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Inflation

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mullokintyre said:
Inflation in OZ to 6.1 Percent.
And little liklihood it will drop any time soon.
So, do we get25, 50, 75 or 100 BPS from the RBA??
Mick
Click to expand...
The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, the trimmed mean, beat market estimates. This keeps the central bank’s forecasts of 7% inflation this year intact, and warrants the need for higher interest rates.

However, the softer-than-expected headline CPI print seems to have erased bets on a more aggressive 75bps move by the RBA for the time being.

Should be interesting to see how market speculation develops leading up to Tuesday’s meeting, and what impact tonight’s Fed decision has as well.
 
CPI at 6.1%.
What are they actually measuring? Spend a day in my life getting petrol, having thd kids at school and shopping in the supermarket. Nothing fancy like heating the house or whatever.
This CPI does not reflect reality. I'm starting to think this measure is irrelevant and does not reflect the lives and drop in living standards for the common man/women/people/they.

I still don't understand why the nominal interest rate doesn't reflect inflation plus cash rate?
 

Simple explanation here -

 



Inflation and its Measurement | Explainer | Education

This series provides short, concise explanations for various economics topics.
www.rba.gov.au
 
Every time the data comes back unfavourably they change the way they record/count it to make it look better. Take unemployment for example - did you know that if you work even 1 hour in the last fortnight the government counts you as employed?

Now would you consider 1 hour a fortnight to be "employed"? No?

Right, now assume every other government data point is fudged in some kind of similiar manner and work your way out from there.

Official stats are about as honest as the politicians that decide how to measure them.
 
Think even working for the dole counts as working or doing a random course and upskilling to stay on the dole shifts you out of the unemployed bracket
 
over9k said:
Every time the data comes back unfavourably they change the way they record/count it to make it look better. Take unemployment for example - did you know that if you work even 1 hour in the last fortnight the government counts you as employed?
Click to expand...

Not quite.

​
Less than 50 people in the sample of 50,000 report they only work one hour. That works out to be 15,000 people out of around 12 million employed (or 0.1%) and movements in this number are not large enough to affect total employment.​
​
The ABS defines people as 'employed' if they work one hour or more in the reference week. The vast majority of part-time employed people work more than 15 hours.​
​
The 'one hour rule' is used internationally and allows employment figures to be compared with other countries. It has been used in Australia since the Labour Force Survey began, enabling comparisons to be made over a long period of time.​
​
The ABS also has a range of other measures, such as underemployment, that help to understand how many people are fully employed, and how many would like to be working more.​

Labour Force Explained

www.abs.gov.au
 
Yes quite. I wasn't commenting on how many people work 1 hour, just that 1 hour is considered "employed". Let's say it was one evening shift a week flipping burgers and so you worked 10 hours in the last fortnight - is that employed? Are you employed on one shift a week?

To even use their own line here, I wouldn't consider 15 hours a week employed either. I'd consider income above a certain point (enough to cover a certain level of basic living expenses or what have you) to be employed as employed implies you can stand on your own two feet financially speaking. That's the purpose of employment so it's where the line for "good enough" should be IMO. A doctor does not consider you healthy if they only fix half of your health issues so we shouldn't be considering you employed if you only make enough to cover half of basic living expenses.

But all of this is besides the point. My point is not that I think things should be counted in ABC way, just that they are counted in ways that you might not think that they are.

Let's apply this to inflation - if house prices soared 25% but ordinary everyday items didn't move, do we have a 0% inflation rate?

As I said, my point here is not actually to argue about how the numbers should be counted, just that they way they do it is, shall we say, questionable.
 

You said "Every time the data comes back unfavourably they change the way they record/count it to make it look better. Take unemployment for example - did you know that if you work even 1 hour in the last fortnight the government counts you as employed?"

You are incorrect.

I showed you the reason you are incorrect and a link to read. And now you have moved the goal posts.

Yes, I considered 10 hour paid work as employed.

(of a person) having a paid job.​
having a job working for a company or another person​


 
Wrong again. You've strawmanned. I never said they changed it to 1 hour counting as employed in response to bad employment data, I said that they count the data in a questionable way and they change how they do this when the numbers aren't favourable. Do you not think that they might have counted it in the way that they have right from the outset for a less than noble reason?

The very fact that you consider 10 hours to be "employed" and I do not is precisely what proves my point.

If you want to get really argumentative, the CPI basket of goods is changed all the time, which, considering that this is a thread about INFLATION, and someone was asking why the numbers seem so off, was my point all along.
 
why not an accurate headline

like Germany delays certification of Nordstream 2

but Russia won't make a fuss about that as it now sees ( most of ) Europe as HOSTILE

i suspect they will quite happily watch Europe implode , throwing a lifeline to a few select nations ( Hungary , Serbia , maybe Turkey although if Turkey joins BRICS the BRICS cooperative would help then )
 
they WERE doing that in Australia for a period ( maybe still are ) ( one hour paid employment per fortnight and in once case one hour per fortnight UNPAID as prescribed by a mental health professional )

in fact i have documentation on how the 'unemployed ' were tallied in Australia dated 1990 i doubt that has been changed for the better

so therefore as biased as 'street-level ' data is , i take that as a reference point
 

This just shows the sillyness of relying on the 'headline' figure.

What we need is a breakdown of what percentage of the sample are working n hours per week from 1 hour up to 40+
 


Here's your story of the last 6 months. It's all it is and is going to be for quite a while.
 
over9k said:
View attachment 144618

Here's your story of the last 6 months. It's all it is and is going to be for quite a while.
Click to expand...

Supposedly PCE > GDP when the biggest issue right now is controlling inflation. In fact, GDP no longer matters anymore because recession is being redefined (thank you St. Yellen)

Remains to be seen if JPowell will follow through on rate hikes. The trend is for accelerating rate hikes with surprises for the past two. It would make sense for them to lift by 100bps, not meeting in August and reconsider in September. But what do I know, i'm just a monkey with a trading account.
 
i see your logic , but suspect the Fed fears the political backlash ( and if the market implodes , that might include some very powerful critics )

if the Fed really cared about the economy it would ACTUALLY tighten and would have started hiking earlier
 
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