, and economics just isn't a science.

of course it is a science ,
it is the science of twisting figures irresponsibly , now IF the figures were twisted responsibly ( gross anomalies incur a jail sentence ) THAT is accounting

 

[Value Collector]

Yep, I am going to sell a few things today on the up, with the intention of buying them back cheaper later non.
Mick

Inflation is a weird one though, in that it can definitely cause prices to fall for financial assets in the short term, but you have to balance that with the fact that inflation will push prices of things up over time, so you don’t want to sell quality assets and end up holding cash as the value of those assets is pushed up by inflation, especially if holding those assets would have rewarded you with income, and saved you transaction fees.

For example I know a person who recently sold their home and is now renting because they are convinced a large drop in home prices will give them an opportunity for a wind fall trading profit. This might turn out to be true, but it much also turn out that they end up holding cash that’s dropping in real value while after a few gitters inflation bolsters house prices and we don’t see a drop.

 

[divs4ever]

inflation is Central Bank money-printing

what is being touted as 'inflation' is different this time because you have supply-chain disruptions accelerating the excess of easy credit in the financial whirlpool ( plenty of credit but less suitable places to use the credit /debt )

now as i read the data THIS TIME you have an inventory problem in new homes , there are several constraints on completing a new home , so there will be SOME pressure to keep new houses rising to offset rising interest rates and people choosing to ( or forced to ) sell their existing homes

so there is a possibility for existing home prices to drop but new homes to remain steady ( maybe even rise )

now an unusual factor here is the 'work from home ' trend ( if it continues ) no longer do SOME workers need to go to the city ( office ) regularly .. so do we see a drop in city( and suburban ) house prices , but rural towns/acreage properties hold or increase in price ( after all we are still in the land of 'easy credit ' )

 

[divs4ever]

remember the FORCED seller nearly always gets a kick in the guts , the other folks can wait ( and maybe rent the place out for a while )

 

[moXJO]

They fight inflation with deflationary measures. Trying to curb spending means inflation tends to not last for long periods.

Although the various central banks seem to be stuffing round.

 

[waterbottle]

US has now reported a 2nd negative GDP figure... Markets loved it

 

[Value Collector]

inflation is Central Bank money-printing

what is being touted as 'inflation' is different this time because you have supply-chain disruptions accelerating the excess of easy credit in the financial whirlpool ( plenty of credit but less suitable places to use the credit /debt )

now as i read the data THIS TIME you have an inventory problem in new homes , there are several constraints on completing a new home , so there will be SOME pressure to keep new houses rising to offset rising interest rates and people choosing to ( or forced to ) sell their existing homes

so there is a possibility for existing home prices to drop but new homes to remain steady ( maybe even rise )

now an unusual factor here is the 'work from home ' trend ( if it continues ) no longer do SOME workers need to go to the city ( office ) regularly .. so do we see a drop in city( and suburban ) house prices , but rural towns/acreage properties hold or increase in price ( after all we are still in the land of 'easy credit ' )

Yep, although it’s not just “printing money” it’s increasing the money supply which includes increasing credit.

The inflation we see is the result of the total money supply increasing and circulating at a faster rate than the total supply of goods and services available for trading.

As you pointed out this is due in large part at the moment from a reduction in the total goods and services available rather than a massive increase in the money supply.

By raising interest rates the Central Banks are hoping to reduce the available credit, and hence reduce the total money supply to closer match the total goods and services circulating.

 

[divs4ever]

They fight inflation with deflationary measures. Trying to curb spending means inflation tends to not last for long periods.

Although the various central banks seem to be stuffing round.

actually all they need to do is reduce the velocity of money ( i have no intention of washing my mouth out )

which is counter-intuitive to any government facing re-election ( which survive on INCREASING money velocity so as to increase tax-harvest and kick-backs )

UNFORTUNATELY the higher powers have put bank bail-ins on the table ( so your saving are not completely safe in the banks ) the government continues to spend/borrow recklessly ( so good luck with those bonds )

** Although the various central banks seem to be stuffing round. **

i think the phrase you mean is 'stuffed up ' ( whether intentional or not ) they have got the timing badly wrong , if the US mid-term election results are rejected by a large sector of the population ( either side ) the economy is likely to descend into crisis .. taking out the global reserve currency

 

[over9k]

US has now reported a 2nd negative GDP figure... Markets loved it

Expectation vs reality. If things aren't as bad as expected, we play ball.

I'm now getting full on FOMO for a SOXL play. Even crypto's back on the menu now.

 

[redsmartie]

actually all they need to do is reduce the velocity of money ( i have no intention of washing my mouth out )

which is counter-intuitive to any government facing re-election ( which survive on INCREASING money velocity so as to increase tax-harvest and kick-backs )

UNFORTUNATELY the higher powers have put bank bail-ins on the table ( so your saving are not completely safe in the banks ) the government continues to spend/borrow recklessly ( so good luck with those bonds )

** Although the various central banks seem to be stuffing round. **

i think the phrase you mean is 'stuffed up ' ( whether intentional or not ) they have got the timing badly wrong , if the US mid-term election results are rejected by a large sector of the population ( either side ) the economy is likely to descend into crisis .. taking out the global reserve currency

There has been a steady flow of *bananas going to the monkey at the top so the term "inflation" means he gets less bananas. LOL