Inflation

[waterbottle]

I Agree! re INFLATION!
Am I missing out on something?

Which Commodity is at its High this Weekend?

Tough Talk from the Fed Works!
It's All We Need
IMHO The Inflation Game is Over
Very Small Interest Rates hikes from next month
Steady as She goes

View attachment 143276

Interesting. Why do you think inflation is under control?

I have already
Yesterday!

Do you think this is going to be a V-shaped correction though?

 

[over9k]

This is what the pointy shoes that own a lot of the media are saying now.

"We'd priced rates at 4% but we think it'll be more like 3.25-3.5 now"


UBS head at some conference is banging on about how the U.S economy has shown "tremendous resilience" and that all the rate hikes will do is return things to "trend growth".

The media fix/narrative (pump) is now well & truly in folks.

 

[waterbottle]

We haven't even seen next quarter earnings yet...

 

[over9k]

We haven't even seen next quarter earnings yet...

This is not how pump & dump works bottle lol

 

[divs4ever]

Interesting. Why do you think inflation is under control?



Do you think this is going to be a V-shaped correction though?

more likely another K-shaped , but am thinking a W-shape is possible ( over a U or L for the shorter term ) too much fundamental stuff crumbling in the background as i see it

this is just jaw-boning taken to a new level ( IMO )

 

[over9k]

I have absolutely no idea why. No clue at all.

(Maybe they don't have any spare cash left over after all their fuel, food etc bills have skyrocketed?)

 

[over9k]

I have already
Yesterday!

Looking like a good start to your bet chaza, mind me asking you what you bought?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Looking like a good start to your bet chaza, mind me asking you what you bought?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

A Hoisted a few LITHIUM Classifications
My Mainsail was the Magnificent but sometimes Merciless LKE
I published my Chart and Reasoning on Thursday 23 June in my ASF thread
"Storm at Sea"
(Average Price paid 0.74c)

 

[JohnDe]

Companies with interests in countries on the verge of food, fuel and currency issues will be interesting to watch.

A wave of unrest is coming. Here’s how to avert some of it
Soaring food and fuel prices are adding to pre-existing grievances

Jesus said that man does not live by bread alone. Nonetheless, its scarcity makes people furious. The last time the world suffered a food-price shock like today’s, it helped set off the Arab spring, a wave of uprisings that ousted four presidents and led to horrific civil wars in Syria and Libya. Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the markets for grain and energy once again. And so unrest is inevitable this year, too.

Soaring food and fuel prices are the most excruciating form of inflation. If the prices of furniture or smartphones rise, people can delay a purchase or forgo it. But they cannot stop eating. Likewise, transport costs are baked into every physical good, and most people cannot easily walk to work. So when food and fuel grow dearer, standards of living tend to fall abruptly. The pain is most intense for city dwellers in poor countries, who spend a huge part of their income on bread and bus fares. Unlike rural folk, they cannot grow their own crops—but they can riot.

Many governments want to ease the pain, but are indebted and short of cash after covid-19. The average poor country’s public debt-to-gdp ratio is nearly 70% and it is climbing. Poor countries also pay higher interest rates, which are rising. Some of them will find this unsustainable. The imf says that 41 are in “debt distress” or at high risk of it.

Sri Lanka has already defaulted and melted down. Angry and hungry mobs have set fire to vehicles, invaded government buildings and spurred their reviled president into pushing out the prime minister, who is his brother. Riots have erupted in Peru over living standards, and India over a plan to cut some jobs-for-life in the army, which rankles when so many yearn for security. Pakistan is urging its citizens to drink less tea to save hard currency. Laos is on the brink of default. Anger at the cost of living doubtless contributed to Colombia’s election of a left-wing radical as president on June 19th.

The Economist has built a statistical model to examine the relationship between food- and fuel-price inflation and political unrest. It reveals that both have historically been good predictors of mass protests, riots and political violence. If our model’s findings continue to hold true, many countries can expect to see a doubling of unrest this year .

The greatest risk is in places that were already precarious: countries such as Jordan and Egypt that depend on food and fuel imports and have rickety public finances. Many such places are badly or oppressively governed. In Turkey the supply shock has accelerated ruinous inflation caused by dotty monetary policy. Around the world, the cost-of-living squeeze is adding to people’s grievances and raising the chance that they will take to the streets. This is more likely to turn violent in places with lots of underemployed, single young men. As their purchasing power falls, many will conclude that they will never be able to afford to marry and have a family. Frustrated and humiliated, some will feel they have nothing to lose if they join a riot.

Another way inflation destabilises societies is by fostering graft. When wages do not keep up with prices, officials with needy relatives find it even more tempting to extort money from the powerless. This infuriates those who are preyed on. Recall that the trigger for the Arab spring was the suicide of a Tunisian hawker, who set himself ablaze to protest against constant demands for pay-offs from dirty cops.

If unrest spreads this year, it could add to the economic pain. Investors dislike riots and revolutions. One study finds that a big outbreak of political violence typically knocks a percentage point off gdp 18 months later. The damage is worse when protesters are angry about both politics and the economy combined.

Averting the coming explosions will be hard. A good start would be to scrap policies that discourage food production, such as price controls and export curbs. Farmers in countries like Tunisia leave fertile land unploughed because they have to sell their crop to the state for a pittance. Governments should let farmers reap what they sow. Also, far less grain should be wastefully burned as biofuel.

Several countries are asking for bail-outs. International financial institutions must strike a tricky balance. Saying no could spell chaos—and do lasting harm. But so could bailing out woeful governments, by entrenching bad and unsustainable policies. Bodies such as the imf, whose negotiators arrived in Sri Lanka and Tunisia this week, should be generous but insist on reforms. They should continue to monitor carefully how their money is spent. And they should act swiftly. The longer all this anger is allowed to fester, the more likely it is to explode. ■

 

[waterbottle]

Inflation now being forecasted at 10%, although official numbers pending. This would be consistent with CPI numbers coming out of other countries. I don't see how this isn't going to end in recession-inducing interest rates if we continue on this path...

Inflation Nowcasting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the consumer price index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

www.clevelandfed.org

 

[noirua]

Companies with interests in countries on the verge of food, fuel and currency issues will be interesting to watch.

Yes, and now comes even deeper thoughts by Germany, France, Italy and Spain about the $6 billion per month wanted by Ukraine to rebuild - unless Russia wins. Germany is already being starved of gas from Russia. If Ukraine joins the EU then they will have certain rights that would mean the larger countries in the European block will have to put many more Euros into the pot.

All this arriving on their doorsteps just as recession bites.

So the Central Banks doing the ultimate hand outs of funds to the Banks will need to gradually want a far greater interest rate. If the Banks can't get funds they go to their savers who will see what is happening and scour the net for the best bargains.

Eventually inflation will fall whilst interest rates rise. So instead of savers getting up to 2% interest on their money with inflation at 10% the worm will turn. So in a few years time inflation will be 1% to 2% with interest rates at 10%. The squeeze will be horrific.

There will be an increasing flight to the US$ though the AU$ should hold up fairly well. Most other currencies will feel a strong downdraught. Third world countries may be left to their own devices.

 

[3 hound]

If Ukraine joins the EU then they will have certain rights that would mean the larger countries in the European block will have to put many more Euros into the pot.

All this arriving on their doorsteps just as recession bites.

Strategic military decision on Putin's part??

 

[3 hound]

Having not done any major new building construction in 20 years I was shocked to get a quote on a slab which costs more than the price of the brand new kit shed that is going onto it.

Dam concrete must have the highest inflation rate of all goods.

Anyone suggest a ball park figure one should pay per cubic metre of laid concrete....or use whatever the standard measure for quotes is.

 

[moXJO]

Having not done any major new building construction in 20 years I was shocked to get a quote on a slab which costs more than the price of the brand new kit shed that is going onto it.

Dam concrete must have the highest inflation rate of all goods.

Anyone suggest a ball park figure one should pay per cubic metre of laid concrete....or use whatever the standard measure for quotes is.

Call up the cement supply/truck places for a quote on cost of cement only. Give you an idea of how much they are ripping you with labour.

 

[3 hound]

Call up the cement supply/truck places for a quote on cost of cement only. Give you an idea of how much they are ripping you with labour.

Unfortunately the truck, the slab layer, the shed supplier and shed builder are essentially the same business, the joy of small town no competition.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Jerome Powell:

“The Committee is acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials.
The Committee's commitment to restoring price stability—which is necessary for sustaining a strong labor market—is unconditional.”

The full report can be found here:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2022-06-mpr-summary.htm


The market now most definitely believes that Powell is going to be super-aggressive and will implement a genuinely ‘unconditional’ policy to bring inflation down. And that a recession is unavoidable.

 

[over9k]

Unfortunately the truck, the slab layer, the shed supplier and shed builder are essentially the same business, the joy of small town no competition.

There's your answer.

 

[over9k]

View attachment 143295

I have absolutely no idea why. No clue at all.

(Maybe they don't have any spare cash left over after all their fuel, food etc bills have skyrocketed?)

Anyone else a landlord/rent anything out? I've got a tenant a fortnight behind on the rent because his diesel car's now costing him more than twice as much to fill up as it used to along with food, power, heating etc bills all increasing.

 

[over9k]

https://fortune.com/2022/06/27/supreme-court-epa-ruling-ramifications-2022/

Relevant.