Inflation

[over9k]

Glad I asked you.
Admittedly, I'm pretty lazy that the option of not doing anything was already high.

Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:

It is difficult to make any decisions with the Trump rapid action coursing through all fundamentals. One of his aims was to have a strong $USD which seems difficult to imagine given his other decisions.

gg

But it's because of this.

I've made *no* trades in like 3 weeks just FYI.

 

[over9k]

Musing:

Libs/dutton seem to be increasingly likely (overwhelmingly likely) to win the coming election. Markets will obviously be pricing this in to, you know, everything.

 

[over9k]

What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe?

If nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.

We have an entire generation of battle-hardened afghanistan veterans with all the best equipment in existence at their disposal. It would be a massacre.

 

[divs4ever]

Well there is also the EU nations that have been relying on US aid, not in direct monetary terms, but in the fact they have spent nothing on defence for years.

Trump highlighted it the first time he was in office and now the EU is in a position of being exposed to the Russia/Ukraine issue and having limited resources to deal with it.
As is being shown with the optical cable cuts and the lack of fire power.

What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe? Does the EU have any way of countering it?

Interesting times.

some of those was what i was hinting at , add in Japan if Trump down-sized some of those military bases some nations would have a terrible economy ( all those military dudes spend some cash locally )

 

[divs4ever]

If nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.

We have an entire generation of battle-hardened afghanistan veterans with all the best equipment in existence at their disposal. It would be a massacre.

NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bare

not so important until the retired veterans have to be re-trained with the new stuff ( and all those lights and buttons and stuff )

BTW the Germans thought that as did Napoleon , in 1945 they got all the way to Berlin

 

[over9k]

NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bare

not so important until the retired veterans have to be re-trained with the new stuff ( and all those lights and buttons and stuff )

BTW the Germans thought that as did Napoleon , in 1945 they got all the way to Berlin

Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.

It's not a concern. Really. It's only a concern once they get stomped and realise that nukes are their only option left. Strong countries don't use nukes in the way that strong people don't use guns/knives. You only use the nuke/knife when you know you can't win the conventional fight.

 

[divs4ever]

Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.

It's not a concern. Really. It's only a concern once they get stomped and realise that nukes are their only option left. Strong countries don't use nukes in the way that strong people don't use guns/knives. You only use the nuke/knife when you know you can't win the conventional fight.

so who is the only nation to use nuclear bombs in a war ?

and they did it to foil Russia from invading Japan

 

[moXJO]

Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:

View attachment 193503

But it's because of this.

I've made *no* trades in like 3 weeks just FYI.

I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.

I was thinking a pause for a bit, but it's hard to tell with Trump in command.

 

[over9k]

I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.

I was thinking a pause for a bit, but it's hard to tell with Trump in command.

I'm just holding. BOIL for a degen play if you want to do something risky. It runs on geopolitical tensions rising.

 

[over9k]

AUD dropped below 61 U.S a few hours ago. Recovered since but I reckon we've got maybe a month before we crack the 59's.

AUD now on a tear, comically.