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Inflation

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over9k said:
We've had negative rates since 2009 and constant debt increase since too.

They're going to inflate their way out of the debt I guarantee it.
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that is the least painful course ( for politicians and public servants )

but there is many a slip between cup and lip ( as a great aunt used to remind me )

i am keeping multiple strategies dusted off
 
So it looks like a trend has started after the walmart receipt guy went viral:

 
Yank cpi comes it at 3.3 vs 3.4 estimated. Markets fairly happy.
 
over9k said:
Update: They changed their mind. Closed deep into the red. Not looking like a good day for aus.

This miiiight be the end of this year's bull run. Might.
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Nah. Stock market closed higher.
Traders are pricing in rate cuts in September as inflation down. All good for the market. The uncertainty is the election.
I am expecting some sort of correction caused by that but it will be hard to hold the wild horses if inflation is falling.
 
Aus markets have been a total waste of time since covid. Trade them sure but they're not a long term hold.
 
over9k said:
Aus markets have been a total waste of time since covid. Trade them sure but they're not a long term hold.
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i disagree , but then i was cherry-picking right from the start of March 2020 , sure the div. payouts were a total mess in 2020/2021 but some entry prices were great .. throw in a vaccine plague ( so i bought PFP ) a Russian Military action ( so i bought BIS )

not so much fun for the ETF fans , but in my opinion 'little fish are sweet ' ( there were opportunities )

and then there are those pesky take-overs ( and demergers )

i wasn't planning to buy a super-yacht anyway , so the last 4 years have been both educational and fruitful ( depending on which inflation rate you adjust for )
 
Plenty of movement for a proactive swing trader to absolutely kill it in last 4 years . i have a handful of stock and 1 ETF ive owned for 3 weeks up 10% + in that time and i wont hold them by EOM
 
Chipp said:
Plenty of movement for a proactive swing trader to absolutely kill it in last 4 years . i have a handful of stock and 1 ETF ive owned for 3 weeks up 10% + in that time and i wont hold them by EOM
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i wouldn't claim to have 'killed it ' , i stayed more than 80% invested because many holdings were in very sweet positions , but neither was i sobbing in despair and frustration

but trading as you would recognize it is not a strong suit for me

take-overs ( many crystallizing profits ) was more of a frustration in the last 4 years

the willingness to be pro-active has helped me a lot
 
moXJO said:
Have we ever had a major correction during a US presidential election year?
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2008 most recent

divs4ever said:
depends on what you call 2020 , i would say yes , but i would expect some strong arguments for the NO case
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It is debatable , severe very short term correction in a year that finished approx 15% higher than it started . Definitely wouldnt consider a traditional economic correction like most others . 2020 was a once of unusual event , hard to judge
 
I'm mixed feelings about some of these stocks. They are at ridiculous prices, but maybe it's just the dollar devaluing and me getting old.

I haven't checked the aussie market in a while and CBA is huge in price. Last time I checked it was about $90

But I expected rates to lower by the end of the year ( generally positive for markets). But will the savings have dried up by that time?
I was seeing small signs of deflation.

I was expecting a black Swan event. But maybe Trump getting killed was supposed to be it. That Mofo has 9 lives though.

I'm not expecting AI to bring in big profits for a while during the build out. They are basically spending $600million for $60mill returns at the moment or something stupid like that.

Maybe I'm in a bearish mood for no reason
 
moXJO said:
I'm not expecting AI to bring in big profits for a while during the build out.
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AI is ripe for a bubble to form however.

A widely known perceived revolutionary technology when the market's already highly valued ticks the boxes there.

Nothing wrong with investing in a bubble, just get out in time.
 
Markets are liking the assassination attempt. He's virtually certain to win now. Trump's the superior economic manager and will get inflation down or whatever so markets are pricing the win and therefore superior policies in.
 
over9k said:
Markets are liking the assassination attempt. He's virtually certain to win now. Trump's the superior economic manager and will get inflation down or whatever so markets are pricing the win and therefore superior policies in.
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less Government hiring and an impetus toward more local manufacturing would be a predictable outcome

i am not sure inflation will be tamed , but a productivity contraction will be delayed/stalled

but we will have to wait until about February next year before any actual direction occurs ( in the US economy )

i would imagine border security will be returned to ( barely ) adequate , and that will create it's own consequences
 
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