Inflation

[over9k]

Just in case anyone's wondering what the ultimate inflation/currency collapse/defensive play is doing (gold), it just hit a new all time high


Those of us old enough to remember the GFC will be having a serious case of deja-vu right now.

 

[mullokintyre]

Those of us old enough to remember the GFC will be having a serious case of deja-vu right now.

Some of us have been having a serious case of deja-vu for some time now.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Some of us have been having a serious case of deja-vu for some time now.
Mick

Also it feels more like 1982 than the GFC.
The GFC was a short, sharp hit, this is a slow grind down to a lower level IMO.
Unless structural changes are put in place, this feels like people will need to get used to a different lifestyle.
Only my opinion.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Also it feels more like 1982 than the GFC.
The GFC was a short, sharp hit, this is a slow grind down to a lower level IMO.

74-75 wasn't much chop, either

 

[sptrawler]

74-75 wasn't much chop, either

Very true, wages went up, but inflation beat it.
The difference then though was industry was thriving, at the moment industry is dying and there isn't anything on the horizon.

 

[mullokintyre]

74-75 wasn't much chop, either

You talking about 1874 or 1974?
mick

 

[Knobby22]

Just in case anyone's wondering what the ultimate inflation/currency collapse/defensive play is doing (gold), it just hit a new all time high


Those of us old enough to remember the GFC will be having a serious case of deja-vu right now.

If Trump wins as looks certain, inflation set to rising again due to tariffs.
I understand the plan is to put 10% tariff on all foreign products and something like 60% on Chinese imports.
This will cause a major price spike and is effectively a new tax on consumers.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I heard on the News today that haircuts/barbers had gone through the roof. As has home insurance. That has been my experience when I've gone for a cut.

gg

 

[over9k]

If Trump wins as looks certain, inflation set to rising again due to tariffs.
I understand the plan is to put 10% tariff on all foreign products and something like 60% on Chinese imports.
This will cause a major price spike and is effectively a new tax on consumers.

Perhaps. Their policies have been both carrot and stick (both tariffs and subsidies at the same time). The carrot may counteract the stick from the inflation perspective.

I'd need to see *exactly* what they're going to do before I could predict the consequences with any authority.

 

[divs4ever]

Perhaps. Their policies have been both carrot and stick (both tariffs and subsidies at the same time). The carrot may counteract the stick from the inflation perspective.

I'd need to see *exactly* what they're going to do before I could predict the consequences with any authority.

most likely the subsidies will be for new companies ( miners and manufacturers starting up )

the US needs real private sector job growth

but let us wait and see , Trump underwhelmed me last time ( maybe his new administration will help him this time)

 

[mullokintyre]

According to Zero Hedge , Trumpenomics 2.0 will be a new and improved version
Personally I can't see how anything he does will make things different to the last few.
Jamie Dimon in charge is a huge negative for me, just means the big banks will screw even more out of everyone else.
Sanctions will definitely be inflationary.
Banning Tik Tok or otherwise has no impact.
Jerome Powel will do whatever the big banks want.
Bringing corporate rate lower will probably just mean more buybacks, so great for the stockmarket.
Slowing the flow of money to the military inductrial complex is a good thing, money might(big might) go into something more productive,
The big losers will be the unfortunate country bumpkins who thought Trump would bring back their good ole boy way of life,
Sadly for them, its gone for good.
Mick

Before the failed assassination attempt, before the catastrophic (for Biden) first presidential debate, Donald Trump gave Bloomberg an extensive interview in which he laid out the core tenets of Trumponomics 2.0 that will define his next presidency. Here are the key highlights:

According to the interview, if Trump wins, he will...

• enforce huge bilateral sanctions even though he claims “I don’t love sanctions,” he says. He keeps circling back to William McKinley, who he says raised enough revenue through tariffs during his turn-of-the-20th-century presidency to avoid instituting a federal income tax yet never got the appropriate credit.
• allow Jerome Powell to serve out his term as chair of the Federal Reserve, which runs through May 2026
• will lower the corporate tax rate to as low as 15%
• no longer plans to ban TikTok.
• considers Jamie Dimon to serve as secretary of the Department of the Treasury
• ambivalent (if not outright hostile) to the idea of protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression and to US efforts to punish Putin for invading Ukraine.

While the broad strokes of Trumponomics might not be different from what they were during his first term, what’s new is the speed and efficiency with which he intends to enact them. He believes he understands the levers of power much more deeply now, including the importance of selecting the right people for the right jobs. “We had great people, but I had some people that I would not have chosen for a second time,” he says. “Now, I know everybody. Now, I am truly experienced.”

 

[sptrawler]

The big losers will be the unfortunate country bumpkins who thought Trump would bring back their good ole boy way of life,
Sadly for them, its gone for good.
Mick

I think that will be the reality for most Western countries, including the EU, China's manufacturing, has all first world countries over a barrel.

 

[divs4ever]

According to Zero Hedge , Trumpenomics 2.0 will be a new and improved version
Personally I can't see how anything he does will make things different to the last few.
Jamie Dimon in charge is a huge negative for me, just means the big banks will screw even more out of everyone else.
Sanctions will definitely be inflationary.
Banning Tik Tok or otherwise has no impact.
Jerome Powel will do whatever the big banks want.
Bringing corporate rate lower will probably just mean more buybacks, so great for the stockmarket.
Slowing the flow of money to the military inductrial complex is a good thing, money might(big might) go into something more productive,
The big losers will be the unfortunate country bumpkins who thought Trump would bring back their good ole boy way of life,
Sadly for them, its gone for good.
Mick

the best outcome i can see ( terror alert a contrarian bear letting the optimism run free ) is more full-time jobs for US residents/citizens ( more blue collar than white collar ) a little wiggle room for the surviving middle-class , and less chance of a massive ( civil or global ) war

if that sounds harsh well the reality is .. it is a big fricking hole they have dug themselves into , it is going to be tough to get out

 

[over9k]

And it's a slaughter!

Worst day since 2022. My previous "this year's bull run might be over" prediction might have been accurate.

 

[Knobby22]

Alan Kohler shows some interesting graphs. worth a look.

Further rate hikes will not fix inflation

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

 

[qldfrog]

Alan Kohler shows some interesting graphs. worth a look.

Further rate hikes will not fix inflation

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

hum..I agree about insurance and the fact it makes more sense Airbnb a spare bedroom than rental ;
but saying climate change is the cause of increase of insurance and even suggestion rentals are competing with Airbnb ..yeah right
Short memory cf covid rental freeze (but not rates and charges), new laws in qld at least about renters rights, crime and urban strategies effects on premiums..at the very least here in qld....
Nevertheless, lowering IR will not affect these and lower IR will even reduce insurance companies profits so may lead to increase premiums...

 

[Knobby22]

suggestion rentals are competing with Airbnb ..yeah right

I would have thought it was economics 101. If a house can make more money as an AirBNB then the investor will logically for economic reasons do this, which increases the long term rental cost curve until demand matches supply I.e. long term rental rates increase to make them competitive with short term rentals.

Long term rentals inflation has risen in Queensland more than anywhere else, especially in coastal areas.

We literally have saturation AirBNB advertising in Melbourne at present, stating if you go on a holiday (usually to Queensland) then why would you go to a resort and share a pool with kids when you can rent a house with a pool!

The housing crisis hit Queensland hard. Jolted into action, the state has raised its game

Governments’ policy inaction and complacency bear much of the blame for the lack of affordable housing. But a new report detects signs of hope in Queensland.

theconversation.com

 

[qldfrog]

I would have thought it was economics 101. If a house can make more money as an AirBNB then the investor will logically for economic reasons do this, which increases the long term rental cost curve until demand matches supply I.e. long term rental rates increase to make them competitive with short term rentals.

Long term rentals inflation has risen in Queensland more than anywhere else, especially in coastal areas.

We literally have saturation AirBNB advertising in Melbourne at present, stating if you go on a holiday (usually to Queensland) then why would you go to a resort and share a pool with kids when you can rent a house with a pool!

The housing crisis hit Queensland hard. Jolted into action, the state has raised its game

Governments’ policy inaction and complacency bear much of the blame for the lack of affordable housing. But a new report detects signs of hope in Queensland.

theconversation.com

What is not told on the story line is that most of the unit, house or bedroom on airbnb would never have been put on a permanent market, especially now in qld with renters new "rights".
We had a little bangalow on our Brisbane hinterland property, and rented it on airbnb..when we wanted, for as long as we wanted with money received and no default.
Absolutely no way would we have taken a permanent tenant, nor would all the airbnb owners i know.
The day Airbnb will be a problem is when people will use them for accommodation in non touristy area, sleep box in outer suburbs..
Do not fall for the easy propaganda..just another way to increase taxes and bounce responsibilities

 

[over9k]

Biden drops out. Trump policies for inflation coming november.

 

[Smurf1976]

Blocked drain pipe at home today, the main one from the house to the sewer main out in the street.

Got a plumber to come and cut the tree roots out of it using a machine. All good, problem fixed, tree roots have been removed from the pipe.

Cost was 123.3% higher than the same pipe having the same cleaning done, using the same method, 6 years ago when I bought the place.

I'm not complaining about the plumber's work saying they shouldn't earn a living, just posting it as a data point for "real world" inflation.