Inflation

[sptrawler]

Markets are always held up on some pedestal as being able to price in events, until we have days like yesterday.

Did anyone see that cat bouncing today.

 

[JohnDe]

Also comes down to perspective and what matters to the individual.

Eg an unemployed person who wants a job has a very different perspective to that of a share trader as to when the recovery is underway.

What matters to them is a different thing so they'll perceive the timing to be very different.

Seeing as we’re on an investment forum I meant investors and economists

 

[Knobby22]

Michelle Bullock said she didn't expect an interest rate cut for at least 6 months.

She said a near-term cut in interest rates wasn't on the cards, and she wasn't expecting Australia to fall into recession at this point.

She said the board only considered lifting rates, or keeping rates steady.

So no change.

 

[divs4ever]

Michelle Bullock said she didn't expect an interest rate cut for at least 6 months.

She said a near-term cut in interest rates wasn't on the cards, and she wasn't expecting Australia to fall into recession at this point.

She said the board only considered lifting rates, or keeping rates steady.

So no change.

yep .. denial and jaw-boning

nothing has changed

 

[waterbottle]

Despite app the rebound talk, the 2 -10yr spread is back to 2bp ..

 

[over9k]

Despite app the rebound talk, the 2 -10yr spread is back to 2bp ..

Yeah it very briefly deinverted during the meltdown of the other day.

Meanwhile, after the rebound, last night was red, futures are red/flat, the slow melt might have begun.

 

[over9k]

Biden drops out. Trump policies for inflation coming november.

And if you're really shitting yourself about how no asset class can make you a buck in real terms, the most defensive of all defensive plays looks a little something like this for the year:

View attachment 181446

The only curveball on this one is trump. Even yellen is now on record saying that U.S debt levels (and the entire world's, but let's just stick with U.S on this one as the USD is the last defensive play before gold) are reaching unsustainable levels at current interest rates/budget deficits.

So either trump gets interest rates dumped (and everything predictable from that will be the play) or he doesn't and the U.S monetises the debt (pays it off with printed cash).

Should it be the latter, gold will soar.

Should it be the former, they're only delaying the inevitable monetisation (without a budget balancing, that is) anyway.


So the question is not whether to buy some gold, the question is only when to do it.

Meanwhile: Harris's odds vs trump are now positive. If you're trying to run a play reference trump vs harris economic policies then placing a bet one way or another is an excellent way to hedge. I made about 80k doing this back in 2016 for anyone doubtful about this. It's not something to be dismissed.

Trump now calling for presidents to have "some" say in interest rates.

 

[divs4ever]

Trump now calling for presidents to have "some" say in interest rates.

not both of them ( and hope RFK jr doesn't shock them all ) ??

surely you can get fixed odds at better than even money in such a tribal contest on both candidates if you time the bets correctly

 

[divs4ever]

Trump can have 'some ' say , he can remove Powell ( but he has promised not to do that ) at inauguration , and replace him with a more compliant chair OR not re-appoint him at the end of his term ( about half-way through Trump's Presidency ) and i haven't heard Trump talk about that option

however whoever is President will have to do much more than bully the Fed Chair to pull the US out of recession ( and the debt spiral )

 

[mullokintyre]

Trump can have 'some ' say , he can remove Powell ( but he has promised not to do that ) at inauguration , and replace him with a more compliant chair OR not re-appoint him at the end of his term ( about half-way through Trump's Presidency ) and i haven't heard Trump talk about that option

however whoever is President will have to do much more than bully the Fed Chair to pull the US out of recession ( and the debt spiral )

or he could set up an entirely new body to do the job.
After all, the Fed was created by an act of congress, it can be dismembered in the same way.
JP Morgan, acting as an agent of the banks after the 1907 banking crisis,
forced Woodrow Wilson and congress into the creation of the Fedral reserve system, where the 12 regional Federal Banks were charged with the printing of money.
Those acts of congress can be changed or repealed, or a new set of acts could be introduced and signed off.
There was a huge push to do something like that during the great depression when the Fed Reserve refused to act on making the great depression into something less.
it is almost impossible to believe it could happen, the fed reserve has so many people by the short and curlies no one would be gane enough.
But it is entirely possible.
Mick

 

[wayneL]

Trump can have 'some ' say , he can remove Powell ( but he has promised not to do that ) at inauguration , and replace him with a more compliant chair OR not re-appoint him at the end of his term ( about half-way through Trump's Presidency ) and i haven't heard Trump talk about that option

however whoever is President will have to do much more than bully the Fed Chair to pull the US out of recession ( and the debt spiral )

The truth is without legislation, the Fed can tell POTUS to GFY. And remember the last time a president tried to mess with the Fed.

 

[divs4ever]

or he could set up an entirely new body to do the job.
After all, the Fed was created by an act of congress, it can be dismembered in the same way.
JP Morgan, acting as an agent of the banks after the 1907 banking crisis,
forced Woodrow Wilson and congress into the creation of the Fedral reserve system, where the 12 regional Federal Banks were charged with the printing of money.
Those acts of congress can be changed or repealed, or a new set of acts could be introduced and signed off.
There was a huge push to do something like that during the great depression when the Fed Reserve refused to act on making the great depression into something less.
it is almost impossible to believe it could happen, the fed reserve has so many people by the short and curlies no one would be gane enough.
But it is entirely possible.
Mick

and that is the issue 'an act of Congress ' that den of vipers is even worse than a cabal of bankers ( at least the bankers work together to further their own interests )

 

[over9k]

China's ppi falls but not for a good reason.

 

[mullokintyre]

China's ppi falls but not for a good reason.

Just as a guess, I presume you basing the above on this chart below.
Pray tell, what do you see as the "not for a good reasn"?
Mick
From Trading Economics

 

[JohnDe]

and that is the issue 'an act of Congress ' that den of vipers is even worse than a cabal of bankers ( at least the bankers work together to further their own interests )

No offence meant to you in what I’m about to say, but your comment is part of the issue that the western world is experiencing.

Too many people think like what you have written, it is causing hatred and jealousy.

I am 100% sure that the majority of the people that get involved in civic duty and politics did so for the betterment of their constituents, community and country.

 

[mullokintyre]

No offence meant to you in what I’m about to say, but your comment is part of the issue that the western world is experiencing.

Too many people think like what you have written, it is causing hatred and jealousy.

I am 100% sure that the majority of the people that get involved in civic duty and politics did so for the betterment of their constituents, community and country.

Nah, they do it for the money.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

No offence meant to you in what I’m about to say, but your comment is part of the issue that the western world is experiencing.

Too many people think like what you have written, it is causing hatred and jealousy.

I am 100% sure that the majority of the people that get involved in civic duty and politics did so for the betterment of their constituents, community and country.

if you had been in the electorates , been in the electorates of some ( nearly all ) of my local members over the last 50 years you might disagree , it fact one was so bad the neighbouring sitting members wanted him out of Parliament , and it caused a massive rift in the party when the disliked member was 'Captain's picked ' by the national leader over better candidates.

maybe you should find a copy of 'the Union dirt files ( that they compile on everyone influential , their side or not ) and reappraise

now some DO go in with the best of intentions and do the best job they are allowed to do , but they tend to have a shortened career

Nah, they do it for the money.
Mick

or the power ,

but i do remember one talked into it by a school buddy who became a 'numbers man ' trying to build a personal fiefdom in the party


and yes it is a widespread issue but i can only vote in Australia and the state i reside in ) unless i illegally migrate to the US and vote there as well ... ( maybe if i arrived in October .... came back for Christmas .. i wonder if the CFMEU still organizes tours )

 

[over9k]

Just as a guess, I presume you basing the above on this chart below.
Pray tell, what do you see as the "not for a good reasn"?
Mick
From Trading Economics
View attachment 182300

"Stubbornly weak consumption" meaning demand side is actually too low.

It's dropped because demand is going, not because supply is improving. Same goes for their housing market (ponzi scheme) and most other things you care to think of.

China is fcuked and so is australia along with it.

 

[moXJO]

We banking on a large, or small scale Iran retaliation on Israel?

Any weird movement in the markets that anyone caught?

 

[divs4ever]

We banking on a large, or small scale Iran retaliation on Israel?

Any weird movement in the markets that anyone caught?

not so far , but did note a number of Australia focused LICs showed weakness today