Inflation

[qldfrog]

Inflation regardless of IR:

Fears small business could go bust over skyrocketing power prices

9now.nine.com.au

 

[over9k]

So apparently, the americans, who buy everything on credit, are now starting to default on their car repayments in huge numbers.

Hmm, I wonder what could be next?

 

[over9k]

You will own nothing and enjoy it;

https://www.designboom.com/design/brownstone-shared-housing-capsulte-pods-shared-living-05-05-2022/

Welcome to socialist hell.

Soycialist.

The soyviet union, if you will.

 

[3 hound]

The cognitive dissonance between the soycialist fantasy and fetish held by privileged rich white kids in the West and actual real people that have lived it is staggering bordering on a full psychotic break with reality.

 

[moXJO]

S&P500 index already down over 23% from its high at the beginning of this calendar year.

Look at random ASX300 stocks and there's quite a few that have had serious declines, 50%+

If this is the beginning then does that mean you're basically expecting an outright crash?

My own view is somewhat the opposite. There's a rapidly growing level of media attention and articles about falling stocks and so on. That usually occurs much nearer the bottom than the top so I'm thinking we need one more washout then that could be it. Possibly.....

Most bear cycles are lucky to last months, up to two years. A lot of the talk is that we will see a nasty crash these next few months. I've been waiting on this one a couple of years. Market exuberance surprised me.

I think there was a lot of froth and a lot of shares overshot to the upside these last few years. Valuations seem out of whack.

In saying the above, once we do get a clear out the market (which is generally under 2 years at its worst), it then moves to a bull. We have had declined for a while now. Should be some good opportunities to pick up some cheap stock. You have to be able to turn your bear thinking on a dime. So don't get caught in the "end of the world" mindset and miss the boat.

I'm expecting depressed real world assets as business collapse and also across various markets. Realistically our government can't let everything drop to much. So there's a limit on interest rates as debt is just ridiculous on things like housing.

I've been dribbling into a couple of commodity plays and will probably pick up some tech soon. Need a lot more froth off though.

 

[Tropico]

Looks as though CBA are getting in early, the rest to follow:
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has increased its fixed mortgage rates by a huge 1.4 per cent, just days before the next Reserve Bank board meeting.

 

[Belli]

Looks as though CBA are getting in early, the rest to follow:
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has increased its fixed mortgage rates by a huge 1.4 per cent, just days before the next Reserve Bank board meeting.

Different animal and headline a little misleading.

The rates are not based on any RBA one but that on the open market from institutional investors and the like and at what rate they will sell the cash for.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So apparently, the americans, who buy everything on credit, are now starting to default on their car repayments in huge numbers.

Hmm, I wonder what could be next?

I myself, in an attempt to help the economy and fight inflation have stopped buying porridge in sachets and have returned to buying Uncle Tobys by the kg. when it is on special.

It was a chilly 18C. this morning at the hotel, but nonetheless the extra time spent making porridge these winter mornings is nothing compared to the scourge of inflation.

gg

 

[Tropico]

Different animal and headline a little misleading.

The rates are not based on any RBA one but that on the open market from institutional investors and the like and at what rate they will sell the cash for.

You are correct in that it could be inferred as misleading. however both points are true: "the CBA has increased it's fixed term interest rates", and, it is "just days before the next Reserve Bank board meeting". Edit: the journalists are good at that.
To what extent the fixed rates by CBA (and/or others that no doubt will follow) and the RBA cash rate are related can be discussed at some length.
There doesn't seem to be any speculation about what the RBA will do, everyone seems to be holding their breath till the new financial year.

 

[Belli]

You are correct in that it could be inferred as misleading. however both points are true: "the CBA has increased it's fixed term interest rates", and, it is "just days before the next Reserve Bank board meeting". Edit: the journalists are good at that.
To what extent the fixed rates by CBA (and/or others that no doubt will follow) and the RBA cash rate are related can be discussed at some length.
There doesn't seem to be any speculation about what the RBA will do, everyone seems to be holding their breath till the new financial year.

Yeah, fixed rates are priced to bonds which are expensive now. Plus the Fed Guvmnt is no longer buying them.

 

[againsthegrain]

I myself, in an attempt to help the economy and fight inflation have stopped buying porridge in sachets and have returned to buying Uncle Tobys by the kg. when it is on special.

It was a chilly 18C. this morning at the hotel, but nonetheless the extra time spent making porridge these winter mornings is nothing compared to the scourge of inflation.

gg

Next step is making it with water instead of milk. Its not that bad if you add some honey for flavour

 

[wayneL]

Next step is making it with water instead of milk. Its not that bad if you add some honey for flavour

A carb blast too.

Hyperinsulinemia, anyone?

 

[eskys]

You make porridge, I make porridge. Whatever we do, don't make rocket fuel out of it.... and we'll eat our porridge when it's just right........US market not right tonight, deep red

 

[over9k]

The cognitive dissonance between the soycialist fantasy and fetish held by privileged rich white kids in the West and actual real people that have lived it is staggering bordering on a full psychotic break with reality.

My favourite so far has been meghan markle.

I mean just take a moment to marinade in the fact that we were being lectured on our privilege by a literal princess.

 

[over9k]

Same story for everything - worst ever, worst for 40 years, worst since .com bust, worst since great depression, on and on and on it goes.


Meanwhile, even after its plunge over the last ~3 weeks, NRGU is still up 70% for the year. If you'd bought on 1 jan and sold at peak you'd have roughly 5X'd your money.




Famous last words but it looks like we might have found a tentative support level.

 

[divs4ever]

Sell to who??

Blackrock seems to be a keen accumulator , but there will be other buyers ( at a price , but maybe not a generous one )

 

[waterbottle]

US Atlanta Fed now reporting GDPNow figure of -1.0%.
The Recession is here. Now we wait for it to be official.
Energy and commodity stocks down big time, which makes sense if market now trying to price in a recession.

 

[3 hound]

US Atlanta Fed now reporting GDPNow figure of -1.0%.
The Recession is here. Now we wait for it to be official.
Energy and commodity stocks down big time, which makes sense if market now trying to price in a recession.View attachment 143511

As late as yesterday the US Fed thru Powell publicly stated the economy ((US) is objectively in great shape, basically said it's booming.

The Whitehouse can not stop boasting how fantastic and strong the US economy is.

You guys are clearly all wrong.

 

[waterbottle]

As late as yesterday the US Fed thru Powell publicly stated the economy ((US) is objectively in great shape, basically said it's booming.

The Whitehouse can not stop boasting how fantastic and strong the US economy is.

You guys are clearly all wrong.

Rhetoric can always change.

Chair Powell didn't have a closed-door meeting with Biden in Q1 just to explain to him the economy is booming....

 

[qldfrog]

As late as yesterday the US Fed thru Powell publicly stated the economy ((US) is objectively in great shape, basically said it's booming.

The Whitehouse can not stop boasting how fantastic and strong the US economy is.

You guys are clearly all wrong.

Gdp at -1%.inflation at nearly 10%
That basically means the economy/wealth of the US has fallen by 10%???
In real term..not in $ number i mean