Inflation

[3 hound]

Macron bails up Biden and asks him to increase oil production - very bizarre exchange.

Go to 1.30.




Our boy Biden looks completely confused and clueless and remains speechless until his handlers get him out there.....the most powerful man on earth.

 

[qldfrog]

Macron bails up Biden and asks him to increase oil production - very bizarre exchange.

Go to 1.30.




Our boy Biden looks completely confused and clueless and remains speechless until his handlers get him out there.....the most powerful man on earth.

Or maybe we should all cry... luckily,we can blame it on Trump... can't we?

 

[over9k]

HMMMMMMMM. Energy screaming up when everything else is slaughtered you say?




Quite a bit off the lows now






Annoying, bought some NRGU & GUSH right before the drop/as it looked like turning



It's not a very long trend admittedly but by the last two graphs we do appear to now be on one. Annoyed at myself for not putting a buy in where the price would have clipped the trend on both (382/144 respectively). Both would been absolutely perfect. That'll teach me.

We do seem to be back on trend though, even if after a brief step down.

 

[waterbottle]

Official US GDP figures are due out tonight. If the slew of economic data is to be believed + GDPNow predictions, we should be heading to 0%.

 

[mullokintyre]

Nah, with the amount being spent on Ukraine, climate change, affirmative action, gender equality, and transporting immigrants across the southern border, it will be positive.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The Garpal Gumnut Inflation Measure ( GGIM ) is not as pessimistic for Australian inflation as many on this thread.

There will be limited inflation.

The hotel Inflation Team have been reporting back from local shopping centres, Coles, Liquorland, KMart, as well as Officeworks, Ultratune and the busy tradie, mine supporting and manufacturing businesses in Townsville and see no great rise in essentials.

Inessentials will be hit. Not essentials. = No inflation.

gg

 

[moXJO]

Europe and UK inflation still looks pretty bad. US apparently is easing inflation worries, but that just looks like a recession in the making.

I still think it's just a grind out of excess cash. Unless, of course, I see government cash splashes. And so far, the language seems to be centred round a recession or "challenging times". So seems to be "prep" language.

Expect it to be that this is the beginning of a reset of markets. Excessive cash tide is flowing out.

 

[JohnDe]

Europe and UK inflation still looks pretty bad. US apparently is easing inflation worries, but that just looks like a recession in the making.

I still think it's just a grind out of excess cash. Unless, of course, I see government cash splashes. And so far, the language seems to be centred round a recession or "challenging times". So seems to be "prep" language.

Expect it to be that this is the beginning of a reset of markets. Excessive cash tide is flowing out.

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood says the U.S. is already in a recession

“We think we are in a recession,” Wood said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday. “We think a big problem out there is inventories... the increase of which I’ve never seen this large in my career. I’ve been around for 45 years.”

The innovation-focused investor said inflation has turned out to be hotter than she had expected due to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks.

Inflation And Inventories Pose ‘Big Problem’

The money manager’s comments come a week after Elon Musk, whose Tesla is among one of Ark’s biggest holdings, called a recession in the U.S. “inevitable” and said a downturn would “more likely than not” occur in the near term, though he didn't offer a specific time line.

 

[over9k]

Europe and UK inflation still looks pretty bad. US apparently is easing inflation worries, but that just looks like a recession in the making.

I still think it's just a grind out of excess cash. Unless, of course, I see government cash splashes. And so far, the language seems to be centred round a recession or "challenging times". So seems to be "prep" language.

Expect it to be that this is the beginning of a reset of markets. Excessive cash tide is flowing out.

Seasonality.

 

[moXJO]

Seasonality.

Chicken salt thanks.

 

[Smurf1976]

Expect it to be that this is the beginning of a reset of markets.

S&P500 index already down over 23% from its high at the beginning of this calendar year.

Look at random ASX300 stocks and there's quite a few that have had serious declines, 50%+

If this is the beginning then does that mean you're basically expecting an outright crash?

My own view is somewhat the opposite. There's a rapidly growing level of media attention and articles about falling stocks and so on. That usually occurs much nearer the bottom than the top so I'm thinking we need one more washout then that could be it. Possibly.....

 

[qldfrog]

Feds will chicken out on tightening, and will QE again..one way or another
So another wave of interest rate increase, with another market fall and panic starting and then get ready for a stellar jump...when the Feds capitulate with inflation going ballistic/fiat currency losing all trust
That is when you need gold silver..not sure when this will happen so heavy PM already , will try to have enough cash for the rebound..and try to sell my shorts at the right time..easier said than done...

 

[waterbottle]

US Q1 GDP revised lower to -1.6% instead of -1.5%. Not much, but it's not going to be pretty if the GDP Now predictions are correct (more negative news).
This will confirm a technical recession. Will be interesting to see what happens then....

 

[Smurf1976]

Feds will chicken out on tightening, and will QE again..one way or another

My thinking is that the media narrative cranking up signals this isn't anywhere near as far away as the market seems to be thinking.

Just needs a single data point showing a decline in US inflation and some backing with either negative GDP or a further fall in the major stock indices and that'll be it I expect....

 

[waterbottle]

The US, UK & European central bankers all due to speak at 0000hrs... is this the boiling frog moment?

 

[waterbottle]

From the ECB Forum:

Summary thanks to DailyFX team

Economy can withstand tighter monetary poli:
- The aim is to have growth moderate
- There are pathways to go back to 2% inflation with strong labor market
- Events of last few months made our job more challenging
- Pathways have gotten narrower $USD $SPX $NDX

#Powell: There is a risk we would go too far, but it is not the biggest risk $SPX $NDX

ECB’s Lagarde: Need To Wait For Eurozone Inflation Data On Friday #ECB


#Bailey: When asked about 50 bps hikes says if we see greater persistence of inflation, we will have to act more forcefully $GBPUSD

This is the Volcker strategy modified for 2022. The major Western central banks are acting in unison. The strategy is to slam inflation at any cost, recession or not. All are in agreement that not controlling inflation will be more disastrous than excessive interest rate hikes.

 

[waterbottle]

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO ousted as sales collapse 27%

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO gets ousted after a brutal quarter.

finance.yahoo.com

First Target, now Bed, bath & beyond! Retail is collapsing. 27% drop in sales is huge! If we aren't in a recession already, we'll be there soon.

 

[Smurf1976]

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO ousted as sales collapse 27%

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO gets ousted after a brutal quarter.

finance.yahoo.com

First Target, now Bed, bath & beyond! Retail is collapsing. 27% drop in sales is huge! If we aren't in a recession already, we'll be there soon.

A recession is one way to cut inflation, especially so if it gets the oil price down.

I note also the flat yield curve. Looking at the US market, 2 year Treasury currently 3.081% whilst 10 year is 3.107% and 30 year is 3.225% so all much the same.

Won't be long before we see an inversion is my thinking.

 

[over9k]

From the ECB Forum:

Summary thanks to DailyFX team



This is the Volcker strategy modified for 2022. The major Western central banks are acting in unison. The strategy is to slam inflation at any cost, recession or not. All are in agreement that not controlling inflation will be more disastrous than excessive interest rate hikes.

Yep, markets deep into the red as a result. Also the end of the quarter/half so lots of red.

 

[over9k]

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO ousted as sales collapse 27%

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO gets ousted after a brutal quarter.

finance.yahoo.com

First Target, now Bed, bath & beyond! Retail is collapsing. 27% drop in sales is huge! If we aren't in a recession already, we'll be there soon.

lol